Posted 29 декабря 2021,, 11:23
Published 29 декабря 2021,, 11:23
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
What Russia will get - read in the expert's material.
Igor Zhernov, All-Russian Society of Inventors and Rationalizers
We are living in an era of fundamental change. The renowned American intelligence agent and forecaster Matthew Burroughs is confident, and I was convinced by his arguments that by 2030 Asia will overtake North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, expressed not only in GDP and population, but also in arms spending and investment in new technologies, which will fundamentally change the balance of power in the world arena.
China should become the main partner for Russia. We are not talking about such concepts as "friendship forever" and a military alliance (the threat of such an alliance works much better than the created alliance). We must do what contributes to the development of our country, improves the quality of life and ensures our sovereignty in full accordance with the bright and capacious slogan proposed by A. Devyatov: TOGETHER WITH CHINA, ON CHINA'S SHOULDERS, AT THE EXPENSE OF CHINA.
The main obstacle to the development of mutually beneficial economic relations between Russia and China are the myths, in particular about the aggressiveness of China, which were created by quite effective Anglo-Saxon propaganda with the support of Russian media controlled by our pro-Western elite.
The fight against such myth-making is a necessary stage for the implementation of a new economic strategy. During his speech at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, the President of the Russian Federation once again stated the need to create a Greater Eurasian Economic Partnership with the participation of all countries of Asia and Europe.
Concrete action is essential to advance any idea. Such an action could be the project of the Eurasian ultra-modern transport system, which includes a high-speed passenger-and-freight railway. The first stage proposes a route connecting Chinese ports in the Pacific Ocean through Altai and Novosibirsk with Russian ports in the Baltic, with further expansion in the West through Belarus to European ports in the Atlantic, in the South towards Iranian ports and in the East towards Vietnam. The problem for Russia is that in the absence of practical experience in the construction of high-speed lines, limited funding opportunities and an insignificant share in future cargo transportation, it seems inappropriate to take on significant financial risks.
Moreover, why, in the current conditions, spend the budget on global infrastructure projects that have long payback periods, and may turn out to be unprofitable, if there is an opportunity to do this at the expense of foreign investors who are ready to take on financial risks? Money is needed for the development of science, education, health care and ensuring their sovereignty.
The optimal solution is proposed on the basis of the Russian-Chinese economic partnership. In the context of growing contradictions with the United States, China desperately needs a reliable and safe route for the delivery of goods to Europe. The essence of the Russian stage of the megaproject is the exchange of a permit for the construction of transport infrastructure at the expense of Chinese investors on the terms of a concession to open the Chinese market of ready-made food products for the agricultural industry of Russia and other EAEU members.
China benefits from such an exchange, they get a reliable and safe route that allows them to transfer their goods to the attractive European market in just 3 days, which creates a competitive advantage for them over manufacturers from the USA, Japan, and Korea.
The opening of the food market from Russia, firstly, will not be able to have a significant negative impact on the 1.5 billion consumer market, and secondly, it will ensure the loading of the route from Europe to China, which is traditionally less congested. The benefit of Russia is that, unlike government national projects, which are based on budgetary resources and are aimed primarily at the domestic market, this project is aimed at highly profitable and solvent international markets for transport and tourism services, as well as an explosive growth in the export of high-quality finished products. nutrition.
This refers to the creation in China of a joint network of wholesale and retail trade and a corresponding quality control system. Given the difficulty of Russian business entering the Chinese market, it is advisable at the initial stage to entrust the organization of work to a special state corporation such as REC with the ability to conduct scientific research on provincial food markets and consumer tastes, which will make it possible to form an appropriate order for the agricultural industry.
Additional budget revenues and growing demand for innovations will allow not only to revive agricultural science in the region, but also to give new life to the entire Golden Scientific Triangle Tomsk-Novosibirsk-Biysk. Modern transport infrastructure will trigger the creation of a unique tourist cluster BOLSHOY ALTAI, which includes the territories of Mongolia, China, Kazakhstan and the two most economically backward regions of Russia: the Republics of Altai and Tyva.
For the development of tourism, it is advisable to build another basic highway that runs along our border and connects Kyzyl and Kazakh Ust-Kamenogorsk.
The road can be built both with the help of private investments and resources of the Ministry of Defense as it is of strategic importance. It is important to start designing a tourism cluster with attracting world-class specialists to develop a Master Plan with the subsequent transfer of plots to private investors on a competitive basis. At the same time, paramount importance should be given to modern environmental requirements and protection measures against possible critical climatic impacts.
The training system for the industry is also of paramount importance. Using the constructed highway and mastering the advanced Chinese technologies of infrastructure construction, it will be possible, at relatively low cost, to organize high-speed passenger traffic between the largest cities of Siberia. The second macro-region, which includes the Leningrad, Pskov, Novgorod and Vologda regions, should be oriented towards close cooperation with the EU.
The historical roots of our country are in this region, and it is our duty to create all the conditions for turning the region into an example of a modern and comfortable territory that is not inferior in quality of life to the neighboring Baltic countries. The transcontinental highway will become a source of development for the region. For example, the high-speed railway St. Petersburg-Vologda will significantly increase the flow of tourists to attractive places in the Russian North. The most promising region in the middle of the route is the South Urals region.
The organization of an international transport and logistics hub in the region of Ufa or Chelyabinsk will reduce the time for business in the region to enter global markets to 1-3 days and attract significant investments for the development of innovative industrial and agricultural production, as well as tourism. The region can become the beginning of the high-speed rail freight towards the ports of Iran and access to the promising markets of India and Pakistan.
Each region along the high-speed rail has its own characteristics, but their commonality lies in the possibility of accelerated development of three industries that are able to withstand external pressure in the form of sanctions and bring the country the necessary foreign exchange earnings: transit traffic, food export and international tourism. It is these industries that make up our global competitive advantage.
Thus, a mega-project in the field of international logistics is proposed, which, due to the multiplier effect, is able not only to become a locomotive of the country's economic growth, but also to naturally develop effective development institutions. The total length of the highway will be 8,800 km, the border between Russia and China in the Altai Mountains region divides the highway almost in half, which seems to be very symbolic.
The delivery time for highly profitable container cargo from China to Europe or vice versa is reduced from 45 days by sea to 3. At the same time, the reliability of delivery in comparison with the southern corridors increases sharply, there will be only one border crossing on the entire route. Due to the lack of data on the cost of construction of freight high-speed lines (they are not yet available), the estimate of the construction cost of the Russian section of the highway was carried out on the basis of the data of the railway site (www.donetskrail.com), confirmed by the Center for Strategic Research, according to the open 01.12.2012 of the high-speed line of Harbin- Dalian.
The 921 km track runs in difficult terrain conditions with a cold climate. The total cost of construction was $ 15.58 billion, the average cost of one km of the route was $ 16.9 million. Let us take a correction factor that takes into account inflation equal to 1.2 and a factor that takes into account the specifics of a freight line equal to 1.1. In addition, for a particularly difficult section of 500 km long, passing through Altai Mountains, we will take an additional coefficient equal to 3.
Then the total cost of the construction of the 4400 km long highway will be $ 120 billion. Taking into account the multiplier coefficient, which for such infrastructure projects is up to 10, we can talk about a mega-project worth a trillion dollars.
This volume of private investment practically guarantees stable growth of the entire Russian economy for 10-15 years at a rate of at least 5-8% per annum. At the same time, there are no risks for the budget, the share of budget expenditures will not exceed 5% of the volume of private investments, and the presence of Chinese property in the form of infrastructure on our territory will serve as a guarantee for the fulfillment of their obligations regarding the import of our food.
If the Chinese side bears responsibility for the design, construction and operation of the transport infrastructure, then we must take full responsibility for organizing the DEVELOPMENT BELT of the new economy along the new route. At the same time, in order to prevent China's excessive influence on our economy, it is necessary to limit Chinese investments in the DEVELOPMENT BELT and create the most favorable conditions for infrastructure builders. The route through the Russian territory, of course, should be determined by our side based on the criterion of maximizing the multiplier effect.
Financing the development of the route of the highway and the purchase of land for it for the subsequent transfer of it to Chinese investors on lease for 49 years and will amount to a relatively small cost of our budget. It is necessary to understand that determining the route of the route requires careful coordinated actions of our and Chinese designers and an understanding of the regional development strategy. For example, when designing a high-speed line bridge across the Ob in the Barnaul region, it is necessary to take into account the modernization of the Kulunda irrigation system, the possibility of building a hydroelectric power station, which was conceived in conjunction with the Novosibirsk hydroelectric power station back in the 50s of the last century, to take into account the idea of transferring the flood waters of the Ob towards Lake Chany, etc.
Considering that the technology of building railway infrastructure for passenger traffic at speeds up to 400 km / h in China has been worked out, it will most likely be taken as a basis for freight traffic at speeds up to 250 km / h. Some technical solutions will be required both in terms of infrastructure and new vehicles that have not yet been designed. In this regard, it seems expedient to attract enterprises from the EU with the subsequent production of freight vehicles by cooperation both in Russia and in China.
Cargo handling and maintenance of trains should be carried out during short (15-20 minutes) stops at automated terminals, which will be located at a distance of 500-800 km from each other. The speed of delivery of goods also determines other requirements for the infrastructure. If in China and Europe a gauge of 1435 mm is used, then this line must also comply with this standard, other options increase costs.
Thus, it is proposed to build a high-speed transit freight railway, independent of the Russian Railways system, with the possibility of organizing passenger traffic on certain sections. To organize local logistics in parallel with the main railway, it is advisable to build a highway with a system of local roads, which will ensure both the development of regions and communication with the Russian Railways system.
If experienced Chinese contractors are engaged in the construction of high-speed railways, then the construction of highways can become a joint project of the participating countries with the involvement of regional representatives of small and medium-sized businesses. The progress of the project is restrained by the position of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, where departmental rather than state interests prevail, which has already led to our lag in rail transport for decades from world leaders.
In the TRANSPORTATION STRATEGY of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035, the issues of international cooperation in the field of railways, in contrast to road projects, are practically absent: only the dates for the implementation of the dubious EURASIA project until 2035 are indicated. It is surprising that the department is not considering a joint project with our strategic partner China, which has long become a world leader in infrastructure construction. It is precisely the access to modern technologies during the implementation of the joint project that will allow Russian Railways to gain competitiveness in the market of the promising high-speed rail system in Greater Eurasia, and later in Africa.
Considering the huge multiplier effect of the megaproject and the regulations existing in the Government, it is the Ministry of Transport that should take the leading role in the implementation of the project, sacrificing the monopoly status of Russian Railways, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Federal Tourism Agency, and other departments are interested in this. The implementation of the project guarantees sustainable growth of the entire Russian economy, which is the main goal set for the Government by the President of Russia. The key role in the implementation of this project belongs to the region of the south of Western Siberia.
This region and its center Novosibirsk are the most convenient place for innovative approaches to the development of Russian-Chinese relations. A fairly large population compared to other regions of the eastern part of the country, a differentiated economy and significant intellectual potential significantly minimize the risks. The main reason for the stagnation of foreign economic relations is the ineffective management system in Russia compared to China. There, national funds are accumulated and invested in socio-economic development with full responsibility of the authorities at all levels for the decisions made and the costs incurred.
This is undoubtedly a continuation of the experience of the BIG PROJECTS of the USSR, which brought our country to the status of a superpower. Modern Russia needs not only large-scale projects, but also a significant adjustment of relations between federal, regional and municipal structures.
Modern Russia needs not only large-scale projects, but also a significant adjustment of relations between federal, regional and municipal structures. Three years ago, the Ministry of Economic Development, then headed by M. Oreshkin (now an aide to the President of the Russian Federation), put forward the idea of 12 economic regions of the Russian Federation with expanded powers. Supporting this idea, I propose to conduct an experiment in the region of the south of Western Siberia.
The region is not burdened by the influence of oligarchic structures and national problems, is average in climatic conditions and the level of economic development, has a high scientific potential. A feature of the region is a common border with China, but there is no direct land transport infrastructure. Hence, the optimal pairing of two global economic ideas follows. The experiment allows you to work out new ideas for territorial management, including budget, tax and migration policies. In particular, the program for the return of Russian Germans to the region, who got sick of problems with migrants in modern Germany, can become a great human potential.
If certain conditions were created, hundreds of thousands of German families could become the vanguard of innovative agrarians. Forecasted warming, sustainable economic growth and the associated possibility of improving the quality of life of the population, redistributing the budget in favor of municipalities and increasing their independence, other necessary democratic transformations create excellent conditions for the return to Russia of millions of our compatriots who have left the country over the past 30 years.
The region is able to provide employment and comfortable living conditions for up to 15-20 million people instead of the current 8. With a view to the spatial development of the country, taking into account the experience of working "remotely" and improving the quality of management, it is proposed to consider the issue of transferring a number of ministries and head offices of the largest state-owned companies to the east. For example, the Ministry of Transport should be transferred to Omsk, the Ministry of Agriculture - to Novosibirsk, and Rostourism - to Gorno-Altaysk.
The optimal location for the new complex of buildings of Russian Railways should not be expensive and overloaded Moscow, but the town of Barabinsk railway workers located between Omsk and Novosibirsk, which in this version, in a few years from a provincial town, will turn into a supermodern Innograd, in which Moscow officials who have not stayed too long will work. but creative new people. The idea of a Russian-Chinese infrastructure megaproject is 100% consistent with the statement of the President of Russia, made back in 2015, on the need to combine the Chinese initiative ONE BELT, ONE WAY with the integration processes in the EAEU.
Given the restrained position of the Government of the Russian Federation on this issue, it is possible to implement the project through the EAEU-China agreement, which will significantly increase the status of this Union. Returning to the theme of the Greater Eurasian Economic Partnership, one must understand that the new highway is beneficial not only to our two countries, it opens up an effective alternative route for the delivery of EU goods to Southeast Asia and back. EU sanctions will quickly come to naught. In our opinion, they became possible not only because of a lack of understanding of our actions in Ukraine, but because after 2008, as a result of inadequate economic policy, Russia lost its attractiveness for business, including from the EU.
Instead of the established practice of developing individual megacities, this project is focused on the spatial development of Russia and provides for an emphasis on the development of small towns and rural areas with their own local economies. The transcontinental China-Russia-Europe highway is a real step towards the formation of the Greater Eurasian Economic Partnership, the source of our peaceful sustainable development and improving the quality of life for all of us.