Nobody wants to give in: the situation in Donbass threatens with war

Journalist Vladimir Solovyov writes on the website of the Carnegie Moscow Center about where the next aggravation of relations between Russia and Ukraine may lead. It is no secret that in connection with the transfer of Russian troops to Donbass, they are being watched in all the main capitals of the world. Moreover, the hopes that were pinned on the fact that President Zelenskiy would be able to reset the conflict when he came to power have already been forgotten, although much has been done in this direction, including the agreement between Zelenskiy and Putin at the Paris summit of the Normandy Four (Germany , Russia, Ukraine, France) on December 9, 2019 on how to achieve the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Now the countries are practically on the brink of war.

Back in 2020, the parties actively argued about the responsibility of the parties to the conflict for compliance with measures leading to silence on the line of contact of troops in Donbass. Ukraine then insisted that Moscow would not control the armed forces on foreign territory, neither the Ukrainian, nor the DPR and LPR. Moscow insisted that Kiev itself should seek a common language with the republics of Donbass, but not with Russia. As a result, it turned out that each side has its own war: Russia considers this conflict to be an internal Ukrainian one, and positions itself as a mediator, while Ukraine is sure that this is a war with Russia.

Ukraine believes that the DPR and LPR were created precisely by Russia, and therefore it is the source of the military power of these republics, and Moscow tirelessly repeats that it is not a party to the conflict, and even the Minsk agreements say nothing about this. That is why Ukraine is not satisfied with the Minsk Agreements or the “Package of Measures”, but Russia treats them as inviolable. So it turns out that any peaceful steps are drowned in this uncertainty, which the parties interpret each in their own favor.

The expert explains the position of Ukraine, among other things, by the internal political situation in this country. The main players in it have always been conditionally divided into pro-Russian and pro-Western. Seven years ago, the first and second began to be marked with tougher markers - "zrada" (treason, an act of perfidy - editors' note) and "peremoga" (victory - editors' note). The first are those who are suspected of surrendering Russia's national interests. This highly elastic label is easy to fall under because of a careless word, action, or even just a willingness to compromise. Fighters against Russian influence and aggression operate under the banner of "peremogi". They are determined and radical towards the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass, and President Zelenskiy is seen as supporters of "zrada", and the Ukrainian government has repeatedly succumbed to their onslaught, including during negotiations last year, when nationalists criticized Zelenskiy for the July armistice agreements. calling them a concession to Moscow. They were outraged that the document places responsibility for the implementation of the agreed steps on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the one hand, and the armed forces of ORDLO, on the other.

They are also unhappy with another circumstance: the agreement that permission from above is required for return fire on the line of contact. Former President of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk said in February this year: “I would act in a mirror-like manner: to answer every shot with a shot. And there is no need to wait, invent whether it is a provocation or not a provocation. A shot is a shot. If they shoot, the answer is the same. And there is no need to wait for someone to be killed or wounded".

So it turns out that the main negotiator of Ukraine on the Donbas settlement, Yermak, agrees the conditions, and the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG Kravchuk disavows them. At the same time, Kiev officially does not withdraw from the agreements. And if an armistice agreement is interpreted freely, it ceases to be an agreement.

Now there are no negotiations, either in the TCG or in the "Normandy format", the situation remains uncertain. Moreover, Kiev blames Moscow for the non-fulfillment of the Minsk agreements, and that - Kiev, and no one proposed a new version of the agreements.

Moreover, unofficially Ukraine admits that trying to fulfill the Minsk agreements is not only useless, but even harmful, and that it signed them not for execution, but in order to avoid military defeat.

The expert explains why it is unprofitable for Zelenskiy to fulfill the Minsk agreements: a special status for the republics of Donbass leads to the emergence of an independent center of power in the country, with its own powers, which can build relations with Russia on its own. And then other regions will want the same for themselves. And the weak Ukrainian government is unable to resist the pressure of the nationalists, who see any compromise on Minsk as a betrayal.

So Kiev has a new installation, since it is impossible to come to an agreement with Russia, then it is necessary to prepare for war, strengthen the army, and then return both Donbass and Crimea. And Russia is greatly annoyed by such a change in Zelenskiy.

“The resumption of full-fledged negotiations and at least some flexibility of the parties could well ease the growing tension. But Ukraine does not agree to this for internal political reasons, and Russia firmly stands on the inviolability of the Minsk agreements, not moving a millimeter and not wanting to compromise the diplomatic victory achieved once, moreover, backed up by a UN Security Council resolution. The result is an escalation, in which everyone sees their own war...”, - sums up the expert.