Armenian deadlock: Prime Minister Pashinyan is bad, but his opponents are even worse

The internal political crisis in Armenia, caused by the defeat in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh, does not stop, becoming more complicated every day.

It is known that the General Staff demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, but the Defense Ministry did not agree with this. Moreover, the prime minister dismissed the chief of the General Staff, but Armenian President Armen Sargsyan did not approve this decision.

Political scientist Sergey Markedonov analyzes the situation:

“There is a collision between the two most important institutions of power, to which the third, the Constitutional Court, may soon join.

Nikol Pashinyan is trying to win the fight not only in offices, but also on the street. He lost the street initiative back in November 2020, when part of the Armenian society, stunned by the news of a joint statement on Karabakh, began to demand the resignation of the head of the Cabinet. But since late February 2021, Pashinyan appears to have been trying to counterattack.

He is trying to re-use his old technologies - direct dialogue with citizens over government institutions, and on March 1 announced a referendum to amend the Constitution in October 2021.

According to Pashinyan, "the transition to a semi-presidential form of government is a possible scenario." By the way, the prime minister did not rule out such a turn before. Back in December 2018, he spoke about the fact that many provisions of the current Constitution of Armenia are problematic and, on occasion, a return to the presidential model is possible. Let me remind you that the current version of the Basic Law was conceived by Serzh Sargsyan in many respects to prolong his power in the chair of the head of the Cabinet.

But since this scheme failed, a model appeared that was not well suited to the internal situation in Armenia. And Pashinyan, it is possible, would like to get rid of the cumbersome conciliation procedures in one fell swoop, replacing him with one-man management. But is it possible today, in 2021 after the defeat in Karabakh, the loss of the prime minister's former popularity and existing social divisions? After all, from the idea of a referendum to practice is a long and expensive one. And the opposition is unlikely to want to go to a nationwide vote on this issue under the dictation of Pashinyan. Meanwhile, while the presidential model is just beginning to be discussed, the incumbent President Armen Sarkissian, with a reduced amount of constitutional powers, is trying to play his game and raise his previously symbolic status of the "keeper" of the Basic Law, turning him into the central figure of a mediator between all the forces involved in the internal struggle...."

Experts of the pro-government Russian channel Kremlin Washerwoman also highly appreciate the role of President Sargsyan in this crisis and are confident that the opposition will go to the end in its struggle with Prime Minister Pashinyan:

“Firstly, Prime Minister Pashinyan is ready to sacrifice the Armenian statehood and the future of the people in order to retain the imaginary power. If successful, Armenia will continue to lumpen, a small stratum of the middle class and intellectuals will leave the country, there will be a total degradation of power institutions, which will open a direct path to the title of a failed state, following the example of Somalia.

Second, opposition groups are too explicitly focused on using the situation to take over power. Like Pashinyan, they are ready to go to the end, even if they have to fight to the death. Both sides claim that there is no third way.

This crisis has shown that this path has always been in the person of President Armen Sarkissian. He is the supra-partisan head of state and the guarantor of the Constitution, which makes it possible to make independent decisions based solely on national interests. If Pashinyan and the opposition really thought about the welfare of the state, they would have turned to Sargsyan with a request to take a balanced constructive solution to overcome the crisis. Instead, Pashinyan is openly blackmailing the president, and the opposition sees him as just a tool to achieve its narrow goals.

The way Sargsyan withstands this pressure with dignity, does not bend under anyone and does his duty cannot but inspire respect. Any country would be happy to have such a person as its leader..."

Journalist Kirill Krivosheyev, for his part, believes that Pashinyan still retains the support of the Armenians, and this is confirmed by opinion polls, which show that, despite the difficult atmosphere, there is no total hatred of the current government in Armenian society. As bad as Pashinyan is, his opponents look even weaker in the eyes of Armenian voters. One of the main reasons for this is that they are not ready to offer society a fundamentally different course.

Even if the opposition is able to achieve Pashinyan's resignation, it still will not be able to change something in the outcome of the second Karabakh war. And not only because of geopolitical circumstances, but also because the Armenian society no longer wants to fight. Back in November last year, rallies began near the military registration and enlistment offices demanding that they no longer send conscripts to Karabakh - and they quietly satisfied him.

Now, according to polls, only 31% of the inhabitants of Armenia are in favor of trying to reclaim the territories lost in the war. Another third (28%) agree to "stabilize the situation within the existing borders". Another 3% are even ready to give up even Stepanakert, just to end the conflict.

Hence the opposition's indifference to the proposal to hold early elections. Immediately after the defeat, they seemed to be something inevitable and self-evident. But opposition politicians were not enthusiastic about the idea. After all, even if the team of Kocharyan and Manukyan replaces Pashinyan in power, they will still be forced to do the same as he did.

And this is a very unpleasant job: to draw a new border with Azerbaijan through the villages, which six months ago were 70 km from the Azerbaijani positions; coordinate transport routes to Nakhichevan and Turkey through Armenia; make compromises on the remnants of Karabakh in order to preserve at least something Armenian there.

In times like these, it is much more profitable to be an oppositionist than to ruin your rating in government offices forever. Therefore, it is more convenient for the opposition for Pashinyan to finish his not at all honorable work and retire, like a Moor from an idiom.

This hopelessness is probably felt by ordinary people, and therefore the rallies, which are presented as a decisive moment in the history of Armenia, attract relatively few participants. To bring people to the square, they must have an idea of a wonderful future in their heads: where there is no corruption, the authorities listen to the people, and the enemies are defeated.

Pashinyan himself promised such "Armenia of the Future" in 2018, but did not live up to expectations. It is impossible to believe that the "former" who were thrown off two years ago will be able to build paradise. “Yes, they stole, but at least they didn’t sell their homeland and they won’t sell it,” is the only possible argument in their favor. But you don't want to go out for such people - especially in winter..."