Following Iran's footsteps: how Russia will respond to US sanctions

The sanctions against Russia announced Thursday by US President Biden did not scare Russian analysts too much.

For example, Anastasia Likhacheva, director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, considers them quite sparing for the Russian economy:

“The sanctions are not only symbolic (expulsion of diplomats), but also restrict the activities of companies. This is especially true for those companies that are well represented in the IT security market, because this means that not only those companies that were their clients may face problems, but also the clients of their clients. If we talk about companies for which the priority is to work in the Russian market and which seek to build relationships, for example, with Chinese, Iranian partners, this is a symbolic gesture - it complicates life, settlements in dollars, but is not a very big problem.

On the whole, the adopted package cannot be considered those Doomsday sanctions or the "hellish" package, from Hell, about which they talked so much. It's another matter that the timing of these sanctions - after the invitation to the summit - underscores the impossibility of some kind of solution to the Russian-American issue in the foreseeable future without radical steps from one side or another, and neither Washington nor Moscow is ready for anything. . "

For his part, political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov believes that the new package of sanctions further increases the "toxicity" of the Russian economy at the global level, so that the situation in the economy is becoming similar to that under which Iran fell - all domestic companies are now dangerous partners:

“I believe that this package is designed to increase internal pressure and exacerbate the conflict between the “moderate” and “maximalists”.

The Iranization of the Russian economy can lead to the acceleration of its nationalization. The closure of all foreign markets, coupled with political pressure, should reorient our production to the domestic market, which implies a new round of Stalinist-style mobilization.

However, Iranian sanctions are still a long way off. Let me remind you that in November 2018, Iran was disconnected from the international interbank SWIFT system, and then Trump introduced a new package of sanctions that affected the construction sector and energy. In this sense, Russia is easier, since around the country there are many "wormholes", the so-called gray zones, like the unrecognized republics and such buffer zones as Belarus. In addition, there are China and the Asia-Pacific countries nearby, which may well help build some chains bypassing American sanctions. The same Iran has managed to build parallel relations with Germany and Britain, so that savvy Russian oligarchs, if necessary, will be able to find loopholes..."

Economist Yakov Mirkin, in his assessment of Russia's alleged response, was extremely specific:

“What anti-sanctions can be, if any? The official policy is de-dollarization. Russia's investments in US government debt (treasury securities) are estimated to be less than $ 10 billion.The last time Russia was among its major holders was in December 2018 ($ 13.2 billion, US Treasury). These attachments can be removed as an "anti-sanction". This will not bring any harm to the United States, the total amount of the US national debt financed by foreigners is more than 7 trillion. dollars, incl. Japan and China - each country is more than $ 1 trillion. The pinnacle of Russia's love for the US public debt is October 2012. The amount of Russian investments (primarily international reserves) is $ 171 billion (3% of the US government debt in Treasury securities). Since then - only withdrawals..."

However, at the same time, Mirkin warned his readers that there is a danger of ousting the cash dollar from Russia, and the holders of dollar accounts in Russian banks need to keep their ears open so as not to find themselves in an unpleasant situation:

“Can the authorities make a decision to oust the cash dollar from Russia? Or currency accounts in dollars? Or currency accounts in dollars? Yes, in principle, they can, as a response to sanctions against the Russian national debt. We hope that this will not happen, because the US ban on Russian government debt is partial (you cannot buy it on the primary market, that is, at auctions during placement, but there is no ban on buying on the secondary market - on the Moscow Exchange). Those. a step towards suffocation, but not yet complete suffocation.

(...)

It happens that when the ship sinks, in order to save the native finances, you have to introduce currency restrictions.

Ukraine, Belarus, Cyprus, Greece and a hundred other countries. It was all there.

Only in a desperate situation. As a response to the crisis.

As an "anti-sanction" - I have long suggested that all those who keep their savings in cash and non-cash currency, primarily in dollars, take this political risk into account..."