Gave them a scare: why did Russia "deploy" nuclear missiles on the territory of Ukraine

The town itself is located 500 km from the Russian border and cannot appear as a Russian base.

Victor Kuzovkov

The Ukrainian city of Starokonstantinov is rarely heard. It is not surprising - the city is small, located in the very Ukrainian outback, far from high-profile events and internationally significant incidents. It seems that in Russia it was last remembered in the distant 1992, when 6 front-line Su-24 bombers of the newly created armed forces of Ukraine made a daring escape to Russia from an airbase located near this city. The event, of course, was not an ordinary one, which at one time caused a serious resonance in the media on both sides of the border, and yet it was quite quickly forgotten - in the chaos that then formed on the ruins of the USSR, things happened and more interesting...

And here is a new reason to remember this settlement: in the program "Smotr", dedicated to the bicentennial anniversary of the Strategic Missile Forces Military Academy. Peter the Great, which goes on the NTV channel, the city of Starokonstantinov "lit up" as a "training position 325". A close-up map of this location is shown in the frame, and it is explained that the crews of the Yars strategic intercontinental ballistic missiles are learning from this map to take starting positions for launching missiles.

That is, the territory of a neighboring state was casually designated not just as a theater of possible military actions, but as a territory deep in the Russian rear, where the military deployment of mobile strategic missile systems is possible. And the fact that the position is "educational" should not be misleading - this is not the initiative of regimental level commanders, but the official curriculum of the higher educational institution of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia. With all, as they say, following...

Of course, this turnaround has sparked an angry reaction from Ukrainian netizens. And many of them, not understanding the situation, hastened to declare that Russia is practicing nuclear strikes on the territory of Ukraine, in particular, on the aforementioned city of Starokonstantinov. Let's hasten to calm them down - this is not so. In any case, the use of an intercontinental missile of the Yars complex for this purpose is absolutely redundant - the Iskander will suffice. Consolation, of course, is weak, but what is it...

The plot, as already mentioned, is exclusively about the combat deployment of strategic missile systems. Which in itself, of course, is not so scary, although it gives reason to think. In particular, to think about whether such a development of events is possible in which Russian missile systems will be deployed on the territory of neighboring states?

As common sense tells us, modern Ukraine under no circumstances will allow Russia to deploy on its territory any complexes of strike weapons, especially nuclear ones. That is, this scenario assumes the annexation of Ukraine. And nothing else ...

If we consider that "training position 325" is located in the depths of Ukraine, about five hundred kilometers from the Russian border, and even on the right bank of the Dnieper, it becomes obvious that this is not a small border area that can be annexed within the framework of some a slight aggravation of relations with Ukraine, but about a full-scale military operation, during which the territory of this country will be completely absorbed, without a trace. The situation is aggravated by the fact that no one will ever send strategic missile systems directly to the front line. They are deployed in such a way as to, in principle, exclude the possibility of being hit by tactical weapons, including as a result of an attack by tactical aviation, strike drones, operational-tactical missiles, and even more so, multiple launch rocket systems. That is, we will venture to assert that in this case there should be no less than three hundred kilometers to the front line. And this is the border with Poland, or even the capture of some of its pieces.

The need to cross the Dnieper should be mentioned separately. This in itself is not easy, especially in the age of precision weapons. And in this case, it is necessary to preserve the bridges across this rather large river, because the crossing of mobile ground complexes of intercontinental strategic missiles, weighing hundreds of tons each, along pontoon crossings, looks, to put it mildly, not a very good idea. And this presupposes not only a powerful, but also a very rapid offensive operation, with the landing of assault forces in the operational depth of the enemy, the capture of bridges and their holding until the main forces approach.

Frankly, most analysts have big doubts that it makes sense for Russia to annex Ukraine completely. Even among the most pro-government agitators, it has become a commonplace that Western Ukraine is a “cut off slice,” the benefits from it in case of joining Russia will be much less than harm, and Moscow will get nothing but a headache from such an annexation. And suddenly such a turn ... Has the manual changed?

Let's not jump to conclusions. Western Ukraine really, whatever one may say, is unlikely to be a valuable acquisition for Russia. Rather, on the contrary, it will bring with it turmoil, protests, guerrilla warfare, and the costs of its assimilation will be higher than any possible benefits. Which, these very benefits, are still under a very big question ...

But such a scenario is still possible if we assume that Russia is being drawn into a direct armed confrontation with the West. That is, the war from “cold” and informational will suddenly turn into “hot”, real. In this case, Moscow would have a direct reason to push the front line as far as possible and bring its armies closer to NATO countries. In this case, indeed, the relatively small costs associated with keeping (perhaps temporarily) Western Ukraine will turn out to be quite acceptable against the background of serious military and geopolitical benefits.

Well, the worst scenario of a possible confrontation with the United States and its allies is a limited nuclear exchange. The likelihood of such a development of events is quite small, but it should not be completely discounted. In this case, it will be a direct reason for Moscow to place part of its nuclear potential, planned to participate in the exchange, in territories that are not part of Russia and are not planned to be included in it. That is, if the enemy already tries to attack Russian strategic ICBMs, then let them stay away from the territories that should eventually become part of the Russian Federation.

This option, by the way, is no longer very comforting for the residents of Starokonstantinov. Only in this case they need to fear not a Russian, but an American strike...

In general, the idea of waging a war, if it is inevitable, away from one's own territory, is absolutely logical. The pioneers in this, of course, are the Americans. And their persistence in defending and expanding the NATO bloc, when the USSR collapsed and the threat emanating from it disappeared long ago, is quite eloquent evidence of this. Alas, war is a very cynical thing. And Washington and Moscow can be understood if they choose to measure their strength somewhere in Eastern Europe. Although we are all, of course, for peace and prosperity...

But let's not rush to wrap ourselves in a sheet and crawl towards the cemetery. The fact is that leaks, such as the one we are discussing today, are usually organized precisely with the aim of scaring the enemy and preventing events from developing according to the most terrible scenario. Of course, there is some possibility that there was a real leak of information, and the Kremlin is indeed hatching plans to annex all of Ukraine, but still this is very unlikely.

It is much more reasonable to assume that we are dealing with a deliberate injection of an "information bomb", the purpose of which was to demonstrate that the Kremlin is determined to go all the way and is even making some plans of offensive actions. Moreover, this does not even require a very wide resonance - the secret services of the "partners", tracking such stories in the media, must have paid attention to this information and properly analyzed it.

If we are wrong, and the Strategic Missile Forces are really preparing to deploy their regiments in the right-bank Ukraine, then everything is pretty sad. Alas, such scenarios are fraught with the fact that the situation can easily get out of control and the conflict will gain such momentum that world civilization will be thrown back into the Middle Ages. And this is at its best...