Economists predict a fall in income of Russians by 3-5% by the end of the year

According to economists, the consequences of the sharp decline in the population's income, which occurred against the background of the pandemic in 2020, will not be quickly overcome. This should be expected at best by the end of 2022, RBC reports.

According to Natalia Orlova, chief economist of Alfa-Bank, the recovery of incomes of Russians after the failure due to the pandemic crisis will be slow - at best, they will increase by 2% in 2021 after a decline of 5% at the end of the current year. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2020 real incomes will fall by 3%, in 2021 they will grow by the same 3%, and then they will grow by 2.4-2.5%.

As economists note, the real disposable cash income of the population, which remains in the hands of residents after all mandatory payments, has been constantly decreasing from 2014 to 2017, in 2018 it increased by + 0.1%, in 2019 it increased by 1%, and by the end third quarter of 2020 fell 11% compared to 2013 data.

The pandemic had an extremely negative impact on the incomes of Russians, reducing them by 4.3% in 9 months. Even if the optimistic forecast of economists about an increase in income by 2% in 2021 is justified, by the end of the year this will only slightly reduce the lag from the "well-fed" 2013, in comparison with which the decrease in income will be not 11, but 10%.