There will be no Apocalypse, but... What is the threat of disconnection from SWIFT to Russia?

As you know, on Thursday, April 29, MEPs voted in favor of a resolution calling for Russia to be disconnected from the interbank system for transmitting information on SWIFT payments and to stop the completion of Nord Stream 2.

The European Parliament also proposed blocking the assets of Russian oligarchs and their families in the EU and canceling the visas of these people. In addition, the document says about the need to stop the construction of nuclear power plants of Rosatom. For this resolution, which is not mandatory, but acts as a recommendation to the European Union, 569 deputies voted, against - 67.

It is proposed to take measures of pressure on Moscow if Russia invades the territory of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry has already announced its readiness to disconnect from SWIFT. According to Lavrov, Russia has a basis for creating a full-fledged analogue of Swift:

“I am convinced that both the government and the Central Bank should do everything to ensure that this base is reliable and guarantees complete independence and a guarantee against damage that someone may try to additionally inflict on us”.

Network analyst Vadim Zhartun explained in his publication what the threat of disconnection from SWIFT to Russia is:

“To understand what threatens us with being disconnected from SWIFT, we need to understand its role in interbank settlements, primarily in international ones. And here everything is simple: for them, SWIFT is like a metro: fast, convenient, affordable, but far from the only means of transportation around the city.

SWIFT has analogues and substitutes: the Russian financial messaging system SPFS, the Chinese CIPS, and the European INSTEX. As a last resort, you can follow the path of North Korea and use cryptocurrency, or even gold, for international payments.

Therefore, disabling SWIFT will complicate and make more expensive payments for export-import transactions, but will not stop them completely. Continuing the analogy with public transport: when a drunkard and a rowdy are not allowed on the subway, he can walk or take a taxi, so there will be no apocalypse if SWIFT is turned off.

Yes, we will once again begin to live a little worse. The income of exporters will slightly decrease, the price of imports will slightly rise (and we import a lot). However, this has been happening over the past 10 years and the people are still ready to endure it.

The problem is not at all how to replace SWIFT: when someone is kicked out of the metro, because he smells like fumes, he swears and bully his fellow travelers, this is a reason to think not about what is better to ride, but above all about what that it’s time to finally sober up..."