Posted 4 августа 2021,, 10:52
Published 4 августа 2021,, 10:52
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
The fact that Russia, despite all the Kremlin's broadcast statements, has been and will remain a raw material appendage of the world economy, is evidenced by the publication on the site "Made by Us", which tells about the new successes of domestic exports with pride for the country:
“Steel products are the second most important commodity group of Russian exports after fuel and one of the branches of international specialization in Russia. The industry's export orientation peaked in the mid-2000s; since then, domestic demand for its products has grown significantly, as a result of which historical highs for many types of basic products remained unattainable. However, the gradual increase in capacity has led to the fact that, since the mid-2010s. records began to be updated.
In 2020, the exports of the main groups of metallurgy products amounted to:
ores, concentrates, matte - $ 5.4 billion,
precious metals - $ 26.8 billion,
ferrous metals - $ 8.2 billion,
non-ferrous metals - $ 11.3 billion,
rolled steel and pipes - $ 8.4 billion,
rolled non-ferrous metals - $ 2.2 billion ... "
Commenting on these figures, economist Dmitry Ponomarev is horrified:
“... In addition to oil (238 million tons) and gas (over 230 billion cubic meters), last year, only 40 million tons of ferrous metals (including ore) were exported. And the total export of metals gave 60 billion dollars. Every year they export 100 million tons of coal, one million tons of copper alone, and so on. Precious metals alone were exported for about $ 27 billion - this is half of the export of some Ukraine. Palladium, Nickel, Aluminum, Titanium and so on. Everything is taken out. And almost everywhere - the mine is among the world leaders for each individual commodity.
Copper? In the top five. Oil? Second place. Gold? Second place in terms of production. Nickel? The second largest exporter after Canada.
And then there are mineral and chemical fertilizers (35 million tons for 8 billion dollars), timber, grain, fish (3 billion dollars only officially!) And so on.
Look at every resource district on the planet. Mono-exporters prevail everywhere. Saudi Arabia has nothing but oil and gas. Chile, except for copper - too. Australia or Brazil - a heap of iron ore and that's about it (the rest is just a trifle). Only Canada is more or less similar - oil, grain, fish, nickel, but even that is not a complete analogue.
And here everything is cleaned out. Most of the capital is also exported. The state apparatus is kept on the remnants (two-thirds of the expenses are the army and officials, the rest is pennies, and so on). And political scientists from Berdichev tell us about the confrontation of the raw materials appendage with someone there. And embroidered shirts are still saying that the West will break the goose that lays the golden eggs for the sake of these nonentities. But everything is arranged with the utmost efficiency.
It is from here that "working poverty", "no money", "working for a doshirak", an eternal crisis, an eternal rise in prices for everything and a dying consumer segment..."
Journalist Pavel Pryanikov adds "fire", predicting further events:
“The secret of the vitality of the current order in Russia is extremely simple - globalization and diversification of exports (if you describe everything cynically).
Everything related to export industries, unlike other aspects of life in Russia, is rapidly modernizing and adapting to the global market. It became necessary - quickly, literally in 5-7 years - to raise the export sector in agriculture, bringing sales to $ 30 billion.And potentially exports could be $ 50 and even $ 75 billion a year - with the expansion of arable land for cereals, sunflower, rapeseed ( for biodiesel for Europe), etc.
Last year we pressed down low oil prices - they began to export gold for the first time in a long time. It is necessary to export coal to Southeast Asia - the Trans-Siberian and BAM are expanding.
The export of oil will begin to decrease due to the energy transition - the Germans and the Japanese will make us a hydrogen economy in return. The demand for gas will begin to decline - the Chinese will build water pipelines from Siberian rivers, we will sell them fresh water for $ 30-40 billion a year.
And there is still export proceeds from the sale of carbon quotas to the West and to China, from young forests on the overgrown arable lands of the Non-Black Earth Region. And the development of deposits of rare earth metals (wrote recently about the Kuril projects).
Operators of the Uklad very correctly learned the lessons of both tsarism and Sovietism - it is necessary to globalize as much as possible and expand the range of raw materials exports. And always follow the trends of the world markets.
As you know, economics is the basis of politics. Everything will be fine in the export circuit, the current 100 thousand upper families can operate with the Style for another decade. There are no threats to them yet. And there are only three of these threats. The first is some kind of "black swan" like Chernobyl-1986. Well, here it is not given to anyone to predict and prepare. The second is not to get involved in a war. Even with rural Ukraine ("trade, not fight"). The third is to prevent a new "Gorbachev". Therefore, the Transit will go according to the Kazakh version, with Putin alive and under his patronage (probably already in 2024 or at least between 2024 and 2030).
And the threats are no longer visible. There is absolutely no counter-elite in the country. The West is satisfied with today's Russia. The borders for the release of steam (dissidents into emigration) are open. As for the ratings, I will repeat once again: Yeltsin ruled calmly with a rating of 2%, now Lukashenko - for sure his rating is no more than 5%".