Resource bonus: Russians' natural rent is 30 times less than in Qatar

Political analyst Dmitry Nekrasov calculated the amount of natural resource rent in the whole world and in individual countries with the greatest natural resources. For Russia, these figures turned out to be not very comforting, once again confirming that it makes no sense to rely on oil and gas for our country to flourish.

1. The scale of the world's natural resource rent

Once, Ricardo defined rent something like this: if two owners invest the same amount of labor in plots of land of the same size, but one gets a larger harvest simply because his plot is more fertile, then the difference between harvests is rent.

In modern conditions, speaking of natural rent, it makes sense to apply the following approach: rent = market price - production cost - investment depreciation - normal return on invested capital. Where under "normal" is meant the average profit for the economy for projects of this level of risk.

In efficiently arranged tax systems, all natural rent is taken by the state, somewhere part of it is appropriated by business, in very exotic systems, part of the rent is shared with the population, for example, by selling them cheap gasoline.

Now let's go over the amount of rent in the markets for various natural resources. (All calculations below are very approximate. However, the error of the given figures is unlikely to exceed plus or minus 20%).

Oil

Take dock 2019. With an average annual oil price of roughly $ 65 and world production roughly around 100 million barrels per day, the world price of all crude oil produced at market prices was a very rough $ 2.4 trillion. (The reality, of course, is a little different, a lot of oil is sold at lower prices on local markets and in net money the proceeds will probably be less than 2.4 trillion, but less than 2 trillion, however, if oil / gasoline is cheap in some countries, then these countries use their oil rent in this way.).

At the same time, the production cost varies greatly from $ 5 to $ 70. If we take the average cost (taking into account investments and normal profit) roughly $ 25-30, then we will reach the volume of rent in world oil production at $ 1.3-1.5 trillion per year. In 2011-2013, oil provided all 3 trillion in rent. At the same time, most of this rent is concentrated in countries with low production costs such as the monarchies of the Gulf.

Non-ferrous metals

Even at the current strongly increased prices, aluminum is produced in the world for about $ 200 billion a year (65 million for 3 thousand). If for ten years, then less than 150 billion. And copper for the current about the same 200 billion (20 million per 10 thousand). Everywhere I multiply the world production of primary metal by its price, it is clear that the amount in products is greater, but in oil products the amount is also greater. In these metals, rents vary greatly depending on the deposit or the availability of cheap hydro resources, but I would be surprised if the long-term rents in the industry are much higher than the 10-20% range of revenues. Any nickel, titanium, tungsten, zinc can be more marginal, but there the absolute volume of the world market is noticeably smaller.

In general, in our half-ceiling calculation, we can say with a margin that if we determine the revenue for all non-ferrous metals at 500-750 billion, and the rent at $ 100-200 billion per year for a long-term (for example, on a 10-year horizon), then we would rather overestimate it rather than underestimate it.

Precious metals

Gold, oddly enough, is also mined in the world for about $ 200 billion a year at current prices (3200 tons x 1700 X 35000 ounces per ton). Silver with platinum is collectively working at a cost of $ 30 billion a year. Here the rent is obviously higher as a percentage. In absolute numbers, we can reach the level of 50-100 billion per year in total. (Intuitively, the numbers for precious metals cause me the most questions. If anyone sees an error, tell me. But I seem to have double-checked it three times).

Black metals

It is difficult to count the ores, therefore we will make a small backup with coal. The steel produced in the world in a year with great stretch at exchange prices is worth 1 trillion (1.85 billion tons at 550 good current prices). Pig iron another 150 billion. There is almost no rent here (once again, we deduct the depreciation of investments and the normal cost of capital from the rent). On average, this is a fairly highly competitive uncomplicated market, where there are periods of prices at the cost limit. Some players don't even pay off the investment. So the rent is 0-200 billion and the reality is rather closer to the lower border.

Rare earth metals - revenue is less than 5 billion. Nothing at all.

Gems

Some mere pennies. The diamonds mined per year, including industrial diamonds (obviously, I count before processing, processing has nothing to do with rent) less than 5 billion. Everything else is even less. For insignificance, I did not even begin to understand in detail. I admit that their production is high-margin, but even if in all the precious stones in the aggregate (before processing) there is a rent of 5 billion per year, I will be very surprised. This is the maximum score.

Coal

Coal is mined in the world as much as 8 billion tons (I underestimated). But here it is very poorly clear at what prices to calculate the proceeds, because the prices vary several times from the market and the quality of coal. Sometimes transportation to the "expensive" market is tens of percent of the cost. If we take as the average range 120-180 USD / t, then the global revenue from the sale of coal will be in the range of 1-1.5 trillion dollars. The assessment of rent is even more difficult, because many mines around the world are still subsidized, i.e. there the rent is negative, in the Russian Federation, for example, the tariff is subsidized. Therefore, with all the assumptions, we will take the range of rent for coal from 0-200 billion. We will definitely fall into it.

Gas

It is meaningless to count at current prices, but if we conditionally take $ 350 per thousand cubic meters, (which is a strong overestimation on average over a ten-year period around the world), then we get about $ 700 billion a year. If we count, like oil, at the prices of the dock 2019, then it will turn out to be less than 350 billion at all. Whatever one may say, in a ten-year interval, I would be very surprised if the annual gas rent in the world is more than 100 billion per year. Well, let's give a margin of 50-150 billion annuities per year for the current insane prices.

In agriculture, the main exporters are developed countries that subsidize agriculture, so the rent there is rather negative. A significant part of various kinds of fertilizers are included in the gas (we already doubled up on coal). I will not count all the rest of the nonsense, like building materials, wood and other things like that. And the revenue is more modest, and there is very little super-profit (rent).

Thus, even if we add up the maximum estimates of the rent from all natural resources except oil, they in total will be half the most modest estimates of the oil rent. If one does not reinsure himself in estimates, then I would generally say that over the past 10 years, oil rent has accounted for 75-85% of all natural rent worldwide, and the rest of natural resources in aggregate provided 15-25% of rent.

Let's check this thesis from the point of view of Russian statistics. The draft budget for 2020 (made in the dock-like 2019 from those realities) provided for the following volume of taxes on mineral extraction: oil 5.2 trillion, gas + gas condensate 0.8 trillion, the rest 0.06 trillion. Those. oil 86% other hydrocarbons 13% all other natural resources - with difficulty 1% of direct government revenues from natural resources.

It is clear that the rent is partially withdrawn through income tax and so on, but the oil industry also pays income tax, as well as excise tax, and even export duties on oil and oil products, which until recently amounted to trillions. And even all the advertised increases in severance tax for metallurgists in the coming years are drawn by about 2% of the oil severance tax.

For all the controversy of the word “rent”, it is clear that from all natural rent received in various ways in the budget of the Russian Federation, rent from oil itself, depending on world prices, amounts to 80-90% of all natural rent. The rest of the natural resources against this background are extremely insignificant.

2. Which countries are really rich in resources

From the considerations above, it follows that when assessing the country's wealth in natural resources in terms of rent, any resources other than oil can simply be neglected for their insignificance.

Another important factor in the assessment is the population of the country into which the rent is divided. After all, for example, China is one of the five largest oil producing countries, but per capita it turns out somehow not very well.

Below I will give the volume of rents from the oil produced for some countries. Prices and production rates are taken for 2019. In countries such as Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, KSA (Saudi Arabia), where there are many guest workers, only citizens will be included in the population for the calculation, since guest workers are not the beneficiaries of rent. Different countries will use different average production costs. Potential rent will be considered as a whole, regardless of how effectively it is withdrawn by the state. I will also cite oil reserves per citizen, although this indicator is much less informative, because the heavy oil of Venezuela or the Arctic fields of the Russian Federation are very expensive to develop and, in comparison, for example, with the reserves of the Gulf countries, contain many times less potential rent.

The formula used below is simple: daily production in million barrels x 365 x approximate rent (price minus estimated cost) per barrel 2019 / citizens in million We reduce millions.

Qatar 0.6 x 365 x 60 / 0.3 = $ 43,800 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 85,000 barrels per citizen.

UAE 3x365x60 / 1.5 = also $ 43,800 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 66,000 barrels per citizen.

Kuwait 2.7 x 365 x 60 / 1.5 = $ 39,420 annuity per citizen in 2019. Reserves 68,000 barrels per citizen.

KSA 10.3х365х60 / 25 = $ 9,000 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 10,700 barrels per citizen.

Norway 1.4 x 365 x 40/5 = $ 4,088 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 1000 barrels per citizen.

Kazakhstan 1.55х365х50 / 19 = $ 1,488 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 1,570 barrels per citizen.

Azerbaijan 0.7х365х50 / 10 = $ 1,277 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 700 barrels per citizen.

Russia 10.5X365X50 / 150 = $ 1,277 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 533 bbl per citizen.

Iran 2.4 x 365 x 55/84 = $ 573 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves are 1,870 barrels per citizen. (These figures directly surprised me, but in 1919 there was a reduction in production from sanctions, and the population of Iran is objectively large).

Venezuela 1 x 365 x 30/28 = $ 391 rent per citizen in 2019. Reserves 10,000 barrels per citizen.

United Kingdom 1 x 365 x 40/57 = $ 256 annuity per citizen in 2019. Reserves 48 barrels per citizen.

There will be no special conclusions. Himself was extremely curious to count all this. It is equally suitable for responding to those who post photos of Dubai next to a photo of the Russian province, hinting at the inefficient use of oil revenues, and for those who talk about a super-rich country in natural resources that everyone around wants to take over.