Yelena Ivanova, Natalia Seibil
Switzerland is proud of its "hotel" diplomacy. Who just met in the city of Calvin - Geneva - with each other. Now experts recall the memorable meeting of Ronald Reagan with Mikhail Gorbachev 36 years ago, which marked the beginning of the end of the Cold War, and warn - do not expect any breakthroughs from today's Geneva. The only thing that unites the two summits is the background. Relations between the current and former superpowers have not been this bad in the past 30 years. “Too much has happened” - that's what they usually say about married couples who can't find a common language after decades of living together. This formula, however, is not suitable for relations between the United States and Russia - the actors are different, their interests are different, and the blockages grow from year to year.
Even with Vladimir Putin's meeting with Joe Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump, the upcoming summit cannot be compared. Time magazine recalls that Trump refused to criticize Putin and ignored intelligence data about Russian interference in the 2016 US elections. Unlike Trump, Biden never wrote enthusiastic letters to Putin at any stage of his career and did not refuse criticism, although through his spokesman Jane Psaki he said that he wanted "predictability and stability" in relations with Russia.
Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Center for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations named after V.I. EAT. Primakov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexey Arbatov defined the agenda of the American president as follows:
- Biden wants to restore dialogue on issues where Russia and the United States traditionally have common interests, above all, arms control. He would like to touch upon a number of other issues related to Crimea, Donbass, human rights - but here it is impossible to set specific goals, but to express the American attitude and, if possible, to receive additional assurances from Russia that it is not going to renew the war on Donbass, on human rights. He needs all this for an internal audience.
According to Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, Joe Biden has identified his priorities. The strategic adversary of the United States now is not Russia, but China. Russia, in this situation, is an irritant that makes it difficult to focus on the main thing.
- Of course, Biden understands that the problem of Russia cannot be solved, at least in the foreseeable future, as long as there are mental groups in power, whose views are not comparable. But it is possible to structure these relations.
The problems of Ukraine or human rights in Russia cannot be resolved now. But as Biden's America returns to multilateralism, it is possible to move forward in resolving some regional conflicts. Political scientist Malek Dudakov believes that the summit can turn from a ritual into a real one, although not on the main problems and hot topics:
"Any conversation is always better than saber rattling. I think that the Russian side and the American side understand that this summit will not bring any breakthroughs, it is another matter that on some not the hottest topics - not sanctions, not Ukraine, not Belarus, but on some peripheral issues like climate , the Arab-Israeli conflict, like Iran - on these issues, Russia and the United States may come to some kind of agreement. Some results can be expected here".
Experts are worried by the fact that there has not been a serious dialogue between Russia and the United States on arms control for a dozen years. The new administration sincerely wants to reopen the discussion because the control system is collapsing. According to Alexey Arbatov, this is the only question that worries Joe Biden:
"The only issue that must be resolved, I hope, will be resolved and which can be considered a success in international politics is the decision to start negotiations on the next agreement on strategic arms".
President Biden will certainly touch upon topics that are unpleasant for Moscow. First of all, we are talking about the situation around Ukraine and the latest exercises with thousands of soldiers and pieces of equipment along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The White House has already informed the world community that the American president will ask his Russian counterpart about the persecution of the opposition and the situation around its leader Alexey Navalny. However, no one has any illusions that the Russian position on these issues will change.
"Of course not! It is not a tradition to make concessions under pressure. As for domestic politics, human rights, Navalny - this is generally a red line. Putin constantly says about this that we will not allow anyone to interfere”, - says Andrey Kortunov.
The situation with the landing of the Raynair plane intensified the negative background before the meeting in Geneva, but it is not critical. Biden has no illusions about Lukashenko, the authoritarian regime in Belarus and the role of Russia. Surely Biden will call on Putin not to interfere in the internal affairs of a neighboring state, and Putin will reproach Biden that it is they, the Americans, who are interfering, even the attempt against the daddy organized. But these will rather be ritual statements. The Americans have practically no levers of influence, therefore there is nothing to bargain on. Even the fact that the plane landed in Minsk and the blogger Protasevich was arrested on the eve of the meeting, and no one even tried to cancel it, suggests that this topic is in the middle of the list and does not belong to the priority ones.
For Vladimir Putin, the meeting in Geneva is, on the one hand, ritual and, on the other hand, strategic. The new American president arrives in Europe for the first time after the elections, and after a meeting with the European allies sits down at the negotiating table with the Russian president - isn't this a confirmation that the whole policy was correct?
"On the part of Putin, this is a desire to prove that despite everything that the Kremlin and Moscow have done in recent years, which caused outbursts of indignation in the West, sanctions, countermeasures, all the same, the West, represented by its leader the United States, is forced to come and sit down at the negotiating table , which, by definition, should be on an equal footing. Everyone who said that Putin is leading to a complete rupture, complete collapse, or even to a war, they turned out to be wrong, and the West is forced to negotiate with us again", - says Alexey Arbatov.
Andrey Kortunov believes that the very fact of the meeting is important for the Russian president. Symbolically, Moscow is on a par with the only superpower. That is why Kremlin commentators even call the very fact of negotiations a victory for Putin.
Strategically, the Russian leadership has a more serious problem than satisfying its own ambitions. After the war in Donbass and the annexation of Crimea, the country has been living under sanctions for 7 years. Because of this, the economy stagnates and the standard of living is falling. The real disposable income of the population decreased in 2013, the pre-war year, by 10%. Experts have no illusions that the United States, after one meeting, will abandon the use of sanctions against Russia. But there is hope that with the resumption of the dialogue there will be fewer of them. Alexey Arbatov believes that with the start of negotiations on strategic weapons, the sanctions policy may soften:
"The fact that, if negotiations begin, both parties will be interested in not aggravating the political atmosphere always affects positively both the sanctions affairs, and, in general, the relations between states, and the domestic policy of the United States and especially in Russia, where in our country, of course, the media are under stricter control and serve the current foreign and domestic policy. It will have an impact".
Even before the negotiations, Biden must adopt a new package of sanctions, which will be a kind of signal. If several officials fall under the restrictions, this is one thing, experts say. If the sanctions are sectoral, this is a completely different story.
"For the introduction of new sanctions, reasons are needed, with the normalization of relations maybe there will be fewer reasons, fewer sanctions will be introduced. But they will not abandon the sanctions policy", - Malek Dudakov is sure.
Before the meeting of the presidents, a series of talks are planned between Russian and American officials. Foreign Minister Lavrov and Secretary of State Blinken will talk first. Then National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan and Chairman of the Security Council Nikolay Patrushev will discuss their questions. The presidents will be the last to meet.
Russian expert Alexey Arbatov is very cautious:
"While the summit has not yet taken place, it may still fail. We are already used to such turns. When it will take place, even if nothing is decided there, but a special summit meeting organized for the two presidents will take place, what could not be done with Trump, whom we loved so much, it will be Putin's political victory".