Posted 30 августа 2021, 20:54
Published 30 августа 2021, 20:54
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
The destruction of the “Crimean consensus” after 2015-16 dramatically changed the attitude of Russian society to the future. The demand for authoritarianism and conservatism was gone by 2018, and it was replaced by the demand for democratization and sociality (redistribution). This is shown by a study by Vladimir Petukhov, an employee of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences ("Sociological Science and Social Practice"). The Interpreter (Tolkovatel) blog quotes some important findings from his work:
“When it comes not to the past, but to the future of Russia, it becomes obvious that the Soviet project is irrelevant for many Russians, as well as the radically liberal and authoritarian-personalist one. The country has already passed these "stops" and its future should be built on a different ideological foundation. The results of this study show that this foundation should be based on the triad of ideas of justice, democracy and statehood.
Moreover, the proportion of Russians who believe that the ideas of social justice and democracy should become key value orientations for the Russia of the future have grown from 2014 to 2018. from 47 to 59% and from 27 to 37%, respectively. Among young people aged 18-24, the share of respondents who associate their desired image of the future of Russia with the democratic organization of society and freedom of personal expression approached 50%.
It seems that this is primarily due to the fact that the economic crisis and the depression that replaced it has accelerated the awareness of many Russians, including young people, that there is no “caring state” in Russia and is not expected in the near future. This, in turn, led to the destruction of the paternalistic consensus of the 2000s between the authorities and society (loyalty in exchange for some social guarantees) and actualized the demand for change. One of the aspects of this request is the desire of Russians to return the lost leverage over the government in order to induce it, if not to take care of its citizens, then at least to carry out its powers normally. Moreover, many Russians, especially young people, are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of uncontrolled authoritarian methods of management, the so-called “strong hand,” supposedly capable of bringing order to the country.
The third component of the consensus triad “greatness of the state” after the euphoria of 2014, although it continues to enjoy the support of almost a third of Russians, has not gained new supporters. But the idea of "returning Russia to national traditions, moral and religious values, time-tested" has lost a significant part of its adherents. During the period under review, their number decreased from 35 to 26%; in the age cohort of 18-24, it finds support only in 13% of the respondents. Only supporters of the openly nationalist slogan “Russia is primarily for the Russians” (11%) have less.
As for right-wing liberal ideas (a free market with minimal government interference in the economy and rapprochement with the West), they are still not very popular in Russian society, with the exception of the younger age group, in which the number of supporters of rapprochement with the West and entry into the "common European home "Almost doubled in four years - from 14 to 29%".