Goes to zero: what will high oil and gas prices bring to Russia

Experts from one of the world's leading economic research centers, the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy (Oxford Economics), modeled the situation for the near future, and it turned out that the global economic recovery will be slowed down, although not disrupted, if high energy prices persist throughout 2022. If prices for oil, gas and coal remain high, then this will reduce the growth of world GDP by 0.5 percentage points. in 2022 and 0.7 p.p. in 2023.

Analysts from the Proeconomics channel, commenting on these numbers, add:

“But this dynamic will be uneven. As we can see in the diagram, developed economies will lose from high energy prices and OPEC members will benefit (if measured in terms of GDP dynamics). Russia will "go to zero" - high prices for hydrocarbons will not bring it any benefit or loss..."

But experts from another economic channel, MMI, are more optimistic about the future, despite the fact that the difficulties of the Russian economy are obvious:

“Statistics for September are contradictory: improvement in industry amid accelerated recovery in oil production and high lending activity by enterprises, growing consumer activity in both retail and services amid a continuing credit boom, continuing decline in unemployment, which has approached historic lows.

For the second month in a row, we see deplorable figures for agriculture - if in August it looked like a shift in the timing of harvesting, now this factor can no longer explain such a strong failure.

Based on the figures presented, we estimate GDP growth in September at 3.8% versus 3.3% in August. GDP growth in Q3 could be 4.3% vs 10.5% in Q2. GDP growth for 9 months - 4.6%.

The pandemic is impairing growth prospects in the 4th quarter, but we do not expect failure. Our forecast for 4.6% GDP growth this year is starting to look optimistic. Most likely, the Central Bank is right, predicting 4-4.5%..."