What is the reason for S-400 and Pantsir-S air defense systems supplement for Minsk

These is what the leadership of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation announced In Minsk, at the MILEX 2021 military-technical salon.

Victor Kuzovkov

A feature of the possible agreement is that air defense systems of the S-400 type are very expensive. In particular, a contract of comparable volume to India for the purchase of the aforementioned complexes cost about $ 5.5 billion, and it is not yet clear by what scheme the contract with Belarus will be implemented. True, there is still no clarity about the amount of equipment supplied - perhaps Minsk's appetites will turn out to be much more modest than Delhi's, and it will cost only one anti-aircraft missile regiment with a couple of divisions with a total of 12 to 24 mobile transport launchers (TPU).

Just in case, let us clarify that Belarus at the moment already has a very powerful "anti-aircraft shield", consisting of one anti-aircraft missile brigade and three anti-aircraft missile regiments armed with long-range anti-aircraft missile systems S-300 PS. Eight divisions of these air defense systems were delivered to Minsk from 2006 to 2016 from Russia either free of charge or under a netting scheme, when in exchange Moscow received various Belarusian-made tractors, including those for the Topol and Yars strategic mobile missile systems".

In addition to long-range air defense systems, the Belarusian army is armed with medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems 9K37 "Buk", small-radius air defense systems 9K332 "Tor-M2E", as well as older, but still considered combat-ready short-range complexes "Osa". In total, the air defense forces of Belarus are represented by at least two anti-aircraft missile brigades and several anti-aircraft missile regiments for various purposes. In terms of saturation with air defense systems, Belarus is traditionally one of the most "advanced" states in the world, probably bypassing the USA and Russia in this indicator (taking into account the vastness of the territories and zones of control of these states). In particular, after the collapse of the USSR, Belarus inherited a solid legacy of 650 launchers of anti-aircraft missiles of various types, while the US Army at that time had only 826 of them.

This, in general, is not surprising - the western flank of the defense has always been the most significant for Moscow, and even despite the presence of an advanced outpost in the form of the Warsaw Pact countries, the forces and means were not spared to strengthen the western line of air defense and missile defense. But as practice shows, they are not very sorry for them now, and no matter what the Russian and Belarusian “doves of peace” say, it is obvious that Minsk needs new air defense systems not only to land civilian planes with oppositionists.

So why could Minsk need new air defense systems of various types? After all, the S-300 PS complexes, although this is far from the “last squeak” of air defense systems, are still considered very formidable means of engaging air targets. If you do not delve into the technical characteristics, these systems in relatively comfortable conditions (that is, without powerful electronic countermeasures) are able to shoot down absolutely any aerodynamic target, as well as many types of ballistic targets. The Buk and Tor complexes, which cover their "older brothers" from high-precision weapons, anti-radar missiles and cruise missiles flying at ultra-low altitudes, significantly increase the combat stability of Belarusian air defense systems and make them, if not invulnerable (alas, what is not, that no), then at least very combat-ready. And even if there is a fighter cover for the air defense of the Republic of Belarus, it can be considered one of the most powerful in the world - perhaps the republic in terms of protection from air attacks is, if not in the top 5, then certainly in the top 10 states of the world.

But the challenges facing Minsk do not stand still - the air attack means of a potential enemy are constantly being improved, and the proximity of the not very friendly NATO bloc makes the Belarusian military literally with triple vigilance consider all changes in this sensitive direction. And you can treat Lukashenka and his regime as you like, the point is that the current Minsk government does not feel very comfortable in such a “friendly” semi-environment - Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine...

One of the challenges facing Belarus is the likely purchase of F-35 stealth fighters by Poland. More precisely, the corresponding agreement between Warsaw and Washington was signed in January 2020, and the first squadron of these attack aircraft should reach operational readiness in 2028. And this is quite critical - the likelihood of a successful confrontation of not the newest S-300 PS air defense systems with the latest American strike stealth aircraft is very much in doubt. True, not everything is obvious with the S-400 complexes - no one has yet reliably tested their effectiveness against the F-35. Both sides - the American and the Russian - confidently talk about the superiority of their weapons in a possible confrontation, and it is still impossible to say for sure whether the air defense of the Republic of Belarus will be ready to confront the updated Polish air force. But still, this is an undoubted step forward, and it is obvious that Minsk is very interested in it.

Separately, it should be noted the significantly greater range of the Russian S-400 air defense system. If the missiles of the S-300 PS complex hit targets at a distance of 90 kilometers, then the S-400 with its 40N6E missiles is capable of hitting targets at a distance of 380 kilometers, or more than four times further! It is assumed that the S-400 regiment received by Belarus will be deployed near Minsk to cover the capital from air attacks. In this case, the S-400 missiles will almost reach Warsaw, cover most of the territory of Lithuania, reach the Latvian capital Riga, “cover” the Ukrainian cities of Rivne and Zhytomyr with an air defense cap.

Yes, it's not that simple. Long-range missiles 40N6E are not the main ones in the ammunition of the S-400 air defense system. In addition, it is highly doubtful that they defeat highly maneuverable high-speed targets such as a fighter, and even more so a stealth fighter, at such distances. But they were created a little differently - the main task of long-range anti-aircraft missiles is to defeat targets such as early warning aircraft (AWACS), electronic warfare (EW) aircraft, reconnaissance, transport aircraft and various types of bombers. And this is very valuable - in modern air warfare, it is extremely important to move as far as possible enemy AWACS aircraft, flying command posts, spotters and electronic warfare aircraft. In this case, the enemy strike aircraft becomes, if not completely blind and defenseless, then at least very vulnerable. Once in the zone of operation of the enemy's air defense and fighter aircraft, it is unlikely to be able to shoot his ground targets with impunity. Rather, she will have to engage in a maneuverable air battle at low altitude (otherwise air defense systems of all types will be removed from the skies by any, most modern, air attack weapons), and these are very unfavorable conditions for her.

Another consequence of the appearance of long-range anti-aircraft missile systems in the Republic of Belarus will be a double overlap by air defense means of the so-called Suwalki corridor, which connects the main NATO states with the Baltic states. On the one hand, this is done by the Russian air defense forces stationed in the Kaliningrad region. The addition of means of control and destruction, on the other hand, will naturally make it even more difficult for air attack means to operate in a war or threatened period.

The Kaliningrad region of Russia itself will be partially covered. And if so, Moscow's interest in this agreement is understandable and easy to explain. However, given the obstinacy of Lukashenko, who does not want to agree to any binding agreements with Moscow and obey it in military matters, Moscow's benefits do not seem so obvious. But, as they say, from the obstinate dad even wool shred...

Separately, it should be said about the supply of ZRPK "Pantsir-S" (surface-to-air and anti-tank missile system). It is no coincidence that these complexes are supposed to be delivered together. The fact is that formidable long-range air defense systems, such as the S-400, become very vulnerable in close combat. And it is their cover from attacks of cruise missiles, fighters, anti-radar missiles and other high-precision weapons that broke through the air defense barrier and is the main task of the near-zone air defense systems.

In addition, the Belarusian military has certainly analyzed the experience of the recent Karabakh conflict, where at the final stage the unmanned means of attack of Azerbaijan were able to completely defeat the air defense of Karabakh. Yes, they were an order of magnitude, if not more, weaker than the Belarusian ones. But the reason to think about strengthening the air defense of the near zone in Minsk, of course, appeared...

So far, without having specific numbers and details of the agreement, we can hardly say with certainty how beneficial it is for Moscow. Moreover, not everything can be measured by financial benefits... And nevertheless, even now we can say with confidence that Minsk and personally Lukashenka are very interested in it.

As for Russia, it is very likely that our supplies will again turn out to be almost free - there are already talks about the supply of equipment under this contract "from the presence of the RF Armed Forces", that is, the transfer of various types of air defense systems to the Belarusian military, which are on combat duty right now. after their repair and training Belarusian calculations. Probably, this will not be a critical loss for Russian air defense systems, and yet it becomes sad once again.

For many decades now, we have had no luck with solvent allies. And what to do with this is still completely unclear...