Posted 10 мая 2021,, 10:13
Published 10 мая 2021,, 10:13
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
There is a boom in country cottages for the middle class in Lithuania. Citizens sweep away everything that is on the market. Own houses have become especially popular among young people.
A young family, he is 23, she is 21 years old, both work, decided last year to settle in the suburbs of Vilnius. We picked up a cottage in a twin house with an area of 118 square meters on 7.5 acres. It is 14 kilometers from the center of Vilnius, but the village is within the city limits. There is no garage, but there is a parking space for a car. The house cost 130 thousand euros, although now they are asking for 155 thousand for such a cottage, so prices have increased due to demand. Now let's figure out why there is such a stir.
The first installment was 20 thousand euros, or just over 15%. The Lithuanian state paid 15 thousand as a subsidy to a young family. For 95 thousand euros, the young spouses took out a bank loan at the standard 2.25% for 30 years.
The house was rented out for finishing, all communications - gas, electricity, a water well for two houses - were supplied. Another six months was spent on repairs. The young people spent 35 thousand euros on it - and again on a loan. The bank allocated 83% of the amount at the same 2.25% for the same 30 years.
Young Lithuanians are eager to buy cottages, because utility bills in them are several times cheaper than in apartments, and they live in their own house, in nature and not far from the city. In January, the electricity bill was 69 euros, in April - 39. For comparison, these costs are comparable to a communal apartment in a 40-meter apartment in the city.
The village where the house was bought, guarded, the cost of security is 18 euros per month. Garbage collection - 40 euros per year, home insurance - 13 euros per month after renovation. For 35 thousand for finishing, of which 28 thousand will be paid by the bank, a full kitchen with household appliances, furniture for the dining room, living room and bedrooms and a fully equipped bathroom appeared in the house.
If you count in rubles, for 15 million at 2.25% for 30 years with a communal apartment of 6,000 rubles in winter and 4,000 in summer, you can live 14 km from the center of the capital. Financially, this is also not a noose, since the husband and wife work and receive 1,500 euros a month. According to experts, today's prices are close to the peak, because so quickly - 2-3% per month, they grew only before the collapse of real estate in 2008, the crisis year.
If we compare Russia and Lithuania, then real estate prices are comparable, but for everything else, there is an abyss between the former outskirts of the Russian Empire and its metropolis. While there are cottages in the Baltics, human beings are multiplying in Russian cities. Every fourth Russian who bought housing on a mortgage was able to afford an apartment of less than 30 square meters. meters, they write Izvestia. A year ago, the share of such small-sized cars was 20%.
Last fall, the average area of purchased apartments in large cities of the country decreased by 14-20%. In 2019, apartments with an average area of 72 square meters were sold in Moscow, in 2020 - only 57.8 . The same picture is in St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Yekaterinburg, realtors say. In the capital, the number of apartments with an area of less than 30 square meters has increased by a quarter in new buildings, micro-apartments are breaking records - housing with an area of less than 18 square meters. Now in Moscow, 8 such projects have already been built; 5 years ago there was only one . And all because the population is getting poorer, and the banks and the state are not going to share the profits. Preferential mortgage? 6.5%? But what about the Lithuanian, normal at 2.25%? There is a difference?
However, these crumbs from the table of the banking and construction businesses are running out. On July 1, the preferential mortgage program ends, and then everyone switches to the usual 8-9-10 percent. Preferential mortgage can be called a stretch. In the absence of other financial instruments, 46% of Russians, according to VTsIOM (the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center), consider real estate the most reliable way to keep money. In 2020, mortgage loans were issued in the amount of more than 4 trillion rubles, of which 1 trillion fell on preferential mortgages. This policy has led to the fact that housing in 10 months of 2020 has risen in price by 10%, in some cities - by all 20%. This was acknowledged by the head of "Dom.RF" Vitaly Mutko. Compared to 2019, "beneficiaries" pay more for apartments than normal mortgage holders.
Alexey Krichevsky, an expert at the Academy of Finance and Investment Management, says: “By the end of summer 2020, it was clear that preferential mortgages were not a social story at all, but purely speculative. three months after the launch of the program. Everything that has happened and is happening further is a one-sided game. Nobody, except for developers, benefits from this program. It only accelerates prices in the market, washing out liquid objects and provoking mortgage sales in 2022-2023. ".
Experts hope that after the abolition of the preferential mortgage, housing prices will begin to stagnate and then decline, but it will not become more affordable for many. The market has long been expecting an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. When this happens, interest on mortgages will inevitably rise, and not preferential, but normal.
Preferential mortgages subsidized the construction business, so more housing was introduced in the country. The cost per square meter of new buildings has increased due to objective circumstances. Director of the Etazhi real estate company Ildar Khusainov says: “The average cost per square meter in 2020 increased mainly due to objective reasons: an increase in the cost of construction due to rising prices for building materials, the transition to escrow accounts and, importantly, a reduction the volume of liquid supply on the market".
The pattern is simple: if the cost per square meter rises, construction companies build fewer houses. This means that the cost of purchased housing will rise even with falling demand.
As of April 21, the average bank mortgage rate was 7.95%, apparently taking into account the preferential program. In May last year, before the introduction of preferential mortgages, it was higher - 9.17%. Obviously, with the completion of the program, this figure will return to last year's values. With the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, it will inevitably grow further.
Suburban housing was not included in the preferential mortgage program. Obviously, the state is not interested in improving the quality of housing. In addition, the profitability of houses and townhouses for construction companies is incomparable with multi-storey "human houses". And what is bad for builders is bad for the state.
Russian banks, which have never been distinguished by their generosity to citizens, do not particularly stand on ceremony with those who want to leave the city. If you want to listen to the trills of nightingales instead of the roar of traffic and the incessant noise of the city - pay. "People's" Sberbank does not even offer an initial payment below 25% of the value of the house. Raiffeisen Bank requires a down payment of 40% and offers loans at almost 13% per annum. The picture is similar with all other banks.
We are not talking about a loan for repairs for a period of 30 years. The maximum term is 3 years. The interest on it is from 6 to 8%.
And the last thing. The average monthly salary in Russia is less than in Lithuania - in terms of 582 euros against 817 euros. Since 2013, it has been steadily declining, despite all national projects, so the absolute majority of Russians are like the moon to live in their home. Or to Lithuania.