Tour operators predict the outflow of tourists from Russian resorts after the pandemic

The tourism industry has changed a lot during the pandemic, he said. Due to the forced cancellations of tours, tour operators have deteriorated relations with a number of their clients. Investing in the promotion of this or that direction during the crisis also turned out to be a futile idea - not today tomorrow these directions will be closed, the tourist flow will be reoriented to other resorts.

Finally, hotels, taking this opportunity, have significantly increased their prices for accommodation in them. Prices for vacations in high-end hotels and country houses have increased by 50-100%, and sometimes even more, compared to 2019, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia reports, citing Romashkin's speech.

The expected growth in domestic tourist traffic during the crisis was justified only in the "beach" directions, Romashkin emphasized. If earlier this direction accounted for up to 50% of sales, the rest was for excursion tourism, then during the pandemic, the demand for beach holidays in Russia increased to 80% of the total number of tours sold. "That is, excursion tourism in Russia, alas, did not receive any new opportunities in the form of an increase in tourist flow, all the growth went exclusively to the coastal beach regions," the head of the travel agency added.

With the opening of borders, the expert predicts a drop in domestic tourism by 20-25%. This is connected not so much with the deferred demand for trips abroad, as with the fatigue of Russian tourists, who have replaced foreign tours with local ones, from such a forced replacement. "Therefore, Russian beach resorts should wait for an inevitable drop in tourist traffic after the resumption of mass outbound tourism", - Romashkin predicts.

According to him, after the opening of most foreign destinations, the situation with tourist flow will be similar to 2017, when after the closure of Turkey in 2016 there was a huge wave of demand in outbound tourism and at the same time a decline in tourist flow in domestic directions. Then the decline in the south of Russia was at least 20-25% yoy. However, then, the expert emphasizes, only Turkey and Egypt were closed.

Now, according to Romashkina, the audience of several massive foreign destinations, which are not yet available to Russians, is resting in the south of Russia. In particular, we are talking about the countries of South-East Asia and Tunisia. When these destinations open, the expected decline in tourist traffic in the domestic market will be even more significant than the decline in 2017, the expert predicts.

To retain tourists, Russian hotels will have to cut prices. Now the prices for vacations on the domestic market are "inadequately overheated", the expert said. According to him, a decrease in the cost of living in resort hotels is inevitable. "The winner is the one who understands this trend and lowers prices before the first low post-pandemic season begins", - he concluded.