Donbass is recognized. What's next?

Yesterday's recognition by Russia of the two self-proclaimed Donetsk republics did not leave anyone indifferent. According to Russian users of social networks, some fellow citizens were delighted with this event: “We have fireworks. Dacha settlement, where mostly retired soldiers. Others reacted to what was happening with caution. Anxiety was added by the statement of the head of the Duma Committee on the CIS, communist Kalashnikov, that "LPR and DPR will be recognized within the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions". And this means that the escalation is not over.

The second Afghan is practically guaranteed

Network analyst Andrey Nalgin is sure that the decision to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR is an act of aggression on the part of Russia:

“Is this a gross violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, contrary to the UN Charter? not the first. This is war. War on all fronts - and with "brotherly" Ukraine, probably "hot", and with Western countries: economic. The war is orchestrated, artificial, imposed on the Russians by the ruling regime and, of course, shameful from the very beginning. And in terms of its consequences, it will be compared with the Afghan one. Then, by the way, it also seemed to the “Kremlin elders” that this would be a local conflict resolved by a “limited contingent” ... What else could be worse?

Yabloko: this step deprives Russia of the future

Chairman of the Yabloko party, Nikolay Rybakov, also believes that this is a step towards bloodshed. This is stated in the statement of the party "Yabloko" on the recognition of the independence of the "DNR" and "LNR":

“President Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s recognition of the “independence” of the self-proclaimed “republics” of the DPR and LPR, signed “mutual assistance” agreements with them and sent Russian troops to their territory.

This decision grossly violates the Helsinki Act and a number of Russia's international treaties. At the same time, the rejection of the principle of the inviolability of state borders in Europe is justified by controversial historical digressions, the meaning of which is the desire to restore the Russian Empire within the borders of the middle of the 19th century.

On this strange pseudo-scientific historical and archival basis, President Putin questions the sovereignty of Ukraine, in fact declares it an enemy of Russia and, in addition, opposes our country to the entire developed modern world.

The consequence of this policy will be the suffering of people - both residents of Donbass and Russia, the international isolation of our country, the growth of large-scale economic and social problems.

"Yabloko" declares a strong protest against the recognition of the "DNR" and "LNR". In the current situation, this is a step towards a sharp increase in tension, fraught with bloodshed.

Vladimir Putin's policy is based solely on the past, it ignores the realities of the modern world and therefore deprives Russia of the future.

We categorically disagree with this policy and are sure that sooner or later we will have to return to the negotiation process with Ukraine, to the discussion of a peace settlement plan with the participation of international security forces on the basis of a draft proposed by our party back in 2017”.

Perhaps this is a big exchange between the West and Russia

Journalist Tikhon Dzyadko offered three explanations for why this was done:

- Or now the Kremlin can “legally” deploy troops there, and when it sees fit, “save” the population of Ukraine from the government that “seized power”: after all, it was no coincidence that Putin at the end of his speech said that responsibility for the shelling was in the hands of this very government (and shelling in recent days, which is called “the heaviest since 2015” - it’s like shelling, they seem to exist, but they don’t seem to exist, otherwise there would be reports of mass casualties, so if you wish, “shelling” is easy to create - that's it now there are TASS reports about "the ensuing silence")

- Either they explained to Putin that a real big war will be more serious than 2014, Russia is not expected there with hugs, but you need to save face, and therefore the option with the recognition of independence was chosen (with the possibility of continuing).

“Or this is an exchange with Macron and Scholz: they say, don’t start a war, but admit it, and we will not impose serious sanctions (but how serious they are and whether we will find out in the coming days).”

Russia's recognition of Donbass is Ukraine's victory

But the historian Mark Solonin, on the contrary, considers yesterday the Victory Day of Ukraine:

Everything is over. You can sum up. Putin made Biden look like an idiot (previously we thought he was a useful idiot).

Ukraine has forever freed itself both from the threat of the implementation of the "Minsk agreements" and from years of pressure to force it to implement them.

What made Putin shoot himself in the foot (abandon "Minsk" as a way of pressure/destruction of Ukraine)? Yes, yes, yes, the firm position of the Ukrainian leadership, fully supported in this case by the active part of Ukrainian society. It's that simple.

Tomorrow on RosTV will begin the bacchanalia of the Great Salvation of Fraternal Miners. Sobbing women greet tank columns with flowers on the streets of Lugansk and Donetsk. Buses with refugees return home. Everyone is crying. Good. Don't argue.

For those who are "in the tank". Absolutely NOTHING has changed in the occupied areas of Donbass. As they were de facto under the control of Russia, they remained / became. They, as they were de jure "timchasovo recoupment", have remained. It's just that the actual situation has received (will receive in two or three days) adequate legal formalization. Ukraine has not lost anything and has gained a tremendous amount (see paragraph 4).”

Russians, tighten your belts!

Politician Yulia Galyamina addressed her compatriots:

“Today, every Russian, whether he understands it already or not, has received a new life. A life even poorer, even more unfair, even more deceitful, even more insecure. Well, the main thing is the shame, which is now and which will be.

Why all this musculature and saber-rattling? Why is it for ordinary citizens of our country who just want to live normally? It is stupid and vile, first of all, in relation to the people who supported Putin for so many years.

Pity those who continue to do so. It is clear that propaganda will only intensify its pseudo-patriotic frenzy, and many will succumb. But you will have to pay a terrible price: a drop in living standards, disappointment and, God forbid, death.

History, which the current militant "elites" are constantly trying to rewrite, has its own laws. And it's stupid not to understand.

But if our people are destined to drink this cup to the bottom, we must be with our people. I see my task as keeping calm and fortitude, talking with people and taking care of interaction and mutual understanding, explaining and promoting the values that are close to me: caring for the place where you live, humanity and horizontal interaction. And which has become the main one today - the values of peaceful life.

Western answer: only sanctions so far

It is noteworthy that the West seems to limit itself to sanctions in this situation, albeit harsh ones, which allows us to hope that the war can still be avoided:

The editors of the influential American newspaper The Washington Post called for the imposition of sanctions immediately:

“This is how the post-war world, and indeed the post-Cold War world, ends: not yet with a bang or even with a whimper, but with a rant,” the Washington Post wrote in response to Putin’s address to the nation, in which “Mr Putin not only declared about his intention to destroy the institutions that had kept the peace in Europe after 1945, but also laid out the ideological basis for starting a war - even if he did not quite announce it. The key was the recognition of the two Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and thus the abandonment of any claim to respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine”.

“After Monday, unfortunately, it became clear that Mr. Putin could not be contained, war was likely, and there was no longer any reason to wait for the imposition of sanctions - with their spread beyond the separatist regions, which the White House immediately targeted sanctions. This would be the first step in a decisive response to this geopolitical crisis, but it is unlikely to be the last”.