Question of the day: will the rating of United Russia be raised by the payments to pensioners and the military?

As Novye Izvestia has already reported, Russian pensioners will be paid 10 thousand rubles a single time. Such an order was made by Putin, stressing that an increase in pension in the amount of a thousand rubles is not enough: this money is burned up in inflation.

“I said about an average inflation rate of 6.5 percent yoy. But for the elderly, it is, perhaps, also larger. Why - because their consumption structure is different, ”Putin said, asking United Russia to“ react in a certain way ”and“ make a one-time payment of 10 thousand rubles ”when forming a faction in the Duma. The payment should apply to all categories of pensioners: both working and non-working, and military pensioners who receive pensions from the relevant departments (Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Emergency Situations). In addition, Putin announced one-time payments to servicemen - 15 thousand rubles each.

Experts have calculated that a one-time payment to pensioners will cost the budget 400 billion rubles.

Another important fact is noteworthy: over the past year, as a result of the pension reform, pensioners have decreased by 2 million, that is, a record value in the entire history of available statistics, covering the period since 1998. Since the beginning of the 2010s, there has been a continuous trend towards an increase in the number of pension recipients in the country. The authorities responded to this with a pension reform, and now the situation has been corrected by the covid. From a peak of 43.865 million people as of January 1, 2019, the number of retirees decreased by 1.51 million in 10 quarters. With an average pension of 15,977 rubles, this reduced the expenses of the Pension Fund by 230 billion rubles a year. According to other estimates, the budget saved the very same 400 billion rubles on reducing the number of pensioners!

It is also interesting that Putin instructed to deal with payments to pensioners AFTER the vote...

Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov was skeptical about this measure, which he rightly considers to be the presidential election technology:

“It is assumed that such a run will create a furor in the election race, nullifying the efforts of all other parties to set their own agenda.

Of course, the promised gold piece is better than his absence, but he will hardly be able to help the rating of the ruling party. Firstly, the amount is not so large (this is, to put it mildly), to directly reverse all the negativity towards the authorities that has accumulated in an angry and hungry voter.

Secondly, people are not inclined to associate negativity to the authorities in general and to the president in particular (as we see from various ratings, where there are Putin's Teflon numbers, and there are diving government figures), which means that they will perceive the president's help approximately also.

Thirdly, the money will be distributed now, and the elections will be held only on September 19, when all the money has already been spent and forgotten. Then people, on the contrary, will feel that the money is sorely lacking and "in fact, they could have given more." Alas, all technologies related to the distribution of funds, from official government ones to the prohibited by law "bribery of voters" work equally poorly if they do not mobilize the voter to vote at the polling station.

Another disadvantage of such generosity is that Putin actually links his rating with United Russia. At the same time, the overflow of his votes to United Russia, as to "Putin's party" is very difficult. After all, almost all systemic oppositionists who, to one degree or another, would only like to correct his system, and not oppose it, consider themselves to be “Putinists”. In this sense, Putin renounces the image of a “non-partisan president” and associates his name with one political force, which may ultimately lead to the final identification of a good tsar with bad boyars. It is not for nothing that the Communist Party believes that the elections to the State Duma-2021 will become an informal referendum on confidence in President Putin.

It is possible that this desperate gesture on the part of the president was dictated, among other things, by preparations for the transfer of power after 2024. If Putin has decided that he will not run for a new term, then the rating is not so important to him, which means that it can be used to support the political system at the transit stage..."

Scientist and public figure Vera Afanasyeva is also not happy with this measure:

“Members of the ruling party greeted with applause the offer of their leader to distribute 10 thousand rubles to pensioners who had been robbed by them. That's about the same as they spend on a light meal in a restaurant.

And the military will be given 15 thousand each. But why only the military? Why not bus drivers? Not the cashiers at Pyaterochka? Not the sixty they left without a pension for five years?"

Network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan directly calls this money a "handout":

“Feeding is also part of the ritual. Money is sparse these days. Therefore, it is necessary to limit the number of those who this time will be thrown from the master's shoulder. The setting - you understand. Outside - enemies, inside - foreign agents. And because - we can. Heartily…"

Journalist Kirill Shulika, on the contrary, is sure that this measure will add votes to the party in power:

“Strictly speaking, there is no bribery of voters in the promise of 10,000 to pensioners, and no 15,000 to the military. These are payments at the end of the year, that is, not before the elections.

Everything is more cunning here... Like "United Russia" must go to the Duma, form a majority, pass laws, and only then will you have money.

This will add more votes. I will not say that there are many, but it will definitely make the loyal electorate go to the polls. United Russia relies on the poor. For them, 10 thousand is very good money. And for the military, 15 thousand too... Moreover, this is an average of 15 thousand, someone will receive more.

Another question arises. Why should the authorities and personally United Russia fight poverty? Poverty in the country is its main political capital..."

And political scientist Konstantin Kalachev noted that 10 thousand rubles is significant money for a Russian pensioner:

“Someone will rightly point out that this is not so much. But I look at such things through the eyes of a retired mother. Mom gives each of our children 30 thousand rubles for every birthday. Plus gifts. Papa's general's pension was accumulating while he was lying for 11 years after a stroke. She herself has a pension one and a half times less than what she gives to children. And then there is a reason to spend 10 thousand from the president on yourself. Although she promised that she would not go to the polls anymore, it could melt her heart. So, criticizing and ironing, remember sometimes that grandmothers see many things differently. And we are grateful for literally everything..."

And political scientist Abbas Gallyamov proposed a very original version:

“The experience of fighting pre-election handouts has long been described in the textbook of political technologies by Malkin and Suchkov:“ Take it, dear citizens, do not hesitate! It's all yours! It has been stolen from you! Take it, just don't try to vote for these swindlers. Let them not think that they could buy you for this handout. " I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the quote, but the meaning is clear. And yes, it works..."