Dollars - for Russia: how the state blocks the leakage of currency abroad

Exporting enterprises are required to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings from January 1, and Russian residents from March 1 will not be able to transfer euros and dollars to foreign accounts.

Yelena Ivanova, Natalia Seibil

The presidential decree on currency regulation took citizens by surprise. The main problem that the head of state is solving with these measures is understandable. It is necessary to prohibit the export of foreign currency by Russian residents. Russia, after the freezing of reserves and the restrictions imposed on the largest Russian banks, will soon begin to experience a shortage of foreign currency, and import-export operations will become a business not for the faint of heart.

For the first time since the 1990s, exporters are required to sell foreign exchange earnings. 80% sellers will have to sell the Central Bank. This is how the government and financial authorities want to regulate the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble.

“It hurts the company, there will be spreads, the currency will change in price, etc. This one is from the 90s. The percentage sale of foreign exchange earnings to Russia was long gone, and such a return, of course, marks the absolute return of Russia in those years. Done quite intentionally”, - Andrey Movchan comments on the situation.

The second measure is even more severe, and it affects the population directly.

The head of the Association of Russian Banks, Garegin Tosunyan, initially refused to believe that this was a real presidential decree, and not some fake news. I thought it was some kind of fake, but in this form it is a strange, strange text, the banker told Novye Izvestia:

- I do not understand the meaning of this ban, because it is not clear how to carry out the fulfillment of their obligations. I don’t want to believe it, but, in a sense, this is a ban on the use of currency by individuals and organizations. This is an exchange of sanctions against each other. In this case, all sanctions are addressed to our fellow citizens. I do not understand the deep meaning, but now there is no need to look for meaning.

Andrei Movchan believes that the country's financial authorities were not ready for such a level of sanctions. In order to maintain the situation, it is necessary to strictly limit all foreign economic activity:

“De facto , residents from Russia can no longer withdraw money either in debt, or in payment for contracts, or to secure purchases of securities, or simply for deposits. This is not only a matter of sharply restricting the economic rights and freedoms of citizens. Unprecedented, which has not been in Russia for many years.”

How medium-sized enterprises will be able to pay for foreign economic contracts, no one can say now. This will not only harm business, but also disrupt the supply of Russia. As a result, consumption will fall, and all economic factors of the country will deteriorate sharply.

There are also practical issues. How should guest workers transfer money to their families? Previously, they translated services such as, for example, Western Union. But it is closed because no one can say how much the ruble will cost. As it turns out, it will not open, because on what basis will all these Tajik workers be able to send 200 dollars to families? It turns out that all construction sites will rise?

Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Market Research, does not hide the fact that Russia is in a state of economic war. During the war, people suffer who have nothing to do with big financial transactions. Someone will suffer, the economist says, but the economy will benefit:

- You can, of course, say: no, we will not do this, because Marivanna will not be able to pay 88 euros 28 cents utility bills for her apartment in Bulgaria. Let's not introduce these laws. Do you want that? Well, the flag is in your hands. But then we will not ban billions of transfers. The situation is force majeure, it is actually an economic war.

The Central Bank solves other problems - how to stop the outflow of big capital from the country. But the financial authorities can't - or don't want to? - grading the law according to the amount of money transferred. It turns out, as always - to prevent the richest from moving their money to safer havens, the state is ready to bomb Voronezh. Someone will suffer, but the economy will win .

Why this should be dealt with by ordinary people and honest businesses that produce in Russia what it needs, but only from what Russia itself does not have, is not clear. To this, statesmen, like Georgy Ostapkovich, now have one simple answer:

- We live in a new reality after February 25th. Forget about how we lived before February 24th. Our current events are not economic, but geopolitical.

The situation with sanctions is extraordinary. Of course, tough sanctions were imposed against both Iran and Venezuela, but such a blow to such a large economy in the history of mankind has not yet been. Bankers have a bleak outlook on the future. Garegin Tosunyan says:

- Here we are not talking about the movement of currency within the country, but about the movement of currency and currency payments, but after a pause this may well result in a ban on the movement of currency within the country.

Answers to all questions should now be sought not from bankers or economists, but in the Kremlin and the White House. Both the reason and the meaning of these measures are buried there, Garegin Tosunyan is sure. Other experts say you need to wait two to three weeks. Then the government will adopt a roadmap and tell you what will happen to the economy and how they will regulate it.

One problem - the card may be accepted, but the ban has entered into force now. It turns out that it is easier for the government to comb one comb at a time. What, a la guerre comme a la guerre.