The Ministry of Finance again adjusts taxes: who will have to pay more

Victoria Pavlova

The only exception that stands out from the picture of a systemic increase in taxes in Russia in recent years is a decrease in insurance premiums for employees with salaries above the minimum wage for small and medium-sized businesses from 30% to 15%, established as an antiquated support measure in April 2020. And that's all. And so the VAT was increased by 11%, personal income tax for wealthy people was raised to 15%, a tax on profits from deposits was introduced, for metallurgists the mineral extraction tax was increased by 3 times, a recycling fee for packaging was introduced... And now, while Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin promises to think about introducing a regime of a free customs territory and a tax-free zone in the Kuril Islands, the Ministry of Finance is preparing to continue "adjusting" the tax system, which should bring about 400 billion rubles a year. What can the increased fiscal burden lead to? Novye Izvestia, together with experts, was figuring out whether the ideas of the Ministry of Finance correspond to world trends and what consequences they are fraught with.

Even more extortions

So, this is what awaits the Russians in the near future. A tax on luxury real estate will be added: property with a total value of over 500 million rubles will be subject to a rate of 0.3% instead of the current 0.1%, and individual properties over 300 million rubles will go at a rate of 0.5%. This is another 50 billion rubles in the piggy bank. 90 billion rubles will have to bring an increased severance tax for oil workers. And most of all, the government hopes to receive 100 billion rubles from metallurgists through an increased severance tax. Dreams of "squeezing" the "squeezeers" come true. The use of the radio frequency spectrum will rise in price - mobile operators, television and radio companies, Russian Railways and others will pay for this.

It is not only Russian citizens who will pay for it. Foreigners will be obliged to pay a "digital tax" on income received from interacting with citizens of the Russian Federation and using data about them, personal income tax for Russian bloggers and for hired IT specialists at a remote location. In general, they will be equated to domestic companies that pay personal income tax for their employees.

And although it is too naive to hope that the business will simply take and swallow the additional burden (all the additional costs will still be included in the cost of the final product), people are most worried about the idea of increasing the payment of preferential contributions to the FIU. This can already directly affect the salaries of citizens. Now salaries up to 122 thousand rubles a month are taxed at a rate of 22%. Anything over and above - at a rate of 10%. This scheme was created to stimulate entrepreneurs to raise "white" wages. How high the new bar will be raised is not yet specified, but the Ministry of Finance expects an additional 16 billion rubles in 2022 and 45 billion rubles by 2024.

More is not more effective

With such requests from the Ministry of Finance, it is even inconvenient to call people "new oil" - the oilmen will think about ten more whether it is worth pumping out oil, whether the efforts will be justified ... But the Ministry of Finance is adamant - in the spring the department even issued a bulletin, which says how low taxes are in Russia: personal income tax is only from 13% to 15%, while in other countries it reaches 35%. Why the ministry kept silent about compulsory insurance contributions and other taxes. So the Accounts Chamber criticizes the proposals of the Ministry of Finance.

" A number of proposals related to the indexation of excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, sugar-containing products, in my opinion, will not give the effect that the Ministry of Finance expects, due to the high exhaustion of these measures to increase taxes, " said the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin .

That is, there is nowhere to increase the load - the same alcohol will then simply begin to be imported from the EAEU countries, where there are no such excise taxes. By the way, the USA and Mexico have already tried to introduce a tax on sugar and abandoned this idea due to low efficiency.

So our experts note that everything is not so simple and unambiguous with the tax burden. Economist, FBK partner Igor Nikolaev points out that it is generally incorrect to compare Russia with developed countries.

- I think that statements about a low tax burden in the Russian Federation from the Ministry of Finance are cunning. The Ministry of Finance makes an overall assessment of the level of the tax burden as a share of GDP, I remember the last figure he called - 34% or so, this roughly corresponds to what is in Western countries. What's wrong here? And the fact that it is incorrect to compare us with developed countries in terms of tax burden. A more convincing example in this regard is the progressive scale.

We know that there are countries where the rate is 45%, even up to 60%. Does this mean that now we can also enter up to 60 and everything will be fine? We are in a different state, our economies are different. When we become so highly developed, then it will be possible to say that our tax burden is not so high, there are countries where there are more, and therefore it will be possible to increase the tax burden.

And the authors of one of the largest economic telegram channels "Black Monday" note another feature - in Russia the tax burden is distributed extremely unevenly.

- The tax burden can be defined as very significant for individuals with low incomes and quite light for people with high incomes, as well as for businesses in some industries. Very small taxes for the self-employed and in special tax regimes such as special economic zones. In general, we can say that our tax burden is close to the global one.

But economist Nikita Krichevsky is confident that adjusting the tax system can help eliminate inequality. The main thing is to correctly place accents.

- The tax burden for individuals is low. The tax burden for oil workers is very large, for gas workers - a little less, for metallurgists - even less, for those who produce non-ferrous metals and gold, it is generally very small. Adjustment of the tax system will allow collecting more funds for the budget. In the country, half of the budget is generated by approximately 45-50 enterprises. And the second half is all the rest, including individuals. Is it fair to increase the tax burden on these 50 enterprises? In my opinion, yes. And especially when you consider that they all sit in offshore areas, with the exception of state-owned companies - all the more so.

We will pay more than in the "decaying" West

"Tuning" cannot be avoided - it is a fact. But what does world practice show us? In the United States, for example, in 2021, income tax rates increased by the size of inflation, but the standard tax deduction increased to $ 12,400 for an individual filing and up to $ 24,800 for a married couple. And yes, in the US you can even get a 37% rate, but for this you need to earn more than $ 518,400 per year. And people with incomes up to $ 9875 per year (about 60 thousand rubles per month) pay only 10%. In Russia, the overwhelming majority of people receive less than 60 thousand rubles (the median salary last year was 32,422 rubles), but all 13% pay. Joe Biden also plans to raise corporate tax from 21% to 28% after an unprecedented reduction in the burden by Donald Trump. But in the United States there is an end-to-end taxation system - you have to pay for the money that is withdrawn in the form of dividends. In Russia, you have to pay twice for the same money: first, the tax on the company's profits, and then personal income tax when withdrawing the same money after the distribution of dividends.

In Germany, too, the abolition of the antiquated reduced VAT (the base rate of 19% is returned and the preferential rate for food and books is 7% - lower than in Russia) is compensated by the abolition of the "solidarity tax" for single people with a salary of up to 6205 euros per month (for a family with 2 children and one busy adult, the bar rises to 12,843 euros per month). Even in Switzerland, the minimum personal income tax rate is lower than in Russia: with incomes up to 6,000 Swiss francs per month (480 thousand rubles), an effective rate of 12.2% is in effect in Geneva. VAT there, by the way, is 7.7%.

P latit have a lot even by world Mirko. Already in 2018, according to the annual study Paying Taxes 2020 from PwC, the tax burden in Russia was 46.2% of profits. For comparison: the world average is 40.5%. And in successful Finland - 36.6%, in no less successful Switzerland, where not only the banking, but also the technological sector is developed - 28.8%, in Ireland, which has made an economic breakthrough - 26.2%, in prosperous Canada - 24, five%. So it may be worth focusing on these countries, and not on Mexico, where the tax burden reaches 55.1%.

What will happen to the business? Will he obey and pay? Will it go into the shadows? Or will it begin to self-destruct at all speeds?

Nobody can hide from the Federal Tax Service. Everyone get ready to pay

Igor Nikolaev believes that the increase in load will not frighten off the business if it goes smoothly.

- The question of whether people and enterprises will go into the shadows in the event of an increase in taxes will depend on how much they, roughly speaking, become inflated. Now, if some kind of tin starts from the point of view of rates, then, of course, taxes will be avoided. If taxes increase by a little, by analogy with how they made a progressive rate of 15%, and then not from all the money, but only in the part that is above 5 million. Now, if this is a little bit, then, of course, avoiding taxes is more expensive for yourself. And if the bet is doubled, then the game is worth the candle, in the sense that entrepreneurs will hire lawyers and find ways to minimize these costs. Then they will leave. It all depends on what rates will be offered.

And the authors of " Black Monday " believe that modern technologies will not allow to go into the shadows. It makes sense: the cache in sports bags and shoe boxes is no longer so relevant.

- It seems that the technologies of the Federal Tax Service have reached the stage when it will be difficult to hide something. Especially if we are really talking about large enterprises and high salaries of employees, and not about microbusiness.

Nikita Krichevsky also points out that the old schemes to avoid taxes and hide profits are in the past - the tax authorities have found a way to squeeze the business. If not directly, then through weaker partners.

- Large companies will not go into the shadows when taxes are raised - now this is no longer possible. 10-15 years ago it was possible to steal VAT or cash in a bank. Now you cannot cash out for the reason that there will be a break in the chain, and the tax office will immediately make claims, and not to the company where the break occurred, but to the company that sent the money. Is it possible to go into the shadows? No, the system is automated. It does not matter whether it is a large enterprise or a small one - you will not go into the shadows, this is impossible. Everything changed a long time ago, 5-6 years ago, when an automated system was introduced. You can corrupt the tax authorities - well, theoretically, yes. But they are periodically caught, planted, and every year there are fewer of them.

It is clear that the authorities are not afraid of going into the shadows - they will get it everywhere. But what about the elections? It is absolutely impossible to scare people now. Any excitement will shatter the authorities' already uncertain ratings. But Igor Nikolaev believes that the authorities in the pre-election campaign can use the increase in taxes for their own benefit if they stake on increasing the burden on wealthy people. To take away and divide - people like that.

- The idea of taxing the wealth of the wealthy at a higher rate is influenced by the political factor. Duma elections are approaching, and the progressive scale of taxation enjoys the support of the majority of the population. So why not. In any case, elections definitely play a role in this initiative. I think that after them there will be something based on this idea. Chances are that taxes on the rich will be raised, here they will not win back. Moreover, there is not enough money. Need money. The state of the economy is characterized by high uncertainty against the background of the dire situation with the coronavirus that we currently have.

Black Monday also does not see a catastrophe on the eve of the elections, because the Ministry of Finance can tighten the screws gradually and not frighten people until September. But metallurgists will have to strain.

- So far, it is going to increase fees in certain industries such as metallurgy, which receives super profits from high world prices. You can also expect an increase in personal income tax for people with high earnings. Since 2020, an increased tax rate of 15% has been introduced for them instead of 13%. This purely symbolic premium, apparently, appeared as a first step, a precedent for the introduction of a progressive scale. The Federal Tax Service will work out control over incomes, show the effects, and then we will talk about serious growth, for example, up to 25%.

French recipes of the Ministry of Finance

Everything goes to the fact that the tax burden will increase gradually, but steadily. And people and business, like a frog in heated water, will not pay attention until they cook. And taking into account national characteristics and relations between big business and the government, it can be assumed that the people will pay for the increase in taxes. After all, for example, it never happens that when the excise tax rises, gasoline prices remain unchanged. In any case, they grow.

So we don't have any taxes on wealth - there are only taxes on the poor and the middle class. Introduced an additional load on minerals - metal structures and fertilizers have risen significantly. And 400 billion rubles a year is about 3,000 rubles a year from each person, including the elderly and children. Just like that. You can start procrastinating.