Posted 23 апреля 2021,, 12:55
Published 23 апреля 2021,, 12:55
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Builders are in a panic, and their customers do not know whether it is worth building at the new prices.
Metallurgists acted as the headliner of the general increase in prices for building materials.
"I must say thank you to the coronavirus, because of which several factories were closed, but at the same time the demand for building materials, of course, grew. Our manufacturers took advantage of this", - told Novye Izvestia an expert of the Association of Self-Regulatory Organizations in the field of construction Andrey Ivanov. - The key thing here is “used”, no matter how much we would like to explain the rise in metal prices by trends for the entire world market".
Although for the sake of objectivity, the pandemic disrupted supply chains and the balance of supply and demand in different periods of 2019-2021. For example, at the end of 2019, China, which consumes half of the world's steel, was quarantined. Exports fell more than 20%. Russian metallurgical enterprises compensated for the losses at the expense of the domestic market by selling their products to domestic companies. But in the spring of 2020, the situation began to change not in favor of the Russian market. The coronavirus has come to Europe and Russia, and the lockdown has already begun here. And China was recovering from the epidemic and launching production. Consumption recovered, and metallurgists began to sell the metal again at a favorable price for export. With the recovery in business activity, overseas buyers are willing to double the price. Wagons of Russian scrap metal go abroad. But now the production capacity is not enough to meet the needs of all market participants. Therefore, the metal became in short supply within the country, and prices for it skyrocketed, endangering domestic business.
"In general, the same thing happened to rolled metal products as to food products. Raw material producers have received lucrative export contracts and do not want to sell their products cheaper on the domestic market. Could it be called an industry conspiracy? No doubt", - Andrey Ivanov is sure.
For how long are these high prices or forever? - a rhetorical question. It all depends on how the authorities behave. It is not enough to be limited to checks and artificial price controls. A few weeks ago, Vladimir Putin instructed the Cabinet of Ministers to develop and present solutions to reduce prices for building materials from March 1, 2021. See today's date? Nothing has changed...
However, it cannot be said that the authorities ignored the rise in prices. In December, as a temporary measure, the government already introduced a 5% export duty on waste and scrap of ferrous metals. And at the end of January, Glavgosexpertiza announced that it would now monitor prices for metal products on a weekly basis. At the same time, metal producers want to get rid of unnecessary intermediaries. The Federal Antimonopoly Service has already begun checking metal traders for collusion. At the same time it became known that the government was considering the option of introducing protective export duties in order to curb the rise in prices in the domestic market. Now the duty is 4,000 rubles, according to experts, "this is a laughing matter for the chickens." But the State Duma is still pondering what the protective barrier should be to make the sale of metallurgical raw materials unprofitable abroad.
“The lobbyists, of course, are not happy with this scenario, a cry is raised that there is an attack on market mechanisms and freedom of entrepreneurship”, - says expert Ivanov, - You need to listen less... The goal of any state is to create conditions for saturating its own market and protecting its internal consumer".
Our authorities are unforgivably late with this. And if measures are not taken now, the growth of the domestic industry and economy in Russia will not be seen in the coming years. Moreover, the further prosperity of commercial bacchanalia may lead to the closure of a number of large industrial enterprises, which will provoke a social crisis, as tens of thousands of Russians could lose their jobs and livelihoods. These sins cannot be attributed to a pandemic.
GUILTY WITHOUT WINE
According to the company "KASKAD Real Estate", the crisis was one of the first to cover the market of private construction contracts. 30% of suburban construction projects have been stopped - Russians cannot pay for budget materials at the premium price. The builders of summer cottages are under the threat of bankruptcy: there are no materials and workers. Due to errors in assessing the market situation, many developers will have to work in the negative in spring and summer, and customers will be left with unfinished construction.
"Already in May-June 2021, a wave of bankruptcies of companies building suburban housing may begin, since the cost of contracts being concluded is much lower than the rising prices for work and materials", - says the head of the Pashkov House Maxim Pashkov, - Now clients are squeezing the minimum price from contractors, and those, in a hurry to stock up on orders, agree to give a discount. They take orders, not thinking that they will have to work at a disadvantage - for the more expensive workers and materials, they will have to pay from their own profits. This will lead to a failure to meet the deadline for the performance of the obligation, and subsequently - to bankruptcy. From takeoff to fall - less than a year".
“There has not been such horror in the entire recent history of the Russian Federation since the withdrawal of the old money of the USSR from circulation”, - Grigory Samoshin, a developer from the Ramensky district, writes to the FB. - Then, each time seeing new prices, the customer literally shuddered, now he is ready to kick in the face.
In that year, the fence was made on one site - 3 sides, in total, 130 meters of the fence. Professional sheet - chocolate, not the cheapest, but in the end, together with the work, the customer received about 100,000 rubles. It's time to do the front side of the fence. I took a different metal profile a week ago for 44,000 rubles. Even the bottom of the gazelle was not covered. I called to find out about the profiled sheet, a little swelling - a sheet for the fence right now costs 525 rubles, I took it for 280 that year. In total, about 80,000 re is just metal for a 30-meter fence, without work...
In the spring of last year, due to the pandemic, an exuberant demand for country houses and summer cottages arose on the market. Due to the lack of finished projects, those wishing to isolate themselves were forced to enter the new construction market. “People were ready to buy“ here and now ”literally everything”, - Renat Bagirov, manager of the Winter Dacha exhibition of country houses, told Novye Izvestia. “When we stopped the work of the exhibition during quarantine, the most persistent visitors tried to enter the views of the houses even through closed doors and the guards had to remove them from the fences”.
Developers believe that the demand for country houses in the spring of last year has grown by more than 50% compared to the dock years. By the end of the year, the excitement only intensified - the Russians, against the background of self-isolation, realized the value of their own house, began to buy land for construction, put their dachas in order, but the first bell rang - it turned out that there was not enough materials for everyone, and prices went up.
“Last summer, the rise in prices was still not so noticeable - 5-10%”, - Kirill Dubovenko, the owner of the construction company Dom-Haus, told Novye Izvestia. - But with the beginning of 2021, just horse racing began. Since autumn, in our company, 10 country houses of varying complexity and readiness remained unfinished. In December, 17 more contracts were signed - at 2020 prices. The average turnkey house is two million rubles. Some of the materials have been purchased and are in storage. The second part must be purchased at new prices - the estimate increases by 800-900 thousand. Customers have round eyes: we paid you everything! And they still do not know that the company has an acute shortage of professional workers in connection with closed borders.
In principle, we did not hire migrants from Tajikistan, only Armenians and Belarusians, verified teams with their managers. Remuneration for labor is expensive - 100% of the cost of materials. Customers agreed to this and did not actually bargain - the guys work quickly and efficiently, there is something to pay for. In August, after the elections of Lukashenka, Belarusians left, in November six out of 15 returned, the rest either sit or carry parcels to their relatives. Since the beginning of autumn, many Armenians have left Russia and are fighting. There is no connection. Whom to take in their place?
The nomadic brigades of shabashniks from the provinces do not differ in special professionalism, but requests! Work on the construction of the foundation and assembly of the roof are 30-50% more expensive for them, the insulation of facades is 40% more expensive, and the laying of tiles is 50% more expensive. 100% increase in prices for painting services. This despite the fact that the materials themselves have risen in price by the same amount.
Customers are not ready to pay, and even more so, they are not ready to hire cheaper labor. Indeed, due to the shortage of labor, the prices for contract work have skyrocketed among migrants. And how to deal with this is not yet clear. 10 unfinished projects somehow, half-and-half, with grief. 17 new ones, one might say, did not start. For five of them we pay a penalty - as it is written in the contract. The rest are still enduring, gritting their teeth, or adjusting projects to a minimum - like, a log cottage was conceived, but there is only enough money for a bast hut.
Yesterday one such client, knocked down by the prose of life, calls: “I wanted to cover the roof with a profile, yes, you see, I’ll have to use straw. Kirill Semyonovich, find out what's wrong with the prices of straw?"
Straw, apparently, will also rise in price. Sand in a quarry closest to Dom-Haus in the southeast of the region has risen in price, moreover, in one day and immediately by 25%. Glass at the Novokharitonovo base has increased in price by 30%, and the second grade croaker has grown three times a day from 6500 rubles. per cube up to 11500, and by the evening and up to 13 thousand. The metamorphoses with the croaker, which imagined itself to be valuable lumber, can also be explained by the fact that they took place after the State Council, after Putin drew attention to the timber industry at the State Council, banned the export of round timber abroad and sawing it on the spot. But the State Council did not say anything about sand and glass at all, so no one knows with what joy they have risen in price. It just took it and INCREASED in price. This means that the process goes on by itself and no one is to blame.
The question remains - what should buyers do in an environment of complete uncertainty on the suburban market? Run away from him? Sell grandma's hut while there is demand, or, conversely, buy the first thing that comes along? Take out a loan and build on a grand scale, despite the prices, or moderate appetites to the size of a foam house, with paper wallpaper inside and linoleum at 250 re square meters?
"Do not torment yourself", - Dmitry Antonchik, an expert of the Zagorodnaya Nedvizhimost service, told Novye Izvestia. - Calculate the cash and choose the option that suits you - in the end, a large space and the opportunity to walk on your own site will be both with unfinished real estate, and next to the house for demolition. People, exhausted by lockdown, pay less attention to the state of real estate now - there would be nature around...
The interest in dachas increased significantly by March, when it became clear that the borders would not be opened and it was impossible to spend a vacation abroad. As a result of these circumstances, prices on the suburban market have also increased. Now you can count on a house for half a lemon only 400 km from Moscow, in some Oryol or Vologda province. The popularity of suburban housing in 2021 will continue to grow, analysts interviewed by the editorial board unanimously stated.
However, due to the fallen ruble and relatively high inflation, it will be expensive to build, and there is no one - because of the pandemic, labor migrants cannot return to Russia. The boom in the suburban market, they say, must also be treated with caution - many owners have put up their homes for sale at inflated prices, and more cunning ones, on the contrary, have removed them from sale until prices rise even higher. On the other hand, the best options have long been sold, and either non-standard properties or too expensive ones remain on the market. Therefore, the timing of buying a summer cottage or a house is a task without the only correct solution. But if you really want and need, then, as they say, burn it all with fire - buy and use it!