Despite the rise in anti-authoritarian sentiments, Russian society is still roughly split in half between those who have a predominant demand for pro-Western values and those who want a “strong hand”. And this, according to experts, means that radical changes in Russian society are unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future.
For example, political scientist Igor Mintusov believes that Russian citizens tend to call a state strong not on the basis of their well-being, economic power, technological development, but only on the basis of the presence of a strong leader and the might of the national army and security forces.
This pattern has developed historically and was associated with the post-revolutionary stabilization of the early 20th century, where a strong ruler and a strong army became the basis of this process. And then the "post-perestroika" processes that our states faced after the collapse of the USSR, the so-called dashing 90s, when an excess of "freedom" swept over society, contributed to the fact that state structures and institutions were in a state of turbulence. And the general welfare of the population was completely undermined. And then, with the help of a "strong hand", it was the current team that was able to lead the country out of the most difficult crisis, but times have changed. Therefore, those stereotyped theses that were discussed on TV are another reminder to the population of the old merits of 20 years ago, when there was an acute demand for powerful law enforcement agencies that could overcome the rampant crime.
On TV, there was a purposeful actualization of past events instead of the obvious problematic agenda of today. In the federal information field, the domestic political block offers all the same meanings, theses and methods that were relevant 20 years ago.
But in the country, according to Mintusov, a new demand has matured - people demand changes, an increase in living standards, and the development of civil society institutions. This means that you need to transform, or rather evolve meanings. Of course, in our society the theses of a “strong leader and a national army” are still relevant today for the majority of the population. But they do not cover the problems of personal and general well-being, the development of elements of civil society.
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Meanwhile, analysts continue to explore the “strong hand” phenomenon in Russian society. For example, sociologist Artyom Zemtsov from the Laboratory for Comparative Research of Mass Consciousness of the Expert Institute of the Higher School of Economics, in the course of focus groups (in-depth interviews), collected such opinions of the “deep people” (Sociological Journal, No. 4, 2020). Focus groups were held in April 2017 in the Kaluga and Saratov regions - both in their regional and district centers, as well as in villages. The main results of this research are reported by the blog "Interpreter":
To begin with, this work contains a reminder of what the need for a “strong hand” in Russia is based on: “The demand for this orientation is partly related to the remnants of a patriarchal peasant culture. Many respondents believe that the political structure of Russia resembles the structure of a peasant family, at the head of which must always be the owner, the "strong hand." Personalism in politics and the concentration of power in the same hands are perceived by them as a desired good, a "natural order", a guarantee of social stability. "
Further on the main authoritarian arguments of ordinary people:
- According to the respondents, a “strong hand” is associated with a single, centralized political power. In their minds, any separation of powers, delegation of powers is perceived as a weakness of the “strong hand” regime, which can lead to social destabilization.
- “Strong hand” is associated with “order” (this is the word used by the respondents). Political freedoms are understood by the respondents as a privileged, limited resource that is redistributed “from above” by the state, otherwise it is “arbitrariness”. The state of "order" also implies the non-legal nature of political decisions, "excesses on the ground", but if it provides a feeling of "a strong state", "pride in the country", then it is perceived as acceptable.
- The “strong hand”, as the respondents believe, is cruel, but its cruelty is justified, it is aimed at the benefit of the overwhelming majority and the preservation of order, against those who want to undermine it. Its acceptability is also articulated through the physical level - "shoot", "imprison", "chop off fingers", "put against the wall." They see it as a tool against "thieving officials".
- The style of government of the “strong hand” (for Russia) is understood by the respondents as natural, self-evident, “primordially Russian”. In the political sphere, the overwhelming number of respondents consider themselves "cogs", "earthy people", "gudgeons", "nobody". This is a certain given, like natural phenomena - they cannot be influenced, you can only adapt to them.
- The “strong hand” is the main instrument in the struggle against the bureaucracy, political elites (“stolen officials”) who pursue only their own interests and try to distort the will of the people, the political leader, thereby undermining the political order. A “strong hand” is an arbiter, a mediator who helps to harmonize the interests of different elite groups, while protecting, first of all, ordinary people. The sole leader is in confrontation with the elites, as they constantly “mislead him” (“deceived”, “hidden”, “stolen”). In this confrontation, he does not always win, manages to protect the interests of those in need ("physically does not have time to reach all corners"), but this does not mean that such a system must be abandoned, creating a more effective model of delegation of power
- According to the respondents, the “strong hand” regime, despite its stability, is in a permanent state of an impending crisis, which the same “strong hand” can overcome. She is a conductor of the will of the people, they are inextricably linked, and officials, elites are only links that interfere with direct communication. A "strong hand" is "ours", "ours", "close", but at the same time "distant", "uncontrollable" external force.