Rumors immediately spread that, they say, the local population perceived the presence of the Russian "occupiers" badly and people allegedly demand "to remove them from Kazakhstan."
Gennady Charodeyev
The decision to invite the peacekeeping forces was announced on January 5 by the authorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan. But on January 10, speaking at an extraordinary session of the CSTO Collective Security Council, Vladimir Putin said that the organization had managed to prevent the degradation of the situation in Kazakhstan.
It is interesting that the sources of "NI" close to the CSTO peacekeepers in Kazakhstan claim that the Russian paratroopers have just consolidated their positions in their assigned positions. It also became known which objects are now under the control of Russian troops:
98th Airborne Division (Ivanovo / Kostroma) controls the airport in Nur-Sultan (Astana); General Staff building (Nur-Sultan); television center (Nur-Sultan).
45th brigade of special forces of the Airborne Forces (Kubinka, Moscow region) guards the Almaty airport, the air defense headquarters (Nur-Sultan); 602 base (Shymkent)
The 31st Airborne Brigade (Ulyanovsk) took Kazatomprom (Ust-Kamenogorsk) under the guardianship.
Fighters of the Special Operations Forces of Russia (TsSN "Senezh") guard the presidential palace (Nur-Sultan); Central Bank (Nur-Sultan city); building of the National Security Committee (Nur-Sultan).
The 414th separate marine battalion controls the approaches to the port of Aktau.
CSTO troops from Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are guarding almost all key facilities in Kazakhstan.
Questions arise: if they all leave Kazakhstan, who will take control of the most important state and economic facilities? Who will pay for the costly withdrawal of the CSTO troops from Kazakhstan?
This is how Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Eurasian Development expert center, sees this situation:
- For Tokayev, the sooner the CSTO operation is completed, the calmer, the better for him and his image as the president of the country. Regarding the premature, partly here we can talk about the fact that today thousands of people have been officially detained, while there are no statistics on how many weapons were seized and how many were lost, taken from gun stores. And here the question arises, how really the situation has stabilized and how ready is Kazakhstan in these conditions to independently continue work on stabilization. But we must remember that this decision was extended for 10 days, and it is possible that the stabilization effect from the presence of the CSTO during these days will increase sufficiently.
In an interview with "NI", independent military columnist and analyst Pavel Felgenhauer noted:
- It is unlikely that the local population in Kazakhstan liked the introduction of foreign troops into the country. And so they leave. It is not yet clear how the peacekeepers will be withdrawn. According to some reports, they will again, along with the equipment, be loaded onto military transport aircraft and delivered to their permanent locations. It turns out, and this time they will do without the railway. Apparently in a hurry! They want to round off as quickly as possible so as not to delay the forces that are necessary for a possible operation in Ukraine in the western direction.
- It should be borne in mind that Russia today has heavy transport aircraft Ruslans and Ila flying on old Ukrainian engines produced by Motor Sich. Not enough spare parts. The motor resource in Syria is very much used up. And flying on "Ruslans" and even with equipment on board is dangerous and very expensive. As always, Russia will pay for everything, - the analyst noted.
Military observer Alexander Golts told "NI":
- Definitely, the CSTO troops will leave Kazakhstan. They will be loaded onto transport aircraft, and remember what they called. The introduction of such an armada into Kazakhstan is expensive, and its withdrawal is even more expensive. Who will pay for this? Russia from its state budget! According to President Tokayev, the Kazakhs believe that the Russian troops have fulfilled their main task - they have returned the security forces under the wing of President Tokayev.
Alexander Golts could not say anything about the allegedly negative attitude of the local population in Kazakhstan towards the CSTO troops. However, according to him, it is clear that the fewer foreign troops will be in Kazakhstan, the better. Otherwise, all kinds of domestic incidents that cannot be prevented are inevitable.
Andrey Kazantsev, chief researcher at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told "NI":
- It is clear that the attitude of the Kazakh population towards the presence of foreign troops is not very good. Kazakhstan is an independent state, and now, it turns out, everything depends on the CSTO troops! Foreign soldiers were supposed to help Tokayev as the legitimate president of Kazakhstan. At some point, the local special services ceased to obey him. They were at a loss and did not know whose orders to follow. Order was restored, and the CSTO troops must leave. The leadership of the CSTO will pay for this expensive pleasure - they have money for such cases, the expert said in an interview with NI.