In 2024-2027 the Earth can be attacked by a meteorite equal in power to the Tunguska

Andrey Zlobin, Ph.D., expert of the Center for Planetary Defense

In Soviet times, this phenomenon was often called a volunteer science. The phenomenon was especially developed during the thaw and creative heyday of the sixties. During the years of late socialism, science on a voluntary basis became the favorite business of many intellectuals and took the form of various associations of enthusiasts. An example is the Complex Amateur Expedition for the Study of the Tunguska Meteorite (CSP). The work of such scientific creative teams was coordinated by people of unique destiny and real passionaries. In their free time, seekers of scientific truths gathered together, organized expeditions, listened to reports, held meetings, discussions, published the results of their research. The atmosphere of social science was unique, since many not only shone with knowledge, but also enriched each other with artistic, musical, and poetic talents.

Scientific work on a voluntary basis has a number of huge advantages that distinguish it from administratively regulated research. This is, first of all, absolute freedom of creativity and freedom of thought, inaccessible to most scientists working under administrative control. If we talk about breakthrough discoveries, then personal freedom has always meant much more in science than the "leading role" of bureaucrats of various sizes. Rather, on the contrary: the freer a scientist feels, the more likely he is to achieve truly breakthrough results.

Until the end of the 20th century, mankind did not particularly think about asteroids and comets as sources of serious danger. It was believed that collisions with small bodies in the solar system are extremely unlikely. In the 90s, everything changed, as the world learned additional details of the fall of the Tunguska meteorite. The largest amount of unique information about the space catastrophe of 1908 was collected by the participants of the CSP - the Complex Amateur Expedition, a real scientific institute on a voluntary basis. Many suddenly realized that the monstrous explosion in Siberia had the power of a hydrogen bomb, and the consequences of similar strikes on the planet could be the most tragic. So seemingly amateurish research has sharply intensified the work of astronomers to study comets and asteroids. To date, about 30 thousand large asteroids approaching the Earth have been discovered. And in 2020 alone, this list was replenished by almost 3 thousand "space killers". Now it becomes clear to everyone why the work of the amateur scientists of the CSE was supported by the largest figures of science and technology of the Soviet Union. Take the help of the famous General Designer of rocketry, academician S.P. Korolev, who sent his employees to the Tunguska taiga. Among them was the future cosmonaut G.M. Grechko, who dived in the area of the fall of the Tunguska meteorite. Many researchers have passed the school of free scientific research, who at the same time have become well-known leaders of science.

The efforts of the enthusiasts who worked in the Tunguska taiga for many decades and collected the most valuable scientific information bit by bit were not in vain. The CSE participants published volumes of scientific papers, a huge number of articles, compiled the most detailed maps, catalogs, collected many hundreds of eyewitness testimonies about the event of June 30, 1908. None of the meteorite falls in the entire history of science has been studied in such detail as the Tunguska one. Since the lion's share of all publications about the Tunguska meteorite was made in Russian, Russia today is the absolute scientific leader in super-powerful impact processes. Western scientists actually know no more than 5% of the information related to the Tunguska disaster. Many foreign researchers mistakenly judge the Tunguska meteorite by the outdated publications of astronomers, who, as it turned out, did not know well the laws of the supersonic motion of meteorites in the atmosphere. Until now, science on the other side of the globe lags behind in understanding powerful high-speed meteorite processes. According to the results of expeditions to Tunguska, Russian scientists are at least half a century ahead. In Russia, Tunguska has become the starting point for breakthrough theoretical research, the most modern computational methods for computer modeling, unique technologies for countering space threats, progress in geological, geochemical, biological, environmental and many other areas of scientific knowledge.

Touching upon the problem of asteroid hazard, the following should be noted. Only having the most complete information about dangerous space bodies can decisions be made on the impact on their orbits. The slightest unreasonable correction of the orbit of an asteroid or comet in the future can be fatal. The threat of the space "billiards" has not been canceled - even by slightly disrupting the order of movement of minor planets, which has been forming for billions of years, it is possible to achieve the opposite effect and bring trouble to our planet. In a chain, knocking each other out of orbits, the "asteroid balls" of the space billiards can boomerang into the Earth. This does not mean at all that there is no need to prepare to counter a possible space threat. But this must be done wisely, relying on the entire world scientific community, the entire intellectual elite, and taking into account the maximum of various risks. Thoughtlessly bombarding the small bodies of the solar system with spacecraft, modern man still differs little from Pithecanthropus brandishing a club. At one time, Academician V.I. Vernadsky put forward the idea of the noosphere and stated that humanity has become a geological force. Today we are seeing how human influence is growing already on the scale of the solar system. It will be good if our civilization is smart enough not to break the woods by derailing whole trains of asteroids. But the future looks terrible if people are preparing a chain of endless collisions for planets and asteroids. This is especially true of the planet Earth with its nuclear power plants, nuclear weapons storage facilities, radioactive sarcophagi, dumps, burials of chemical production waste.

It was a great luck that for almost a hundred years the Tunguska disaster was studied by a community of disinterested people who did not receive any payment for their labor. This is also the uniqueness of the scientific results obtained by the Integrated Amateur Expedition. Highly educated people - academicians, doctors and candidates of sciences, heads of institutes, supervisors, researchers - worked on the phenomenon of the Tunguska meteorite in the KSE. Broad education allowed CSE participants to explore a cosmic catastrophe from an interdisciplinary perspective, in all the variety of its manifestations.

Currently, the Russian level of understanding of space threats is the highest in the world. The destruction of a cometary body hundreds of meters in size in the Podkamennaya Tunguska region in 1908 provided scientists with a mass of the most important documentary information for analysis. Only Russia possesses a gigantic data bank on the Tunguska meteorite and almost a century of experience in detailed studies of a planetary catastrophe recorded by instruments around the globe. On the basis of the titanic research work carried out on Tunguska, Russian scientists are simulating many powerful high-speed meteoric processes, making forecasts taking into account the consequences of the real Tunguska explosion of the megaton class. An important observation of our researchers was the relationship between the largest fireballs and periods of solar activity. Following this logic, dangerous collisions of the Earth with small cosmic bodies can occur much more often than previously thought - every 11 years, during the years of solar maximums. The nearest 25th maximum is just around the corner, and from 2024 to 2027 there is an increased likelihood of another "surprise" from space. The Center for Planetary Defense, as the leader of the relevant professional competencies, closely monitors the development of the situation, and constantly informs the public about the threat of disasters and the need to counter them. Technologies developed by the Center, including the Citadel project, can serve as a basis for effectively repelling space attacks.

The scientific breakthrough made on a voluntary basis by volunteer researchers of the Tunguska meteorite is just beginning to be realized by enlightened people. Unfortunately, the process is too slow. Until now, statesmen of all countries have not fully understood how real the danger of cosmic catastrophes is and how terrible the retribution for this carelessness can be. Delay is like death. Every year, month, day, every hour of delay can be fatal for all mankind, which risks being late in taking protective measures. It is obvious that in the event of a serious space threat, the efforts and resources of all states will be needed, and there will be no time left to negotiate, engage in political curtsies and diplomatic squats.

Alas, the world's population continues to live hopefully at random. Twenty years ago, the recognized leader of the CSE, Academician N.V. Vasiliev, constantly noted this alarming fact. In 2001, in the last days of his life, he wrote in his diary: "There is nothing big in the" big world "... some kind of small-town rubbish ...". We see this rubbish to this day. People and states continue to divide territories, property, spheres of influence, fight with each other, forgetting that the sword of Damocles of common mortal danger is constantly hanging over them. In his final monograph dedicated to the Tunguska meteorite, N.V. Vasiliev stated: “He who has ears - let him hear ... if this book, contributing to the awareness of mankind of the cosmic danger that threatens him, awakens in people of the state level an understanding of the need for the earliest possible implementation of the international program“ Space Shield ” - the author will consider his task completed ... If humanity does not come to his senses and does not stop building a strategy of its development on consumer principles, civilization will face a near and irreversible collapse, even if it manages to avoid nuclear wars. " This is the opinion of a man of the highest scientific qualifications, who has devoted forty years to research on Tunguska, and better than others who have realized the conditions for the survival of intelligent life on our planet.