Posted 8 февраля 2021,, 17:21
Published 8 февраля 2021,, 17:21
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
In his publication, network analyst Dmitry Shulgin dispelled the illusions of the Russian opposition that Joe Biden would now do his best to help them overthrow the authoritarian regime:
“In January, the 'Russian opposition' got rosy illusions connected, on the one hand, with the demonstrations in many cities of the country in connection with the arrest of Navalny, and on the other hand, fueled by the coming to power in the United States of Joe Biden.
As for internal illusions, there is not even the strength to discuss them. But the illusions associated with the Biden administration seem more reasonable, so they should be taken seriously. So let's start in order:
First, let's not forget that Biden swore allegiance to the United States, not to the "beautiful, free Russia of the future". This means that Biden is not faced with the task of bringing about a democratic revolution in Russia. It solves a completely different problem - bringing the United States out of the crisis (economic, political, even moral, if you like). And sanctions against Russia are being adopted not with the aim of making another "color revolution", but solely in order to prevent Putin from harming the United States and its allies.
Secondly, after looking closely at the program documents of the same Biden or Blinken (to be honest, anyone, since there is bipartisan unanimity on this issue in the United States), you will see that the first issue that poses a real (substantial) threat to the United States is not Russia, but China. And this is very correct - well, if only for the simple reason that it is China that possesses resources comparable (in some positions) with the American ones. Russia, with all due respect to "cotton wool", is not nearly comparable to China in terms of economic and defense power (we will not discuss the number of nuclear warheads here, since Putin is clearly in no hurry to go to heaven). America understands this very well, so Putin occupies an honorable, but still second, place on the list of "US enemies".
Thirdly, strictly speaking, Biden does not need to adopt any new sanctions against Russia at all. The US Congress has adopted enough documents on sanctions, which already today provide, if not defeat, then complete suppression of Russia. The question is that Trump diligently sabotaged the actual implementation of all these documents, and Biden, even if even half of them enters into force, he will not need new sanctions. You just scroll through the list of sanctions and carefully read the text of the bills - all the tools necessary to suppress Putin's activity are spelled out there.
Fourthly, as I said above, Biden is solving the problem of bringing the United States out of the crisis, and he certainly will not follow the Russian tactics "to spite the enemies, to the delight of my mother, I will shoot myself in the leg." Biden in the current situation will not impose those sanctions that can cause at least some harm to the American economy - not the right disposition.
I will explain this with a specific example. There is such a company "Corporation VSMPO-Avisma" - it is the world's largest titanium producer, exports products to 48 countries of the world, including the USA. VSMPO-Avisma came under US sanctions along with hundreds of other Russian and Chinese companies on December 21, 2020. However, already on January 15, the US Department of Commerce published a document in which it announced the exclusion of VSMPO-Avisma from the list of “military end users”. The text of the document states that "The End User Review Committee has decided that [the corporation] is not a military end user." Thus, the US Department of Commerce revised its decision to include VSMPO-Avisma.
Why was this done? Because otherwise, titanium prices would rise, and the cost of American and European aircraft (including the already expensive stealth F-35) would become prohibitive. It is known that a giant mineral deposit was recently discovered in Norway, which should make the EU independent from the supply of rare minerals from China and Russia. The newly formed Norge Mining will mine titanium, vanadium and phosphates. At the same time, Norge Mining is not yet ready to talk about the size and exact timing of future deliveries - work is still underway to prepare for production. And the start of production, according to Norge Mining's own estimates, should begin no earlier than in five years. But within these five years, the aircraft industry of the United States and Europe will need titanium - they cannot wait, so the Americans removed VSMPO-Avisma from sanctions, and Biden did not act out this situation back.
Today there is only one state in the world that can give a damn about all economic indicators - China. The United States and its allies operate in a system of market economic relations, where production efficiency matters, so they will not ruin their aviation industry with one single goal - to close the VSMPO-Avisma plant in Putin's Russia. And this is just one example that lies on the surface. I think there are others, no less indicative. Therefore, when you ask why Biden does not introduce his “Doomsday sanctions for Russia,” the answer is obvious: the United States wants to harm Russia with the help of the sanctions policy, and not itself and not its allies. The Russian rule "they cut wood - chips fly" for Washington will not be a guide to action.
I am telling all this not in order to criticize Biden, the US and European authorities for their compromises with Putin, but with the aim of reducing the degree of “victoriousness” among my readers. Yes, Biden will do everything in his power to weaken Putin, to put Russia in his place, but he will not sacrifice American interests.
Ultimately, interested states provide real assistance to protesters only when they see a real protest potential that can actually overthrow despotism. Agree that so far, neither Belarus nor Russia has seen sufficient protest forces that could shake the regimes. In this situation, we cannot demand from the West to make a revolution for us. But we ourselves are still very far from the revolution. To cool off your ardor and return to earth, just go to some “patriotic” resource, or even easier - go to the first passenger you see in the metro (or to the taxi driver on the street) and ask him head-on: “Are you against Putin?". I think his reaction will sober you up a little..."