Bluff in exchange for support: how Lukashenko sells himself to Russia

Journalist Artyom Shraibman analyzes the possible consequences of the episode with the Ryanair passenger plane, which was landed in Minsk on Lukashenko's orders, only to arrest opposition journalist Roman Protasevich.

In connection with this extraordinary event, the isolation of Lukashenko has reached a new level, and the West will take new harsh measures against him. The Belarusian sky is already virtually closed for European airlines, and Belarusian planes are prohibited from flying over Europe, and economic sanctions will follow, which will also hit the export of Belarusian goods. Will not remain aloof from the allies and the United States.

Even Hamas, which dragged Lukashenko in as an excuse for his act, condemned the actions of the Belarusian dictator, asking not to use himself as a cover for the suppression of freedom of speech.

In this regard, many are asking the question, couldn’t Lukashenko have foreseen such a reaction? The expert believes that, apparently, he really did not foresee, since the life in the mode of survival, which Lukashenko now leads, exacerbates "tunnel vision", when energy is directed only to neutralizing enemies, and the side effects caused by these actions drop out of the adoption process solutions. “The mechanisms for rejecting dangerous and reckless steps simply stopped working”, - the author believes, and people from his circle are simply afraid to criticize Lukashenko for his decisions.

As a result, Belarus turned overnight into one of the most toxic countries in the world for any form of international cooperation. Athletes do not go to it, Minsk has lost its attractiveness for transit tourists, which brought great profits to both the airport and the state airline Belavia, which now has a very sad future. The country is finally losing its attractiveness for Western investors and businessmen, and the losses from the impending sanctions are even difficult to calculate.

Moreover, all these measures will hit both ordinary citizens and the opposition, which simply will not be able to leave the country, but the West now mainly protects its own interests, and does not help the Belarusians to solve their problems with the authorities. In relations with Belarus, an atmosphere of forever burned bridges now reigns, the expert believes.

However, Minsk was not afraid to do all this because it feels Moscow's cover, and all Lukashenko's actions are his asset for talking with Russia.

“The message to Putin is that there will be no more anti-Western Belarusian leader, which means that we must hold on to this…” - the author writes. True, it is unclear whether Moscow is ready to tolerate this, since dissatisfaction with Lukashenko’s actions is becoming more and more obvious in the Russian “elite”.

This is where the summit of Biden and Putin is mixed, since now the Belarusian opposition has managed, with the help of Lukashenko, to ensure that Biden will discuss this problem with the Russian president. Given the complex relations between the United States and Russia, the establishment of at least some kind of mutual understanding is possible precisely in the Belarusian direction, since Moscow is unlikely to discuss the Ukrainian one, which is risky in every sense. “The more efforts Lukashenko invests in his international toxicity, the more important it becomes for the West to show that his pressure on the Belarusian regime leads to some tangible consequences, and Russia remains the only country that can seriously influence the behavior of the Belarusian authorities”, - the expert concludes...