Experts believe that the country is not ripe for a bipartisan system

As you know, the head of the "United Russia," Medvedev said in an interview with "Kommersant" said that sooner or later will develop a two-party system in Russia, there remain two, at least three major political forces, and dozens of "wildcats" (in Russian it's "zhyvopyrki" - editor's note) disappear. "Wildcats", according to Medvedev, are small parties that still manage to get into parliament. Commenting on this statement to the Kstati telegram channel, political scientist Konstantin Kostin recalled that in order to form a two-party system, according to the theory of Maurice Duverger, only 100% majority elections are needed. Only they will lead to a two-party system. But even in Great Britain and the United States, there are de jure parties.

“This is due to the rules for holding elections, as well as how the idea of political representation is implemented in the national legislation. In Russia, the system is one and a half party. There is United Russia as the largest majority shareholder - and there are other parliamentary parties. If we analyze the preferences of voters, then over time a certain left-wing political party may appear, which consolidates all the political forces of this spectrum. Now even in the State Duma there are two such parties, these are the "traditionally left" communists and the new left "Fair Russia". The situation is such that if you just analyze the current political preferences of the inhabitants of Russia, then they sympathize with the party of the center, as well as the party of the "left", rather even the Social Democratic".

Over time, fewer and fewer Russians will vote for the Communist Party, if only because naturally there will be fewer of those who have strong nostalgia for the USSR. This means that the communists will have to significantly correct their ideology in order to remain an attractive political force.

“In 20-30 years it will be as relevant to appeal to the positive experience of the USSR as the few monarchists to the successes of the Russian Empire,” Kostin explained.

Yes, there are liberal-minded voters in Russia as well. Traditionally, there were about 10 percent of them, but after the events of 2014, the "Crimean consensus", their number has noticeably decreased. Conditional "progressives" can now either join the Party of the Center, or they will need some other representation.

“A bipartisan system at the federal level? The head of United Russia spoke about the future, but one must understand that the organization of election campaigns is becoming more and more costly. Only large parties will be able to organize and conduct nationwide voting. And this is also a factor that stimulates the unification and consolidation of parties. But while there are elections on the party list, there is always a chance for small parties to overcome the passing barrier due to the situational electorate. And it doesn't matter if it will be super-high as in Turkey, average as in Russia or low as in the countries of northern Europe...”, - - concluded Kostin.

For his part, political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov believes that some big left-wing political force could become an alternative and "the second leg of the stool" in a bipartisan political system.

“Surkov planned to create this one at one time. Today we are looking at another problem: a possible merger of the Left Socialist-Revolutionaries and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Indeed, due to the Soviet past of our country, a two-party system can only exist in this way. The second party may be - like the American Democrats - a more "leftist", more democratic agenda. This is ecology, social and so on. Only such a "two-legged stool" is possible with us", - the expert believes.

We lived with one party for a long time. Two pariahs are even a luxury for us. The party and politics in our country, in fact, is either a business or a civil service - with a fairly apolitical people..."

At the same time, Grashchenkov believes that Fair Russia has turned from democrats into ultra-right radicals.

Political analyst Natalia Yeliseyeva added that the transition to a two-party system is an issue that usually comes up before elections. According to her, many parties are a colossal dilution of votes, such a system is destructive. Now the "parliamentary quartet" has been formed and there is an understanding of what exactly each political force is.

“Everyone uses the left agenda now. There are statements that the Communist Party and the Socialist-Revolutionaries must unite. Plus new small parties, which are not clear what message they carry. Perhaps this is the reason for Medvedev's statement. But this is a rather strange position, because the question is not only in the number of parties, but also in their quality. The same communists - their relevance is getting lower every year. It's the same with the Liberal Democratic Party. The Socialist-Revolutionaries also cause doubts: their semantic content does not change. However, the same can be said about the EP. Even in the USA there are certain problems and two parties do not save the situation. There is always a serious struggle between them..."

In our reality, if two or three parties remain, this will only reduce the blurring of votes. But to say that a constructive will appear is incorrect. And, frankly speaking, there are no preconditions for the transition to a two-party system in Russia.

“We don't have that many parties. But in any case, if any changes await us, then only after the elections. There is no talk of a transition to a two- or three-party system yet”, - concluded Yeliseyeva.