Dmitry Oreshkin: "Russia is plunging into a state of catastrophe"

The border between Russia and the DNR and LNR is blocked. The head of the LPR, Pasechnik, signed a decree on the transfer of all state institutions to wartime conditions. Novye Izvestia discussed the situation in Donbass with political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin. In his opinion, Russian troops will not enter the territory of the DPR and LPR for fear of sanctions, but the self-proclaimed republics may be recognized by the Russian authorities.

- Is your forecast that there will be no war coming true?

- I feel a sense of mild horror, because what is happening looks like the realization of a predictable and understandable aggression. I thought that this was impossible, but now it seems that they are implementing the most obvious option, explaining the preparation of a strike on Ukraine. This means that Russia is plunging into a state of catastrophe. I'm not talking about Ukraine, I'm talking about Russia.

- What are the scenarios?

- The scenario is simple: an informational occasion is created, for example, an explosion of an oil pipeline or, as it were, a sabotage group penetrates from Ukraine into the DPR-LPR, and after that a punitive action begins, which is supported by the majority of the Russian population. I think that for now, unlike the Western leaders, the final decision has not been made, but it can be made at any moment. A local, largely hybrid conflict situation will begin in the Donbass.

I think that there will be no offensive from Russian territory itself, which could be recorded and accepted as a reason for imposing sanctions, but the strengthening of these self-proclaimed republics and, accordingly, their more aggressive tactics, is already taking place. We have a small but real war. This is a new version of proxy or hybrid warfare. It does nothing good for anyone. Neither Russia nor the DNR-LNR, on whose territory there will be hybrid military operations, it is clear that they will have to enter the gray zone and interact with the Ukrainian troops. Here the question is very important: in whose territory? If, as was the case during the shelling of a kindergarten, which is located on the territory controlled by Ukraine, it is rather difficult to explain that this is aggression on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Here the question arises to what extent Zelensky controls his security forces or paramilitary structures. We are talking about provoking the Ukrainian military contingent to try to invade the territory of ORDLO, which will serve as a pretext for an attack.

- How likely is the situation when the Ukrainian military will enter the Donbass?

- As I understand it, not idiots are sitting in the military structures of Ukraine, and they understand what Putin wants most in the world now, so they must behave sanely. And this is certainly understood in European capitals, which communicate with Zelensky no less than with Putin. We are very close to the brink of this hybrid war. While it is still informational, they drive unfortunate people from place to place across the border. Of course, it’s good if they promise to relocate. Allocate 10,000 to each. It turns out a billion. Someone will heat up the forelimbs very well on this. But all this will be well used as an information occasion. I just looked at the data of the Levada Center (Foreign Agent), it says that the ratings of Putin and United Russia have risen in the eyes of the public.

- Information appeared that Ukraine began to use anti-tank Jevilins.

- Let's start with the fact that Jevilins are purely defensive weapons. It's pointless to attack them. They can be used when a person sits in a ruin or trench and fires at an advancing tank. It is impossible to attack with this weapon. If these reports are true, it means that armored vehicles appeared at a distance of literally hundreds of meters or the first kilometer, that is, within the range of fire of these Javilins. This means that ORDLO armored vehicles have entered the gray zone, where they should not be under the ceasefire agreement.