Posted 20 декабря 2021,, 12:07
Published 20 декабря 2021,, 12:07
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Against this backdrop, there was a boom in private investment. Will they rescue Russians' personal finances in 2022?
Keeping your savings and savings under your pillow now means agreeing to guaranteed losses. Currency savings are also not a panacea. If the conflict between Russia and the West does not flare up, the war does not start in Ukraine, the United States does not flood the world with oil, and everything goes in accordance with the agreements between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, the ruble has every chance to remain next year is relatively stable. What to do?
Go for cryptocurrencies? Fluctuations in their rates promise just mountains of gold! But this year alone, Bitcoin soared from $ 25 thousand to $ 64 thousand, fell to $ 30 thousand, again soared to $ 65 thousand and fell to $ 47 thousand. It is not easy to choose the “right” moment of buying and selling. The Central Bank is so concerned about the financial security of citizens that it recently announced plans to completely ban investment in cryptocurrencies in general for everyone: both for beginners and qualified investors. Getting into a crypt, you should understand that losing all your savings is easier than increasing them, and there is always a risk of legal restrictions. If some people offer to take your funds into management on the cryptocurrency market, then you should know: these are most likely scammers . For reputable financial companies, crypto carries too many risks.
You can go to the American stock market. But the semiconductor crisis, logistics problems, tense U.S.-China trade relations, dependence on the spread of new strains of coronavirus and accelerating inflation are adding too much uncertainty. And investments in IPOs, in terms of the degree of risk, sometimes tend to cryptocurrencies.
Bank deposits, unlike crypts, are as reliable as possible. But, according to the Central Bank, in October 2021, the weighted average rates on deposits for up to 1 year were 5.61% per annum, and the maximum rates now barely exceed 7.3% . Deposit income won't even cover official inflation. But there is also the growing popularity of the Russian stock market. Stock exchange products used to be a tool for advanced investors, but in 2021 they have become truly popular. By the end of October 2021, the number of brokerage accounts opened by individuals on the Moscow Exchange reached 25 million! Securities of second-tier companies, for example, regional energy companies, can please with profitability, but their forecasting is too difficult for newcomers. The shares of the largest Russian companies are another matter. Novye Izvestia studied the forecasts of the leading Russian and foreign investment houses and tried to figure out whether there are prospects for investing in shares of Russian companies that are more familiar and understandable to the average person?
We selected stocks of companies from 5 leading industries (oil and gas, metallurgy, finance, IT, retail), collected forecasts and calculated the consensus forecast (average value) for the IV quarter. 2022 year. In general, the prospects for the Russian stock market are good: investors and analysts are betting on a post-like economic recovery. Moreover, American analysts from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley often have a more optimistic view of Russian companies than domestic experts. But not all industries are the same outlook and safe.
There will definitely be growth in this area in 2022. But indiscriminately investing in all oil and gas companies is not worth it. Gazprom should become the leader in the growth of share prices next year. Escaping gas prices in Europe (the cost of 1,000 cubic meters has already exceeded $ 1,700), Biden's assurance that no sanctions will be applied to Nord Stream 2 and the start of Power of Siberia 2 development through Mongolia promise a 44.37% rise in shares by the end of next year. Rosneft will not be offended either. The implementation of the Vostok Oil project guarantees the company at least stable state support. It is difficult to imagine that Igor Sechin's company was left alone with its problems. The budget will not abandon it, and people will support with their taxes. Result: an increase of 30.07% by the end of the year. But Lukoil's prospects are not so bright. There are problems with the recovery of production after the wells are suspended under the OPEC + restrictions, but investors are waiting for generous dividends, which under the new rules will amount to 100% of free cash flow, and the continuation of the buyback of shares. Result: an increase of 30.07%.
But with the shares of Gazprom Neft and the mysterious Surgutneftegaz, one should be careful. Professional analysts do not see any special potential in them and generally doubt whether there will be growth. By the end of 2022, according to the consensus forecast, Gazprom Neft will grow by only 6.58%, while Surgutneftegaz may even lose 1.8%. Doubtful investment choice.
Metallurgical enterprises made a lot of noise in 2021. They were able to take advantage of more than one and a half times the global rise in metal prices and raised the price tags in the domestic market, distributing dividends left and right. The authorities did not like this turnaround, and Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov even put forward accusations of "screwing up" the state for 100 billion rubles. The government did not manage to push the metallurgists in response. But on the other hand, Alexey Miller and Igor Sechin are trying to get their share: Gazprom and Rosneft received the status of interested parties in the FAS case against NLMK (Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant). and Severstal. Gazprom needs cheaper pipes, while Rosneft needs a lot of metal for both the Vostok Oil project and the Zvezda shipyard. Sechin and Miller have considerable weight, so it is possible that metallurgists will have to share their super profits. From this, the forecasts for the next year are quite moderate.
NLMK should add 26.97%, Norilsk Nickel - 12.53%, Severstal - 30.29%, and only MMK (Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works) stands out with growth of 151.43% thanks to the forecast of Freedom Finance: they growth is expected from the current 63.49 rubles per share to 472.59 rubles. But this is an exception. All other analysts aim at the area of 80 rubles per share. It is possible to invest in metallurgy, but it is worth keeping a close eye on attempts to withdraw the companies' excess profits.
Not the most popular category of companies traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange, but it is represented by very serious players. It is in this area, perhaps, the greatest chances of success.
The main financial companies on the Moscow Exchange are Sberbank and VTB. They are controlled by the state, through them a significant part of the financing of the state debt is carried out, the Central Bank regularly cleans the banking sector from private banks, capital is always available to them on attractive terms. Plus, the reduction in purchasing power and fears that tomorrow everything will be even more expensive forcing people to take out loans. German Gref's promises to receive a net profit of RUB 1.2-1.24 trillion at the end of 2021 also fuel investor interest.
Sberbank by the end of next year, according to leading analysts, should rise in price by 45.63%, and VTB - by 30.24%. But there is another important instrument - the shares of the Moscow Exchange itself. The desire of people to somehow increase their savings will not leave her without a stream of customers. Moreover, the only competitor, the St. Petersburg stock exchange, specializes mainly in shares of foreign companies. This is a different profile. Shares of the Moscow Exchange are expected to rise in price by 28.55%. It is very promising, and the risks are minimal.
According to Finexpertiza, the largest growth in revenue for 9 months of 2021 among all large and medium-sized enterprises in Russia was shown by wholesale and retail trade enterprises. They earned 50.8 trillion rubles - 12.9 trillion more than in the same period last year. Thanks to the irrepressible inflation. In such a situation, large retail chains remain the winners, which can dictate their terms to suppliers and offer customers prices that are adequate against the background of small local stores (albeit sometimes to the detriment of the quality of products).
No drastic changes are expected next year: people always want to eat, goods in the markets and in local stores will not become cheaper. Therefore, Lenta, which also recently bought the online retailer Utkonos (nowhere without online), should rise in price by 22.15%, Magnit, which has completely passed under the control of Sergei Lavrov's son-in-law, should add 39.88% ... And X5 Retail Group, represented by Pyaterochnaya, Perekrestok and Perekrestok Vprok, an online store with a wide delivery geography, expects its quotes to grow by 70.62%! And again the forecast from "Freedom Finance" played into the hands, which promises an increase in the price of shares from 2004 rubles to 4947 rubles. The rest of the investment houses promise a more moderate growth of about 50%, which is also very good.
It is simply impossible to bypass the IT sphere in 2022. This is our present and future. Only from the point of view of investment is a very ambiguous future. Competition in the market is high, some companies come, others leave, there is only one step from the love of users of IT services to hatred. In addition, there are enough newcomers on the market, the attitude towards whom has not yet been formed.
The situation is more or less clear, perhaps with Yandex. Analysts' forecasts for it are stable, they do not differ with a wide spread. Yandex has good business diversification, a number of popular services, and does not conflict with the authorities. And by the end of the year it should rise in price by 52.31%. Not bad. But VK, recently sold to SOGAZ and Gazprom Bank, promises a profit of 179.37%. Why? After all, things, as Novye Izvestia recently found out , are actually not going well with the social network. It's simple: analysts themselves do not yet understand what will happen to the social network under the leadership of Vladimir Kiriyenko. Otkritie Broker predicts a rise in quotations from the current 943 rubles per share to 1,500 rubles, and Finam - up to 3,561 rubles. More than double the spread is a sign of uncertainty.
A twofold increase in investments can be given by the shares of Softline. But they started trading on the Moscow Exchange only in November, and only VTB Capital and Sberbank CIB managed to give a forecast for them. But with such a volume of data, it's better not to rush to count on success. On December 17, the cybersecurity company Positive Technologies entered the exchange. The top managers of the company clearly see the potential in the exchange placement, but the start of trading did not reveal any excitement from the investors.
Overall, 2022 may turn out to be a really good year for the Russian stock market. Judging by the forecasts, there is a chance at least to save your savings from inflation.
The main thing to understand is that analysts' forecast is not a guarantee of income. This is just the opinion of people, which can change depending on the circumstances. Only scammers can guarantee profitability, the number of which increases along with the number of non-professional investors on the exchange. Hanging noodles on the ears of people who do not see any other option for preserving their savings is as easy as shelling pears. If the money is lost on the exchange, then no one will return it.