Posner will become a robot: Experts named TV presenters who are easy to change to virtual ones

For example, the most popular (whose names were mentioned by the experts most often) for replacement were TV presenters: Vladimir Pozner, Leonid Yakubovich, Yekaterina Andreyeva, Andrey Malakhov and Ivan Urgant.

Arkady Sandler, one of the leading experts in the development and implementation of systems based on artificial intelligence in Russia, launched the study "The Impact of Conversational Interface Automation Systems on Business Transformation", in which he interviewed 70 specialists in the field. The research participants were researchers working in the field of machine learning. Doctors of Engineering, AI Engineers, Chatbot Specialists, and Innovation Leaders from various companies.

The research project was divided into two stages: the first was a general cut of the market and expert forecasts. The full version (including the second phase of the study) is already in preparation. But already at the first stage of work on the project, Arkady highlighted the most interesting comments, assessments and curious remarks of the research participants.

So. In addition to practical issues related to the field of application of robots and virtual assistants (VA), the difficulties and specifics of their implementation in business, experts shared their forecasts for the future and named the names of famous people who can be easily replaced by a robot.

For example, the most popular (whose names were mentioned by the experts most often) for replacement were TV presenters: Vladimir Pozner, Leonid Yakubovich, Yekaterina Andreyeva, Andrey Malakhov and Ivan Urgant. Among the representatives of other spheres, famous entrepreneurs Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Pavel Durov, as well as Cleopatra and Santa Claus were named as robots.

Several experts also noted Dmitry Nagiyev, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Yelena Malysheva, Nikita Mikhalkov and Steve Jobs.

Assessing the areas of application of robots and VA, the experts identified the functions of the company, where artificial intelligence projects are most often implemented (especially systems for automating conversational interfaces - virtual assistants).

The most demanded (indicated by 87% of experts) for the implementation of IA was the company's customer service function. Other important areas were: sales (noted by 44% of experts), administrative services of the company (30%), recruiting (29%), finance (29%), personnel management (27%), marketing (27%) and internal communications (16 %).

The survey participants also chose the industries in which the most projects on artificial intelligence and the integration of voice robots into the activities of companies have already been implemented. The spheres-champions turned out to be: financial / banking (noted by 76% of experts), telecommunications (47%), online trading (44%).

At the same time, the experts single out the entertainment sector as the next category (albeit significantly lagging behind the first group) (16%). And this is a very indicative trend. Experts predict that in the near future, virtual robots can completely replace bloggers.

Arkady Sandler explains: “Our research has shown that the next big wave of the introduction of conversational intelligence (VA) will be in the sphere of entertainment and media. Virtual assistants, first of all, depend on the content: its completeness and quality. Technology has come to a state where IA can work with a much larger volume of content, more varied and more contextually appropriate. It is quite possible that part of the time that is now engaged in brief entertainment content - TikTok, Instagram, etc. - will be occupied by communication with a multimedia virtual assistant. It will be like chatting with a girlfriend: interesting, fun, sometimes useful".

Experts explain this by the fact that in these industries there is always a large flow of customers requiring automation. And since most of the requests are typical, robots can easily cope with the solution of such tasks. Plus, according to experts, companies from these areas are the most technologically advanced and digitalized (in comparison with other areas), have good resources and large budgets for implementing AI projects.

“In these areas, the greatest demand from consumers, especially in connection with the pandemic. And also in large cities, where people strive for maximum automation of all household processes and preservation of their own time. Plus, it is in these areas that the processes themselves are the easiest to automate, do not require logical or creative thinking on the part of people. That is, it is much easier and faster to algorithmize processes in these areas”, - one of the research participants commented.

At the same time, least of all (but there are already examples of integrations) projects have been implemented for the introduction of IA in the industrial / manufacturing sector, FMCG, consulting, medical, transport and housing and communal services.

The question of forecasts for the future has become traditional, but no less relevant for researchers: will robots completely replace humans and in what areas. In this case, the opinions of the experts were divided. About 30% say that nowhere and never robots will completely replace humans. Perhaps they will help reduce the presence of a person, but partially. At the same time, some experts refer to the fact that in the coming years the hybrid system will dominate - an approach that allows combining the work of a human and a robot.

But more than 50% of the survey participants identified areas in which robots can completely replace a person soon: banking and finance, the entertainment industry, online sales, digital media, telecommunications, technical support and services, call centers, concierge services.

On the other hand, experts name the areas in which human work will always be a priority: where an individual approach, non-standard creative thinking and human emotions are needed. This is the field of education, where there are many nuances and a person needs explanation by a person. These are such creative directions as PR, writing, music, etc.

As well as the field of medicine (including psychology), where the manifestation of empathy and human attention is important (there are high risks of making a mistake). The study participants also highlighted the police, where robots will never replace humans in solving crimes, the sphere of social assistance and ... talk shows where people come to look at a famous person - a living person, personality.

It is interesting that in two areas - psychology and parenting - the opinions of experts were divided. Some of them argue that in these areas a robot will never replace a human. Since these are too delicate areas that require empathy, intuition and developed emotional intelligence. Especially in the field of raising children. “Because the transfer of educational functions and the early stages of education of a child (up to three years old) is a strategically important area for humanity - for survival, development, evolution”, - the research participant comments.

At the same time, when asked where the use of VA can be successful in the future (although not yet standard), several experts named the field of child education. For example, to expand the parental control function - to create a "virtual nanny" or "housewife" that will remind the child to eat, do homework, do not play on the console until he cleans the room...

Among other non-trivial options, where robots can quite successfully replace a person, experts pointed out:

- Virtual friend-companion for single people;

- Robots for the "smart city" that look for the elderly, the blind, children, inform them, help them cross the street, take them home, etc .;

- A virtual teacher for the development of speaking skills, teaching foreign languages, etc.;

- Bots for flirting;

- Bots that read the media and make predictions.

In general, the opinion of most experts coincides: robots can replace humans in almost all areas where there are typical tasks. From personal life to research, VA will have its uses, but not 100%. Everything will depend on the level of development of these robotic assistants. Thus, one of the survey participants adds: “Neural network VA will never completely replace anyone, because they are too simple. But virtual assistants of a new generation based on mivar networks of logical artificial intelligence will be able to replace everyone except the spheres of communication between people and people: psychologists, etc. But they can also be replaced...”.

Experts also named the most successful, in their opinion, virtual assistants: Siri, Amazon Alexa, OK Google (Google Assistant), Alisa (Yandex), Oleg (Tinkoff). Although what is their uniqueness is explained in different ways. For example, in Alice, they celebrate creativity - it is very interesting to have conversations with her. However, she "can sometimes be rude." On the other hand, Alice's behavior is explained by the presence of a large amount of data, which allows her to answer a large number of questions and "pretend that she understands the context :)".

At the same time, some research participants emphasize that there is no uniqueness in any known VA: rather, there are reasons for success and refer to the fact that “Siri entered the voice assistants market earlier than others,” and the creators of other virtual robots simply managed to “make a certain image, which is interesting ”(for example, Google Assi-stant).

Among the lesser known, but successful, they also named: the robot Sophia, Mitsuku, Newton.

At the same time, 9% of experts find it difficult to choose the best IA, claiming that there are still no bright and successful examples in the world.

When building and launching voice robots, professionals often face a number of barriers. For example, with ambiguity and constant language change. For a robot, this is a complex and challenging task. Especially if he has to recognize long non-standard queries. Another problem is the limited understanding (for example, the context of the question is difficult for a robot, inability to solve an abstract problem).

But more often than not, research participants cite not technical problems, but problems... in relationships. Like humans, robots have their own difficulties in this matter: you cannot make love to robots, you cannot achieve empathy, etc. Lack of emotion, a sense of belonging, "zero" EQ - the main problem, according to the study participants.

At the same time, there are ideological difficulties - problems in the relationship between the robot and the person. As one of the experts notes, if a virtual assistant starts competing with people (experts), then they will resist (refuse to share their experience, which is necessary to train this particular robot).

Although in the future these problems can be solved. “There are horizons of 10, 30, 100 years, when AI problems of different complexity will be completely solved. The emulation of personality is already being addressed. However, the quality of the solution is still insufficient for world recognition. Emulation of self-reflection, awareness of situations, ethics: the solution horizon is 10-20 years. Fully aware of themselves machines, indistinguishable from people in terms of understanding the world and talking in all areas, like scientists and experts - the horizon is 30-50 years ", - sums up one of the experts.

The next stage of the research has already been launched: Arkady Sandler conducts interviews with experts, in-depth analysis of the sphere and market analyst.