Posted 2 марта 2022, 12:37
Published 2 марта 2022, 12:37
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
One of the main consequences of Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine will be the "solution" of the problem of labor migrants. It should be reminded that as early as this year Russia was planning to import an additional 5 million migrants from Central Asia, as required by the authorities and business. Now the question will sharply arise of what to do with hundreds of thousands of migrants in the same Moscow agglomeration (where there are about 3 million people), when construction projects and various services begin to gradually stop, - journalist Pavel Pryanikov writes in his channel.
According to the Proeconomics channel, the Russian ruble also collapsed against the Kyrgyz som. A week ago, for 10 soms they gave 9 rubles, today - about 11. That is. drop by about 20%.
Hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz migrants work in Russia, and the vast majority of them send remittances to their homeland. And now these transfers, expressed in soms, have lost 20%. It is understandable how much dissatisfaction this causes among Kyrgyz workers in Russia. And probably many of them will require employers to increase their ruble wages.
In turn, the reduction of transfers from guest workers threatens to collapse the economy of Kyrgyzstan. These transfers make up about 20% of Kyrgyzstan's GDP.
The same situation with the Tajik and Uzbek currencies, the fall of the ruble against them by about 20%.
In total, labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan range from 3 to 4-6 million people (no one knows the exact figures). And now their earnings in Russia, expressed in local currencies, have fallen by 20%. In Tajikistan, the share of remittances from migrant workers in the local GDP is generally 27-28%. The country is chronically dependent on these transfers.
In the labor market in Russia, in sectors where there are many Central Asian migrants - this is especially construction and the service sector - big changes will now take place.
So, what neither the pandemic, nor the police, nor the migration service could do was a special operation in Ukraine.
Evidence has already appeared on the net of how, for example, in Lyubertsy near Moscow, a whole crowd of Central Asian migrants packed suitcases and boxes with household appliances onto the bus.
Airplanes fly to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, but the cost of tickets has increased significantly, so they are chosen by land transport - trains, buses through Kazakhstan.
Moscow taxi drivers testify that many migrant drivers no longer go to work. This led to the fact that there were half as many cars on the line, which means that the cost of travel increased.
True, the wipers are still working, but for how long?
Here are some messages from other regions:
The rest are mainly those who have already brought their families to Russia, received a residence permit or even Russian citizenship.
The new reality is coming already at the household level. How it will be, time will tell, but obviously things will not change for the better, experts conclude.