Lukashenko scared even Kim Jong-un. Belarus has turned into a bully country

Two sensational statements are being vividly discussed today by social networks and the media. First, the words of the head of the Hamas Politburo Musa Abu Marzuk, who condemned Minsk for involving the conflict between Palestine and Israel in the personal plans of the dictator: “This is outrageous and demonstrates the archaic thinking of the Belarusian government, which does not understand that we are now living in an age of free media and that there is international public opinion that no longer accepts such methods".

And secondly, the official warning issued by the Ministry of Transport of North Korea in its official twitter account for the citizens of the country about the undesirability of air travel to Belarus. And although this statement in itself is funny, since the citizens of the DPRK are not able to move freely around the world, nevertheless, it testifies to the depth of the fall of the Lukashenko regime.

The philosopher Eduard Nadtochy writes in his channel about this that there are three concepts for states outside the system of international law: a rogue state (pariah), a hooligan state (bandit) and a failed state:

“In principle, they mean a different state of this kind of political formations. For example, Syria is both a rogue state and a failed state, and North Korea is a rogue state and a bully state. Until now, Belarus was just an outcast, and now it has also begun a career as a bully. Russia is still in the status of a hooligan, and its outcast is still partial. It is curious that Israel is also considered among the outcasts, although for some reason it is not classified as a hooligan (but should, in principle). But Palestine is a failed state, but the status of a hooligan or an outcast cannot yet be assigned to them due to the absence of real subjectivity..."

In this situation, the behavior of Russia is extremely interesting: will it support its “ally” Lukashenko, or will it renounce him?

For example, the philosopher Dmitry Luchikhin suspects that the incident with the plane is a previously and carefully planned joint action of Belarus and Russia, carried out with a completely understandable goal:

“There is such a vague feeling that the hijacking of the plane is not a goal, but a means. Not a script, but a script episode. He's too deliberate and demonstrative. Perhaps the reaction of the West is the real goal of the operation, so to speak, the initiation of isolation by someone else's hands. And the "skin" of a hated journalist is just a small bonus. Batka cockroaches are inscrutable. But in reality Russia has nothing to negotiate with the EU. Judging by how preoccupied they are with suppressing any thought that is not brave, even just enlightenment, they need a reason for isolation like air. It is desirable with minimized discontent of the loyal, but deprived of the usual pleasures of the mass population. "It's not us, it's them."

Alas, they are not at all stupid, although within the framework of medieval logic. But who can say that then everyone was stupid. They are completely ideological and ideologically obsessed. Simply appropriation and autocratic management of all resources naturally enters into the idea that they profess..."

But political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov believes that Russia will disown Belarus:

“It seems that those who too zealously supported the air adventure of the Belarusian president will have to change their shoes in the air. After the United States announced that it had no questions to Russia on this incident, and the EU began to impose tough sanctions against Belarus, domestic rhetoric began to change. An additional trigger was the arrest of a citizen of the Russian Federation Sapieha, as well as the confessions of the detained oppositionists given by them in the pre-trial detention center. After that, even ultra-patriotic commentators declared the inadmissibility of holding the Russian woman by the KGB of the Republic of Bashkortostan, and Margarita Simonyan wrote that the testimony given in the dungeons looked unconvincing.

Today Lukashenko has to give public explanations. By the way, he was going to give them yesterday, but for some reason he postponed the event, apparently, preparations are underway and the message often changes. After the announced version about the terrorist act, allegedly prepared by the Hamas group (the leader of the movement denied this version and made harsh criticism of Lukashenko), even North Korea hastened to disown the Belarusian leadership, officially calling the territory of the republic a dangerous place for flights. Considering the fact that the Irish plane turned to more distant Minsk instead of landing in nearby Vilnius, the crew made a decision under pressure, incl. - the military. And if, for the sake of revenge on the author of the tg-channel, a fighter was indeed lifted into the air, then the plane with 160 passengers on board was really taking a big risk, which means that the airspace over the territory controlled by the Lukashenko regime is definitely not safe.

You can already imagine what exactly Lukashenko will tell you. Remembering his monologue about "Mike and Nick", voiced by the embarrassed Mishustin, the conversation about the hijacked plane will be about the same genre. Of course, for many reasons, the Belarusian crossbow plays into the hands of Russia, but on the eve of the Biden-Putin summit, direct support of the “air pirate” is clearly not the best move. It is better now to retire from Lukashenko, who has lost his sense of proportion, and then to buy the bankrupt Belavia on the cheap, like other remnants of the pre-default Belarusian economy..."

Another political scientist, Alexander Ivakhnik, is also sure that the Kremlin will not be too zealous with Lukashenko's support:

“The ban for Belarusian airlines to cross the EU airspace and use European airports will be painful not only for the country's officials who have not yet been included in the sanctions lists, but also for business representatives and all Belarusians in general who have funds for travel abroad. Essentially, only the eastward direction remains open. And the call for air carriers from the EU to avoid flights over the territory of Belarus, which has already been followed by the largest European companies, will deal a blow to the country's transit revenues. Finally, the fourth sanctions package will be tightened and accelerated, which will include not only individuals, but, possibly, sectoral economic restrictions. According to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the new penalties will affect both the persons involved in the hijacking of the plane and the enterprises and businesses that “finance the regime” of Lukashenko.

It is difficult to say whether Old Man expected such a decisive answer. But it is clear that such a response will not induce him to soften the course. Lukashenko defiantly burned bridges with the West, and one can rather expect a psychopathic reaction on his part in the form of tougher repression and an intensified search for enemies inside and outside. But the number of dissatisfied people in Belarus will undoubtedly increase, incl. and among the ranks of the elite, especially if new economic sanctions hit hard on business and treasury revenues. Father's hope for Russia's help in this situation may turn out to be ephemeral, especially since the Kremlin seems to be placing high stakes on the upcoming summit of Putin and Biden..."