The third wave of coronavirus in Russia: who is scared on social networks, and who is not scared very much

Novye Izvestia found out what is the reason for it.

Yelena Ivanova, Natalia Seibil

The level of anxiety in society is on the rise. The FOM figures show that half of the fellow citizens observe anxious moods among their relatives and friends. And although the curve on the graph goes up, the fall-winter values have not yet been reached. In addition, researchers at the Center for Current Politics register a high level of negativity in discussions of coronavirus topics on social media. CPC expert Mikhail Karyagin says that positive comments on vaccination, the actions of the authorities and restrictions do not exceed 1%. All other opinions suggest that citizens are unhappy with the current situation.

- There is a fairly high level of aggression in society, we observed this from the dynamics of conflict discussions on vaccination. Someone anti-vaccine, someone for vaccination. From this, we conclude that it is quite alarming, and there is a negative component in the coronavirus agenda, says Mikhail Karyagin.

Fear is growing, and interest in the coronavirus is falling. At the beginning of the second wave, network users wrote up to 490 thousand messages a week that mentioned covid and coronavirus, six months later, even at the peak of interest, when, for example, Mayor Sobyanin announced the introduction of QR codes for visiting restaurants, a little more 160 thousand. This is due to the fact that in the first wave there was great uncertainty. People did not know what a covid was, and actively discussed all the news on the networks.

In the second wave, there were also many reports against the background of the rapid increase in the number of cases detected. A year later, citizens are getting used to the pandemic. The coronavirus is becoming the backdrop to life.

Academician of the Russian Academy of Education, Professor Alexander Asmolov is wary of conclusions that are made only on the basis of data from social networks. Networks, for all their importance, are not the main source by which scientists judge changes in attitudes in society. However, other methods do not make the picture of life more rosy. The phenomenon of "learned helplessness" is growing. It was described by psychologist Martin Seligman as a situation where most of the population is convinced that all their attempts to influence the situation are faced with a wall of indifference and misunderstanding. Alexander Asmolov recalls Mikhail Romm's old cinematic tale about Mary the Artisan: “What will, what bondage is all the same”. The reason for the silence on social networks is not that people are not interested in vaccinations or a pandemic, but because they have lost faith that someone can help them.

- The decrease in discussions in the networks is due to the fact that when you loudly shout for help, and your voice is not heard, involuntarily your voice becomes quieter and quieter. As the voice of one who is drowning, but understands in a situation of forced helplessness that there is no one to expect help. Thus, we are faced with a very difficult phenomenon in society, - Asmolov states.

The CPC experts also note that the actions of the authorities are perceived with denial. The main reason is that the vaccination campaign and the promotion of vaccines were carried out poorly, Mikhail Karyagin cautiously notes. This gave rise to rumors and myths, and the situation turned 180 degrees. At the beginning of the pandemic, people were waiting for vaccinations to appear and wanted to quickly return from a normal, dock-like life with their help.

Alexander Asmolov knows what the reason is - having lied once ... A wall of mistrust has built up between the authorities and society. Even the best intentions of the government are not understood by people, but what happens when they still turn out to be unrealizable. The effect of growing distrust becomes cascading. It grows and becomes like a fuse-cord, the scientist warns:

- Since we are slaves of pharmacological patriotism, the distrust because of this is growing even more. If we were told that you can have the right to choose the vaccines you believe in, then a different situation would arise. We have a situation of choice-free vaccination, while everyone knows that there are other vaccines that also raise huge questions in the world, but give an opportunity for choice and free movement.

Another favorite sport of the Russian government is bending the stick. After the introduction of mandatory vaccination for population groups and new restrictions in those regions where the governors "tried very hard", vaccination can not get off the ground.

- In the Belgorod region, one of the highest rates of vaccination, but no harsh punitive measures are used, on the contrary, positive practices are used to stimulate vaccination, - emphasizes Mikhail Karyagin .

Experts don't believe a pandemic or vaccination will have any effect on the upcoming elections this fall. Alexander Asmolov draws a parallel between the vaccine and the elections - as we have no alternative vaccination, so the elections are uncontested. However, the accumulated irritation is fraught with the authorities.

The researcher of unstable processes Ilya Prigogine teaches that even a small signal can change the entire trajectory of a system's evolution. Therefore, the example of the dismissal of the director of the Nizhny Novgorod school, Elena Moiseeva, is indicative, without the authorities indicating the reasons. One and a half thousand people from Nizhny Novgorod have already voted for it.

- In a situation of bifurcation, and we are in it, it is absolutely unknown where a spontaneous, unpredictable, unintended volcano will come from and where a massive ignition will begin, which will lead to irreversible consequences. That is why, absolutely adequately and fairly, our analysts understand that where it is thin, there it breaks. It's not about numbers. The general escalation of tension in the situation before the elections, including in those outbursts that the phenomenon of the Nizhny Novgorod teacher Elena Moiseeva described to us, all this leads to the fact that people straighten up and say to the repressive machine - No! - Ilya Prigozhin argues.

Maybe 1,500 people for Moscow are not that many. The capital remains a city where social media activity is much higher than in the country. This is due to the fact that Moscow still attracts the most active people due to the possibility of self-realization. But the incidence is also the highest here. Therefore, all restrictive measures are first introduced here, and then spread throughout the country.

Mikhail Karyagin is thinking of conducting a new study on how incentives and bans will affect the results of vaccinations, and how the toughest measures will affect the results of the vote.