The Black Sea will become a trap: what is the threat to Russia from the construction of the Istanbul Canal

Turkish President Erdogan announced that the Istanbul shipping canal, which will become an alternative to the Bosphorus, will begin construction at the end of June 2021. The new channel will connect the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea. Construction work is scheduled to be completed by 2028. This was reported by the Anadolu agency. Erdogan also said that a new waterway will appear on both banks of the city, both of them will "decorate" the image of Istanbul. In April, Erdogan reported that after the creation of the canal, the ecological situation in the Bosphorus region will significantly improve. In addition, the capacity of the new sea artery of 160 vessels per day will eliminate queues at the entrance to the Bosphorus.

“Of course, there will be those who will express concern about this project”, - Erdogan’s agency was quoted as saying. According to the Turkish President, the construction of the canal will increase the geostrategic importance of Istanbul. The Istanbul channel project was announced by Erdogan in 2011. In December 2019, the Turkish President announced that maritime traffic through the canal would not be subject to the Montreux Convention.

These plans have already caused controversy in several countries, one way or another depend on the Black Sea straits, write experts Telegram channel Nezygar:

“Transport and logistics projects initiated by a number of Middle Eastern countries may endanger the economic strengthening of Russia in the southern and southeastern directions.

First of all, we are talking, of course, about the Istanbul shipping canal, which Turkish President Recep Erdogan announced the main project of his two next terms.

Man-made "Istanbul", built on the principle of Suez and Panama, should become an alternative to the natural Bosphorus and partly the Dardanelles. Thus, Turkey gains control over the traffic of ships passing into the Black Sea.

The canal will be built within the framework of the geopolitical concept of Mavi Vatan ("Blue Motherland"), which the Turkish generals have been developing for more than a decade. Its essence is the expansion of both economic and military presence in the Aegean, Marmara and Black and Mediterranean Seas.

These plans cause concern not only among Russia, which has been actively developing the Black Sea infrastructure in recent years. This is the creation of a new transshipment complex in the Novorossiysk port, and the expansion of the dry-cargo area of the new port of Taman with the modernization of the intra-port infrastructure.

Romania, which owns the second largest Black Sea port of Constanta, is also concerned. Moreover, now in parliament, at the suggestion of the Social Democrats, the prospects for the development of the port are being discussed. It should be connected with the internal parts of the country by a new highway, which is still only long-term construction.

The discussion around the Istanbul channel project is under way in Greece as well. The construction of the canal is associated with the strengthening of NATO's influence in the Black Sea region. Greece in this case may find itself between the rock and the hard place of the two superpowers.

Fears are heightened by American plans for the port of Alexandroupolis, which could be an ideal strategic point for the rapid deployment of American or NATO troops not only in the Balkans or Central Europe, but also in Eastern Europe..."

Analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan writes about what exactly Erdogan's plans for Russia threaten:

“By “those who express concern”, no doubt, Erdogan understands Russia. Actually, it is she who becomes the main victim in this story, since the Montreux Convention compensated for the weakness and lack of self-sufficiency of the Black Sea Fleet, which was built on the basis of two basic prerequisites: the only military enemy in the Black Sea is Turkey, warships of third countries cannot provide any significant impact on the general situation in the Black Sea.

Now everything is changing. And it doesn't even matter how legally correct Erdogan's statement that the Istanbul channel is not subject to the convention is - this is a controversial and controversial issue. The important thing is that this is a political decision, and it has been announced.

“Istanbul” means that NATO gains control over the entire Black Sea, and those who disagree with this can turn to either Sportloto or the League of Sexual Services. Well, either they will try to restore the status quo that existed before Istanbul. Let's say by force.

In this interpretation, we are talking neither more nor less about the strategic defeat of Russia in the South. Three hundred years of wars with Turkey (and its allies) ultimately led to the creation of a fairly durable order, where the Black Sea became a zone of balance of interests of Russia (and the USSR) and Turkey. Now this balance will be completely destroyed, and Russia has no answer other than banning tomatoes and tourist traffic with Turkey. Erdogan found it out experimentally, and the result he was completely satisfied with..."

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It remains to add that a consolidated opinion of scientists on the impact that the new channel will have on the natural environment has not yet been worked out. It is known that there are two opposite currents in the Bosphorus, the hydrology of this strait is strange and not clearly understood. The bottom current goes from the Sea of Marmara to the Black Sea, while the surface current goes in the opposite direction from the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea. How and what will change after the construction of the canal, scientists argue and do not come to a common opinion.