From a hybrid war to a cold one: the European Union will reconsider its relations with Russia

As you know, Vladimir Putin and President of the European Council Charles Michel discussed the possibilities of using the Russian Sputnik V vaccine against coronavirus during a telephone conversation. However, according to information from foreign sources, they talked not only about the vaccine, but also about other, no less important subjects.

As journalist Kirill Shulika writes on his channel:

“The topic of Alexey Navalny was also discussed, but it is clear that the Kremlin did not tell about it.

And here is what the European Council reports: “From the point of view of the EU, the direction of relations with Russia can only change if there is steady progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements, stopping hybrid attacks and cyber attacks on EU members and respecting human rights". In addition, during the conversation, Michel “repeated the call for the Russian authorities to release Navalny and conduct a transparent investigation into the attempt on him.

From now on, every conversation with the heads of state of Europe, with American and European officials, will come down to Putin to the topic of Navalny. Not according to his intention, of course..."

Political scientist Alexander Morozov comments on the situation:

“If I understand correctly, we are at a fork. March 25-26 - the summit of the heads of the EU states to "revise" relations with Russia. The "revision" has already been announced. That is, ready. The fact that Charles Michel called Putin on the eve of the summit is, so to speak, an obligatory gesture. There was nothing new in this conversation.

Thus, "revision". What does this mean in practice in the next 5-7 years? The European Union will join Biden with regard to Russia. And he has already announced a new position in relation to Russia. There will be a restoration and "creative development" of Atlantic solidarity on the basis of a common struggle to end the hybrid war on the part of the Kremlin.

As one clever friend of mine put it today in a letter to me: "This is a transition from a hybrid war to a cold one. The hybrid has already gotten everyone out". Indeed, it is possible to oust "hybrid war" from the world agenda only by transferring "war" to a different register.

What are the contours of this next - "post-hybrid" confrontation? If we take a look at the "theater of action", then all the options are on the surface.

1. Europe will join the US in sanctions regimes;
2. Europe will act in a consolidated manner with the United States, increasing sanctions at a new pace;
3. The "revision" inevitably leads to a revision of NATO's strategy on the eastern flank of the alliance;
4. For the European Union, Russia will be on the list of threats higher than Iran and China, there will be an expansion of security structures working in the Russian direction;
5. The "Three Seas Initiative", which was formed as an economic alliance, will form a "border protection" organization;
6. Autarky (a system of closed reproduction of a community, with a minimum dependence on exchange with the external environment; the country's economic self-sufficiency regime, in which the external trade turnover is minimized, - editor's note) Of Russia will double;
7. Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova will find themselves in a risky position, but the door to the alliance of the "countries of the protective shaft" will be open for them.

Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko spoke in the State Duma, RIA reports that he admitted that there is a conflict with the European Union, and a failure in relations..."