Posted 16 февраля 2022, 10:17

Published 16 февраля 2022, 10:17

Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38

Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38

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The next is Transnistria? Experts wonder about the fate of another unrecognized republic

16 февраля 2022, 10:17
Фото: Фото: Соцсети
Ukrainian and Russian politicians do not rule out that, following the recognition of the DPR and LPR, Russia will do the same with respect to other rebellious regions in the territory of the former USSR

As you know, in anticipation of the war, the US State Department recommended that the Americans immediately leave not only Ukraine, but also Transnistria, and also refrain from traveling to Moldova. The Americans explained this by the fact that Russian military units are also located in the unrecognized PMR.

What will the "new" republic be like?

Ukrainian historian and publicist Yuriy Khristenzen paints a rather gloomy perspective in this regard:

“During the filming of the film dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the creation of the CIS, the ex-president of Moldova reminded the ex-chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR of their conversation in Moscow in 1991: “If you don’t sign the Union Treaty, you will get Transnistria and Gagauzia.” Moldova did not sign the agreement, Transnistria received it, but Gagauzia did not.

The fact is that Russian troops were stationed in Transnistria. On the eve of the creation of the "PMR", General Lebed was sent there, who read a text about "Moldovan fascists" from a piece of paper and embarked on a "peacekeeping mission" with massive artillery and rocket attacks on the territory of Moldova.

There were no troops in Gagauzia, but disinformation campaigns and interference in political processes began then and continue to this day. The Republic of Gagauzia was created, which threatens to secede from Moldova if it joins NATO. An example of federalization as seen by the Kremlin.

Nearby is the southwestern part of the Odessa region. The Kremlin's agents and propaganda have also been working in it for many years. In 2015, they tried to create a "Bessarabian People's Republic" there. Blow up bridges across the Dniester, seize local administrations, declare independence and call on Russia for help.

If a full-scale war with Ukraine is unlikely, then the threat of creating a new "republic" on the border of Romania, Ukraine and Moldova is quite real. With access to the sea, it will quickly be pumped up with weapons and "ihtamnets". Then the next negotiations with the demand for "federalization", and so on until a new war.

Pridnestrovian "game" is not worth the candle

However, experts are not inclined to dramatize the situation around Transnistria. Analysts of the Kremlin BezBashennik channel believe that for Russia the game is not worth the candle:

“Signing now a draft document on the recognition of the LDNR means de facto marking the way to Russia not only for these unrecognized republics. And also sign before the whole world in a simple formula of joining all the fragments of the USSR through participation in military conflicts with the indispensable distribution of citizenship. Who is next in line - Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria? A precedent may turn out with ORDLO, however. But it is unlikely that the West will agree to this bargaining chip, let alone Ukraine. In addition, a conflict with the collapse of the Minsk agreements will be beneficial to Ukraine, and recognition will strengthen its status as a "victim". Therefore, the question before the Russian president is not easy: is the territorial game worth the candle?

Journalist Pavel Pryanikov generally believes that Russia’s recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR would be in the hands of Ukraine and the West:

“A mountain will fall off their shoulders in the form of the “Minsk agreements”, by which Russia determines the policy around Ukraine. And these MCs are an eternal way of pressure.

Another thing is that this will bring little joy to ordinary people of the LDNR, since it will not significantly change their lives. None of the gray zones of the New Dark Ages that Russia oversees - Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia - has life improved.

To improve the lives of people in the LDNR, they must either be given to Ukraine or taken to Russia (I think that most residents of these two territories are inclined towards the second option).”