Under wraps: the Russian authorities are preparing another pension reform?

“The Ministry of Finance, classified as“ secret, ”is preparing a draft law on a new funded pension system. Earlier, they also secretly introduced a garbage reform, contributions for overhaul and raising the retirement age, which undermined the confidence of citizens. I'm waiting for clarification from the head of department, Mr. Siluanov...",- Telegram feeds quoted the words of Fair Russia party Sergey Mironov.

Journalist Olga Tropkina is concerned:

“Siluanov presented amendments to the pension legislation, but classified as secret. I don’t remember this anymore, they began to classify social laws. This is quite somehow..."

The media and social networks agree that the Russian government is already preparing to cancel the pension reform in 2018, working on options for returning the previous retirement age and returning indexation to working pensioners. Most likely, the "new" social reform will be announced by the president during his message to the Federal Assembly on the eve of the elections to the State Duma.

This is confirmed by the popular Nezygar channel, explaining the reasons for such intentions:

“The Kremlin is ready to go for one more pension reform before the elections. Sociological studies show that the turning point in attitudes towards power came in 2018. All over the country, the population perceived the pension reform as unfair. For the sake of preserving the constitutional majority, on the eve of the parliamentary elections, the possibility of carrying out "correction of mistakes" is being considered.

The government and the Ministry of Labor have worked out options for returning the previous retirement age to northerners and residents of the Far Eastern territories, as well as returning indexation to working pensioners.

The next reform is designed to calm the regions with high protest potential and can be announced by the president during the message to the Federal Assembly, which was postponed until spring..."

Channel "Kremlyovsky Bezbashennik" writes about this:

“The topic of a new pension reform is gaining momentum, designed to stop the decline in government confidence ratings. As part of the reform, the previous retirement age and indexation for working pensioners may return, and the main goal will be to reduce the "negative" in the most protest and affected regions. Presumably, the focus will be on the North and the Far East, while there is no mention of the most affected Caucasus, which is why the new pension reform from the start acquires the status of speculative and limited.

The motive for the new reform is that pensioners are steadily becoming poorer, which hits Putin's most loyal electorate and the president's rating personally. The resource of election fraud has ended, so the Vertical will use mitigation as a method to achieve its goals.

The new pension reform from the start has a negative connotation: the fact that this topic is placed at the center of the agenda will put the System in a defensive position, which is not particularly usual, and before the elections is generally suicidal.

The reform project is kept secret and it is possible that it was done deliberately, and the announcement of the specifics is guaranteed to hit the rating of United Russia. The fact that work on the project is going on indirectly confirms the dismissal of the head of the Pension Fund of Russia Topilin and the attempts of Prime Minister Mishustin to remove the Minister of Finance Siluanov. It is possible that the secrecy of the reform is an attack on Siluanov by Mishustin due to the fact that the entire systemic opposition is preparing to publicly oppose the reform.

For comfortable maneuvering, Prime Minister Mishustin needs access to off-budget funds, which is exactly why the FSS and the Pension Fund are planning to merge, as well as the public reaction to an increase in the tax burden on citizens, together with the draft "People's Budget" of "United Russia". To fully turn around, Mishustin will first have to spend money on pensioners, raising his rating as prime minister and first person on the United Russia list, and then remove Siluanov and then carry out tax reform.

The new taxes will actually act as a method of replenishing the treasury for the start-up spending of the pension reform, which is already being presented as a demonstration of the authorities' “flexibility”. The very discussion around the pension reform may repeat the fate of increasing the tax burden, which hit the Kremlin after the launch and continues to develop spontaneously..."