Erdogan will get his atomic bomb if the US and Russia allow him

Gennady Charodeyev

Let us remind you that Turkey joined the International Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1980, and in 1996 - to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. However, the country provides its territory for the storage of American nuclear arsenals. By the way, it was their appearance near the side of the USSR in 1961 that marked the beginning of the Cuban missile crisis, which almost led to a nuclear war between Moscow and Washington.

According to Israeli political scientist Yakov Kedmi, Ankara's possession of a nuclear arsenal is only a matter of time. It is not for nothing that former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once told Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou that, according to information received from Israeli special services, Turkey already has the potential to become a nuclear power.

Nevertheless, many experts in the West believe that in the medium term, closer to 2050, Ankara may well get its own first-generation nuclear weapons systems.

An article published in the Greek newspaper Apopseis, which, incidentally, was reprinted by many Turkish publications, draws attention to the fact that the Greeks did not forget the statement made by Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the 74th session of the UN General Assembly in New York: the President of Turkey called on or completely to prohibit or make available nuclear weapons for all countries. Erdogan hinted that he wants the same protection for Turkey as Israel's. “We have a Jewish state nearby, almost neighbors. They are frightening with nuclear weapons. Nobody can touch Israel, ”- the Turkish leader.

At the economic forum in the city of Sivas in Central Anatolia, President Erdogan stressed that "he considers it unacceptable that Turkey cannot have nuclear weapons." Thus, Apopseis concluded, Erdogan openly hinted that work in this direction is already underway.

Under other circumstances, Ankara would be punished demonstratively simply for raising such questions in public. But Erdogan has already found out experimentally what Washington and Brussels will tolerate. The Americans do not want the "collapse of NATO's southeastern flank" to happen, and Brussels - because the Turkish leader is in possession of the political equivalent of nuclear weapons, namely, millions of Middle Eastern refugees, in front of whom he can open wide the "gates to the European Union".

"Turkey over the past decade has been investing heavily in technologies for the production of long-range missiles. Such activity cannot but cause alarm, especially against the background of the fact that Ankara, with the help of military and economic levers, is increasing its influence on neighboring states and on the Middle East region as a whole", - political analyst Alexander Khramchikhin told Novye Izvestia.

Russia is also concerned about reports that the Turkish president allegedly personally asked the Pakistani military to provide technologies for the production of nuclear weapons, and received a positive response to this.

Moreover, according to Yakov Kedmi, not so long ago the leaders of Pakistan's nuclear military program concluded an agreement with Turkey.

We must not forget about Turkey's historical ties with Pakistan, as well as the proximity of the two countries as Muslim Sunni powers. Ankara and Islamabad aim to increase trade to $ 5 billion by 2023.

Another prerequisite for a nuclear program is a ballistic missile program that will carry nuclear warheads. Experts say that missiles with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers are currently being developed in Turkey.

Another problem is the "space program" announced by Turkey. Within the framework of these studies, ballistic missiles with a range of up to 3.5 thousand kilometers and more can be developed. At the same time, these missiles can be developed as carriers of nuclear warheads.

In Turkey itself, they do not comment on the situation. At the same time, official Ankara did not confirm contacts with the Pakistani Defense Ministry regarding the transfer of nuclear technologies. They understand that if such a transfer takes place, then both Turkey and Pakistan may come under sanctions from the UN Security Council for activities that undermine the memorandum on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

The Greek media has drawn attention to the construction of nuclear power reactors, which is considered the first necessary step in the creation of tactical nuclear weapons, and since 2015, dozens of Turkish engineers have been studying nuclear engineering in Russian universities.

Experts call Ankara's nuclear ambitions a bluff, if only because the first Turkish nuclear power plant "Akkuyu" is being built by specialists from Russia. The Turkish nuclear power plant will operate on Russian nuclear fuel, with the spent fuel under the contract must be exported to Russia for its subsequent processing and disposal.

The Turks will be able to operate their nuclear power plant, but will not have access to fissile materials. Not to mention that the signed treaties represent a serious obstacle on Erdogan's path to nuclear greatness.

“Still, we shouldn't forget that today Turkey is a fairly industrialized country with a fairly high level of technological development", - Vladimir Batyuk, Chief Researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, reminded in conversation with Novye Izvestia. - And if such countries as North Korea have already acquired atomic bombs, Turkey, apparently, can also do it. Another thing is that nuclear ambitions can lead Ankara to a serious conflict with NATO member states. Surely, relations with Russia, China and other nuclear powers that adhere to the principle of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons will become more complicated.

As you know, Turkey is building a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu. The question arises: Will there be an opportunity for Turkey to turn nuclear fuel into missile charges?

Vladimir Batyuk explained: charges for nuclear weapons are obtained either from uranium or from plutonium. And they need to be enriched - that is, to increase their concentration. This requires centrifuges and special concentrators. Civil nuclear power plants are completely different. Nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants, in principle, is not suitable for the creation of nuclear weapons. These are two different things. There is also a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. But Kiev failed to make an atomic bomb, - said the expert.

“I have no doubt that Erdogan is very interested in his atomic bomb”, - political analyst Alexander Khramchikhin told Novye Izvestia. - Probably Pakistan and even China could sell their nuclear technologies to the Turks. For example, I suspect that Chinese-made medium-range missiles were sold to Saudi Arabia, along with nuclear warheads. But Erdogan wants to establish his own production. And this, apparently, he will be able to do.

Meanwhile, many defense experts believe that Erdogan will ultimately be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, which would pose an even greater threat to global security than North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.