Sooner or later, China will turn into Kafka's "Castle": why the West will not lose to the East

Experts are discussing the main international event of these days - a new aggravation of relations between China and the West.For example, the famous political scientist Lilia Shevtsova writes in her blog:

“China is challenging the West. The New York Times claims the world is splitting into two hostile camps, led by the US and China.

Indeed, the contours of a new global order are looming. Not necessarily what the NY Times writes about. (...) America, even under Trump, set the task of stopping China. Europe has so far tried to avoid participating in their confrontation. The Europeans have found the perfect balance: the Americans provide them with an “umbrella of security”, and the Chinese provide them with economic benefits.

(...)

China's current aggressiveness is confusing. Is China ready to claim the role of the anti-Western pole? But what does Beijing have to offer the world? Where are those countries that are ready to run under the Chinese "wing"? But most importantly, Beijing's transition to the role of an antagonist to the West will close its Western source of vitality.

One gets the impression that Beijing made a mistake in assessing the situation, deciding that the United States is over, and the Europeans are addicted to the Chinese economic needle. Therefore, the West can dictate its own terms and force it to abandon moralizing. It may seem that the West has fallen into the Chinese net. For German carmakers (VW, Daimler and BMW), China is the main sales market. China is America's largest lender, holding $ 1.1 trillion in US bonds. China is a key source of imports for 49 economies around the world.

Overconfidence, however, let the Chinese down. Beijing today is doing what Moscow did before it - by its belligerence it is consolidating Europe and the United States. But only yesterday, playing on economic interests, China eroded Western unity.

It seems that sooner or later the passions will subside. Why does China need the collapse of the Western world or its transformation into a "war chariot" if there is an opportunity to adapt it to its own needs?

But the confrontation will not pass without a trace. The West began to look for a way to oust China from its neurological realms. Thus, German business urged the EU to "resist the expansion of Chinese state capitalism." The German government is tightening the rules for the sale of strategic technologies to China. Europe is ready to abandon China's participation in the development of 5G mobile networks. Biden and British Prime Minister Johnson ponder how to undermine China's Belt and Road strategy for global influence..."

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For his part, American analyst Alexey Krol expressed theses characterizing the confrontation between China and the West:

1. China's growth is driven solely by the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jiping. This is China's greatest advantage and its greatest risk, for a strong leader clears the clearing, and at best leaves behind inertia and bureaucrats.

Deng provided US partnership and reform, while Xi provided the vision and mythology of a new China.

2. The disorganization and sluggish reaction of the West is due solely to the absence of strong leaders, and this is not surprising.

Strong leaders come from hard times, big challenges. In a successful situation, leaders do not arise. An enabling environment promotes degradation. It is no coincidence that 50% of startups in Silicon Valley are made by expatriates.

3. China is a challenge for the West, so there is a chance that this challenge will nominate a leader in the West. First, the new leader will have to root out the old opposition, otherwise he will not get a maneuver of action - as Lee Kuan Yew said - "We need to put a couple of friends in." Trump's case is instructive. He will shake up the aging elite. People understand that the jokes are over - they must again look for gunpowder in the flasks.

4. Resources in Western civilization are orders of magnitude greater than those of China, but they are fragmented, so China will do everything to drive a wedge further. This is the usual diplomacy, the old trick.

5. China strives to ensure superiority mainly in developing countries. The USSR has already done all this, and was present in more than 40 countries - it created industry there, supported it with a military contingent. Do you want to know how it ended? Go to the Museum of Internationalist Warriors in Kiev, the eyes will open quickly.

For example, the USSR was Afghanistan's largest creditor, invested more than 10 times more than the United States. How did it end?

6. Everyone threw the USSR. Everything. China thinks that if it buys the elites, invests in the country, builds infrastructure, it will be able to control and influence? It's naive.

All this has already happened, and the bones of the expeditionary corps of the British Empire in different countries still lie. When a country wants to get out of control, it leaves, and nothing bothers it.

Britain owned India for almost 250 years, so what? Gandhi appeared, and within 5-6 years India became independent. There were colonial periods in Britain, France, Portugal, Spain, and where are these colonies? Did the metropolises have no resources? At a certain historical stage, it is beneficial for people to accept gifts, and then it is beneficial to send sponsors to the ass. Not from a big mind often, by the way.

Another example is Germany, Europe and Japan, which were rebuilt from the ruins thanks to the United States.

And China got out of poverty thanks to the United States by relocating production.

7. Still India is just waking up. Africa and many Asian countries have not yet woken up. The Islamic world has not really woken up yet.

8. There is a chance that Europe will wake up again. When it smells fried, everyone wakes up.

9. There is one more thing. This is a great promise.

For example, America gives the whole world a great promise - the American dream - "Work hard and reach heights regardless of race, origin, availability of money." And America is keeping its promise. I emphasize - to the whole world.

Question. What promise does China make to the whole world? For example, in China, a foreigner cannot obtain citizenship - never. China for whom is its empire worth? For the people of the planet or specifically for the Chinese?

10. China is entering the European markets, and this causes discontent at the level of business and government. It is clear that the municipalities want to get the infrastructure cheaper, but more often the regional officials have chicken brains in this sense, and they see nothing further than the local elections. Giving large contracts to China means getting a short-term cost reduction, and the death of local industry in the medium term.

Beware of the Danes who bring gifts. It is understandable why the developing poor countries accept China, but if the developed countries accept it, it means either stupidity or 100% corruption.

11. On the one hand, I have some sympathy for China, they do a lot in a very pragmatic way.

However, I have no sympathy for the society they are building.

Discipline is ultimately the mother of neurosis, and the abundance of rigid rules gives rise to more moral monsters than freedom, and any China sooner or later turns into Kafka.

12. I admit that until 2030 it will be more or less clear, however, uncertainty will increase, not decrease. The more conflicts, the more opportunities..."