Posted 30 сентября 2021,, 15:33

Published 30 сентября 2021,, 15:33

Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36

Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36

Natalya Zubarevich: "The Pension Fund has benefited greatly due to the coronavirus pandemic"

Natalya Zubarevich: "The Pension Fund has benefited greatly due to the coronavirus pandemic"

30 сентября 2021, 15:33
Natalya Zubarevich, Professor of the Department of Economic and Social Geography of the Geographical Faculty of Moscow State University, on the air of the YouTube channel "Russkiye Norm!" told about the development of Russia in the next five years.

“I can’t count, and no one can count, “black swans”.

If we live within the framework of an inertial scenario, then this is a classic stagnation with tightened screws, with the continuing emigration of the country, both economic - not in terms of money, but in terms of the atmosphere, and political, that is, with pushing out. With the continuation of the flow to large cities. These are irreplaceable mechanisms of development.

With a no longer growing state budget sector, because there is nowhere else to go.

And with a very interesting process. So, you know what will be the driver of the changes? I absolutely don’t understand what kind of... Shrinking the bubble of an energy superpower.

European tax. Technological restructuring, which has already begun, for example, metallurgists.

The private trader understands the risks better than anyone. Especially smart metallurgical private trader. We have such, although this is not all. And they are already starting to work, investing in a strong modernization of production in order to reduce emissions and pay less, because they have a bunch of distribution centers in Europe.

We are going through this contraction in our earnings sometime in 2023, and it will continue into the 2030s. It's about rent. The rent will shrink.

The system has shown that it knows how to live with compressed rent.

Budget optimization may be repeated.

Do not forget that until 2028 we are sitting in a period of minimal entry into the labor market of young working-age people, the "waist" - the birth in the 1990s - they enter the market, and the massive exodus from the labor market of the post-war baby boom generation.

But what's the trick? It is necessary to detain. This is how we are great at solving a double task: helping the pension fund and keeping them on the labor market.

Regardless of whether these people, some of them, are capable of upgrading their qualifications, and so on, you sit and work.

I think that in the second half of the 2020s, this question (according to the leading YouTube channel Elizaveta Osetinskaya, this is the question of "extending the retirement age" - note by the editor) will arise by force. He will get up.

There is only one exception: if life expectancy does not rise. She has grown very well with us: from 66 to 73 years old, on average, both sexes. What a burden on the pension fund!

Now life expectancy has crashed back into the covid period, up to 71 years. If it sticks around at this level, you can not quickly build up. The Pension Fund is already feeling better.

Covid and the Pension Fund are some kind of an "alliance". Forced, but... It's a black humor, well, I'm sorry. Black humor".

You can watch the entire interview with Natalia Zubarevich here.