Posted 19 апреля 2021,, 08:19
Published 19 апреля 2021,, 08:19
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
As you know, even before the announcement of new sanctions against Russia, Biden suggested that Putin meet in person on neutral territory. However, the imposition of sanctions seemed to cast doubt on the need for this meeting. Russian political analysts, who, according to their professional duties, must predict the next steps of politicians, found themselves in a very difficult situation: what will Biden and Putin say to each other? How will events develop further in this region, which is, first of all, important for Russia?
Kommersant FM observer Dmitry Drize is rather optimistic:
“The Kremlin got what it wanted - the opportunity for a direct dialogue between the presidents of Russia and the United States about the fate of the world. Everything else is secondary. Now we are likely to see the second part of the show called "our tough response" to sanctions and "the hand will not falter". However, the result is predetermined. The meeting between Putin and Biden should take place.
When and where is not so important. It cannot be ruled out that the main parameters have already been agreed upon. This was indirectly made clear by Viacheslav Volodin in his commentary on the decision of the partners - "it is better to fight terrorism together". In addition, Vladimir Putin's positive assessment of the role of the allies in the Great Patriotic War is very indicative. A similar thing happened in the era of detente - during the "big negotiations on disarmament". The second stage may well be the sending of Alexei Navalny for treatment to Germany. This is where everything goes. In fact, the partners, as a gesture of goodwill, can always partially revise the sanctions policy. Such a scenario, most likely, is also not excluded.
What makes our power structure great is its ability to transform immediately. If necessary, we will become liberals in 24 hours. Alexey Kudrin is already ready to present a reform plan. German Gref also appeared on the scene. Anatoly Chubais's turn - something needs to be done with the climate. The liberals are waiting in the wings.
However, a reasonable question is - what next? With a high degree of probability, there is no clear plan for this. We met with Biden and talked. However, further actions are not quite visible. So many problems have accumulated that it is impossible to solve them at one meeting. And here political technologies come to the rescue. We create the appearance of solutions - in order to achieve local results. Both the one and the other president need an immediate strengthening of the ratings. What happens next is also not important. This is the big problem of the modern world. Events seem to be happening not for real. But on the whole, the very fact that there is a “big political movement” is very positive. The show goes on..."
Political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya also believes that there is a chance to start a productive dialogue between the countries:
“Biden's appeal sounds like an attempt to make excuses to Russia for such unpleasant and harsh sanctions. But, nevertheless, the main question here is the nature of these sanctions. Is this basically an invitation to Russia for dialogue (so long awaited in Moscow) or an attempt to strike? It seems to me that this is still such a form of invitation to dialogue. It was simply impossible otherwise. Moscow now has an extremely difficult choice. It is no longer possible to simply agree to a meeting. The temptation to slam the door is very great, the strongest disappointment. But at the same time, there is a pragmatic understanding that there is nowhere to go - negotiations are needed. If Moscow manages to come up with something that will save face and not look like a weak side (which is whipped by an older brother), then the summit will have a chance. But even here one cannot go too far..."
But economist Vladislav Inozemtsev believes that there will be no new Russian-American reset:
Meanwhile, in my opinion, the White House is acting correctly. On the one hand, in Washington, apparently, illusions about the "power" of the Russian opposition and the "weakness" of the Putin regime are dispelled, instead of which an understanding of an unpleasant but obvious reality is returning. On the other hand, the administration could recall that changes in Russia never came as a result of pressure from outside - while all the "thaws" (late 1950s, second half of 1980s and the turn of 2000s and 2010s) happened during periods of warmer relations with the West and greater political, economic and cultural openness. It will be difficult for the Kremlin to explain the country's internal problems if the image of America as a powerful and formidable enemy fades - but dissent will have to appeal more to fellow citizens than to the outside world.
In conclusion, I would like to note: of course, there will be no new "reboot". Hugs with V. Putin and lovely home meetings - too. The time is coming for a pragmatic policy and clearly defined "red lines", nothing more..."
Political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov also does not believe in the coming changes in relations between the United States and Russia:
“Biden said nothing new in his address about relations with Russia. All known positions have been listed, all reproaches have been repeated, while we are ready to work on stable relations, primarily in the area of strategic stability. The proposal to meet in the summer in Europe has been made more specific. "Time to do de-escalation" is about Ukraine, but, as it were, about everything. However - hands off! The tonality is calm. It would be desirable to assume that this sentence is to be considered: we are in the calculation, we will start from a new page. But for some reason it is impossible to believe that this is so..."