Posted 2 июля 2021, 15:31
Published 2 июля 2021, 15:31
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:37
Dmitry Milin, analyst
In general, I am rather pessimistic about the future of the Russian economy.
The economy cannot grow with stagnating expenditures of a shrinking population and stagnating primarily raw materials exports against the backdrop of capital flight from the country.
The absurd attempts of the authorities to increase investment, moreover, under the leadership of officials, are nothing but outright idiocy.
Investments are not money spent, but money that makes a profit. And in order for the money to start making a profit, we need people who know how to earn this profit. There is a problem with such people in Russia. Almost 20 years of strengthening of the state with an increase in the share of officials / security officials and the share of state property managed by irresponsible irremovable dilettantes-officials in the economy led to a total shortage of personnel who can work and earn money, and not steal or "cut" budget money.
Some of the economic problems are man-made in nature, such as the transition to escrow accounts in construction with uncalculated consequences for the industry, or too zealous fight against tax evaders, leading to rolling blocking of accounts in Russian banks and undermining confidence in the reliability of the banking system ...
Another part of the problems is connected with the administrative collapse in the state, struck by the dominance of the bureaucracy, mad from the lack of control, which imagines itself to be brilliant and omnipotent. And this is against the background of Putin, who has become a "lame duck", to which the bureaucracy and the "siloviki", busy with the solution of their own selfish problems, have ceased to pay any attention.
"Dancing with tambourines" around innovation and artificial intelligence will not lead to anything. People who are involved in this process have proven themselves only in “mastering budgets” without real results in previous projects such as the creation of “Silicon Valley at Skolkovo”, “International Financial Center in Moscow” or “New Industrialization”.
National projects will in no way affect the quality of life of people in Russia and the growth of the economy, and the money allocated for them will be successfully “sawed” and “used” by officials and their affiliated businesses.
Neither the authorities, nor the opposition, nor I have any strategy to save the country. And it cannot be in a situation when the population, corrupted by years of expensive oil, sees their country exclusively as a "cash cow", and only a marginal minority despised by the majority of the population can really work on development.
Personal coping strategies, on the other hand, may well be successful. For example, the Russian bureaucracy and the Russian security forces have already begun to carry out them in the form of robbery of the country and fellow citizens in the era of the “transit of power” that has already begun. The oligarchs also began to go into the cash with the withdrawal of money from the country away from the thieving Russian bureaucracy and the bandit security forces.
I think everyone needs to have a plan for what they will do when:
- a landslide devaluation.
- the collapse of the stock market.
- "bank holidays" with mass (or individual !!! that is, your personal accounts) blocking of accounts.
- forced currency conversion on bank accounts at an unfavorable rate
- the growth of street crime due to the extreme impoverishment of the population, which will not have enough money for food.
- participation in receiving humanitarian aid, because as the grandfather of one of my friends said, "famine in Russia always comes suddenly".
Be healthy. We all need health!