Sberbank predicts an increase in the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to 5%

As the head of SberCIB Investment Research, Yaroslav Lisovolik, said, on April 23, the Bank of Russia may, for the first time since 2014, increase the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points at once - up to 5% per annum. The expert says that the reason for such a sharp increase in the rate is geopolitical markets, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and a rapid rise in inflation, which has spread from the food market to the rest of the economy.

“Most of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Elvira Nabiullina to increase the rate to 4.75% (Lisovolik does not exclude such a scenario), but traders of the interbank market are preparing for a different scenario and put a 50-bp step in quotes", - notes the edition finanz.ru.

A number of experts believe that in the context of the new American sanctions imposed on the Russian national debt, an increase in the Central Bank rate may negatively affect the fate of federal loan bonds (OFZ), reducing the number of people interested in purchasing them.

According to Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Global Markets, high inflation and long breaks between Central Bank meetings may nevertheless accelerate a more substantial rate hike on Friday. Tikhomirov said that the probability of a step of 50 bp. when changing the key rate is 40%.