Posted 8 сентября 2021,, 06:54
Published 8 сентября 2021,, 06:54
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38
According to the latest polls, already more than half of Russians dream of changing from conventional cars to electric ones, and, for example, already in 2035 all of Europe will drive electric cars. Is Russia ready for this? Or at least Moscow? Autoexpert Peter Shkumatov asked in his blog the question: will the power system of Moscow withstand the total replacement of all cars from internal combustion engines with electric vehicles?
“In order to understand this, let's first calculate the average mileage in Moscow based on the volume of gas engine fuel sales. I will count roughly and roundly, this is not a scientific work.
In Moscow, fuel is sold annually for ~ 200 billion rubles + -. Divide by 50r / l (it's easier to divide this way) and we get that this is 4 billion liters or 40 billion kilometers at a consumption of 10 liters. There are 5 million cars in Moscow, hence the average annual mileage per 1 car is 4/5 = 8000 km per year.
This calculation carries a large error, since those who refuel in the Moscow region are not taken into account, those who buy left-handed fuel without excise taxes are not taken into account, in general there are many nuances. But the difference cannot be 2 times. Even if you look at the Moscow region, fuel is sold there annually for ~ 250 billion rubles + -, and there are fewer cars (3 million). That is, the mileage in the region is 2 times more than in Moscow, which is logical.
Now about electric cars. For simplicity of calculation, let's take an annual mileage of 10 thousand km, which is 27 km per day. 0.15 kW * h per kilometer, therefore, the electricity consumption will be 4 kW * h for such a mileage. Four kilowatts per hour (6 rubles at night rate)
In total, 5 million electric vehicles in Moscow will consume 4 * 5 million = 20 million kWh daily. We look at the statistics of generation, on the territory of Moscow and the region (the unified energy system, cannot be counted separately) in 2021 they generate ~ 9.3 billion kWh per month, and 300 million kWh per day, respectively. Thus, if the entire fleet of cars with internal combustion engines is simply magically replaced by electric trains, then the load on the power system from Moscow electric vehicles will increase by only 7%. If all residents of the Moscow region switch to electric, then this will give another 7% (less cars - more mileage). +7 (or +14) percent for the energy sector is sheer nonsense, especially since consumption has been falling for a long time and surpluses have appeared. Yes, and from air conditioners in the heat and from radiators in the cold, there is much more load surges than from this.
So our energy system will not only withstand the sudden appearance of 5 million electric vehicles, but it will not even notice them very much.
But! This is about generation. The biggest challenge in charging electric vehicles is the last mile. There is definitely a problem there (in short, only not everyone will be able to charge the train, and the inhabitants of human ant-hills generally fly by like plywood, they have only public transport and taxis on holidays)..."
Analyst Vadim Demchenko agreed with these calculations, noting that the transition to electric vehicles would be very difficult for Moscow:
- Yes, one should look not at the change in generation when an ETS appears, but at the cost of the "last mile" of charging. Mobile generators, IMHO, a bad decision, and I think no one considered the costs of arranging stationary charging points.
- I would have calculated the whole history of the ETS - from production to disposal - in great detail before plunging into it with my head. I think that there are still a lot of cockroaches hiding there. And I would definitely calculate with predictive extrapolation and with alternative options. So far, this is all very similar to the pruritus of court businessmen.
- And, as always, we jump into a new life without even trying to work out the rules. And there is a little more than a dofiga obtained innovations and unregulated lacunae.