Not poppy, but saffron: what product will help restore the economy of Afghanistan

Professor of the Department of World Economy at the PRUE G.V. Plekhanova Svetlana Ivanova decided to find out how Afghanistan will live after the victory of the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).

What resources does the country have after the Americans leave it? Of course, the development of the economy should be talked about only under the condition of political stability throughout the country, the cessation of the civil military conflict. Time will tell whether the winners, overcoming many inter-tribal and religious differences, will be able to create a normal coalition government, but without this it is impossible to talk about prospects. In addition, having left the country physically, the Americans will continue to use "soft power" and control Afghanistan financially, and this influence is likely to only grow.

In the meantime, the situation is as follows: Afghanistan is characterized by a stable negative trade balance, and this affects the stability of the local currency - Afghani.

In 2020, the excess of imports over exports amounted to $ 5.7 billion. In the export of goods, 66% accounted for agricultural products; in imports - 35%. The main trading partners, obviously, will remain: China, Pakistan, India, Iran, the United Arab Emirates.

Today, the country's economy bears the features of a traditional agrarian society with a high proportion of crime and low GDP per capita, the expert writes.

In 2020, the share of agriculture was 24% of the country's GDP. And the presence and assistance of the Americans affected the development of the service sector - transport and communications.

The problems for the 37 million Afghans were created mainly by backward agricultural technologies, an arid climate and mountainous terrain. The main task now is, firstly, the issue of land use, and secondly, the issue of displacing opium poppy crops from the structure in order to create a real agro-industrial complex.

True, even today the country has a legal export position, according to which it can successfully compete in the world market. And this is not poppy, but a "golden" spice - saffron, the demand for which, according to experts, will double by 2027! Indeed, as a raw material, saffron flowers are used not only in the food industry, but also in medicine (immunomodulator, anti-cancer properties), and in the cosmetic industry. Here is how retail prices are distributed by country for 1 gram of dried saffron thread (stigma).

Prices for saffron thread (negin variety), 2019 (per 1 gram / euro)

1. Persia (Iran) 1.0-1.2
2. India 2.6-4.0
3. USA 7.0-9.3
4. Europe (Spain, Italy, Germany) 7.0-9.0
5. UK 7.0-10.0

The range, therefore, is from 1 to 10 euros / gram, and the wholesale price ranges from 1000-4000 dollars per 1 kg.

Afghanistan today is one of the three leaders in the production of saffron in the world, its share is about 6%. To develop this industry, it will be necessary to create cooperatives of peasant families, form sustainable value chains and advance peasant labor. Taking into account the economic benefits, solving the very urgent problem of unemployment (especially among women and youth) and overcoming drug addiction, the cultivation of saffron may become an important export position of this country in the near future.

By the way, the development of this production will help to solve the very problem of the negative trade balance, - the expert concludes.