Scylla of Russia and Charybdis of Azerbaijan: how these countries will affect the elections in Armenia

Journalist Kirill Krivosheyev assessed the prospects for early parliamentary elections in Armenia, which will be held on June 20 against the background of the most severe crisis caused by the recent defeat of this country in the Karabakh war. So far, 32% are ready to vote for the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's My Step bloc, while 6% are for his former president and Pashinyan's main opponent, Robert Kocharyan. Half of the Armenians do not yet know what choice to make. Although, it is clear that there can be no talk of revenge for defeat or a significant increase in the standard of living.

Of course, Russia and Azerbaijan will play an important role in the outcome of the elections. It is interesting in this regard that the Kremlin demonstratively does not give preference to either Pashinyan or Kocharyan and is clearly not going to impose its will on the Armenians. And this is understandable, since the importance of strengthening relations between Russia and Armenia is recognized by 63% of Armenians, while with America and Europe - only 16% and 5%.

In all likelihood, the Kremlin will limit itself to observing the development of the election campaign in the role of a football referee, helping one or the other. Moreover, Russia does not have the ability to fully control the situation. Whereas the position of Azerbaijan, which still holds dozens of Armenian prisoners, is more definite: this country considers Kocharyan a terrorist and Pashinyan its legitimate leader.

Nor does the scandal with the Russian Iskander, which is being heatedly discussed both in Armenia and abroad, add to the optimism. The fact is that Pashinyan accused his predecessor Sargsyan of buying unusable missiles from Russia, which during the war "did not explode or only exploded by 10%". At first, Moscow was offended, saying that these missiles had not been used at all during the conflict, but then it turned out that the matter was even cooler: Azerbaijan did find unexploded missiles. And they turned out not to be an export and legal modification "E", but a modification "M", which not only is in service only with the Russian army, but also "violates the agreement on the proliferation of missile technologies, since the range of destruction of the target of these missiles exceeds 300 km".

Moreover, information about the delivery of this particular Iskander to Armenia is confirmed by a note from 2018 in Kommersant. And now the version is circulating that the missiles did not explode, since only the Russian military were able to unlock their warheads, and they did not give approval for launch. This version could seriously affect not only the Moscow police, but also the position of Kocharian and the “old Armenian elites” - why was it necessary to buy weapons that cannot be used at their own discretion?

The peacekeeping mission of Russia, which is deployed today in Nagorno-Karabakh, is also criticized; both Armenians and Azerbaijanis are dissatisfied with its work. The first, because the peacekeepers do not allow many journalists, NGO workers, public figures and representatives of the diaspora to enter this territory. This is interpreted in Armenia as a conspiracy between Moscow and Baku, while the others are unhappy with the fact that Armenian soldiers continue to be in Karabakh, who, by agreement, should have left this land long ago.

The Armenians do not like the fact that the road is blocked: Kars (Turkey) - Gyumri - Ijevan - Gazakh (Azerbaijan), which prevents them from opening communication with Russia and making money on Azerbaijani-Turkish transit. Moscow can play on this problem if it wants to attract one of the election rivals to its side.

But the role of the West in this confrontation is not yet very influential: the West has no opportunity to achieve the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Karabakh or return Armenian prisoners from Baku.

“Russia must decide what kind of Armenia it wants to see”, - Armenian President Armen Sarkissian said in a recent interview, as if inviting Moscow to the role of an internal moderator, - The first is a weakened and extremely dependent country, where there is a constant struggle of narrow groups of influence... looking for the location of the “big brother”. The second is a strong Armenia, which uses all its resources and potential to strengthen its authority and its ally and promote its interests".

Alas, not everything, as we see, depends on Russia, much depends on Armenia's sworn enemy Azerbaijan, which has powerful levers of influence on the Armenian elections.