Posted 3 марта 2022, 10:45
Published 3 марта 2022, 10:45
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Paradoxically, but true: CIAN analysts note that since February 28, after raising rates, a sharp increase in demand has been recorded in the housing market. During the day, the number of ad views increased by one and a half to two times. Mortgage rates have reached phenomenally high values, so the surge in demand is either buyers with real money, or those who received loan approval before the 20th of February, experts explain.
So there is potential demand. But will these buyers reach realtors and sellers and lead to real deals?
“I have the impression that the sellers of “secondary” housing have begun to take their prices out of their heads. Yesterday a contract for the selection of real estate was concluded, an agreement was reached with the owner of the apartment, but due to the growth of the dollar, the seller raised the price by 200 thousand. I'm trying to explain that the dollar does not affect real estate, but they don't listen to me”, - says realtor Yelena Tomme to Novye Izvestia.
“There was already an agreement, an advanced apartment, secondary housing, and suddenly the seller raises the price by a million. The deal is stopped”, - says Yulia Bituse, head of the Mayak real estate agency.
“Real estate transactions, despite the demand, are now rare due to the inability to take out a mortgage. Citizens are putting them off for an indefinite period”, - said Sergey Shloma, director of the secondary market department of the real estate company Inkom-Nedvizhimost.
Mortgages have experienced a real storm these days. Rates soared to 20% and became simply unaffordable for the majority.
“We started one transaction with mortgage lending these days, but after Alfa-Bank raised the rate, the lender had to pay 180 thousand instead of 80 thousand a month! It turned out to be impossible, the deal had to be forgotten. Banks themselves do not know what will happen next. There is talk that mortgages will be issued at 30-40%. And in the current conditions, they don’t particularly want to get involved with “mortgage holders”: today a person works, and tomorrow he will be laid off. As far as I know, banks have already been given lists of professions whose representatives may become insolvent in the near future. As far as I know, there are designers, builders, lawyers, bank employees in it, no matter how ridiculous it may sound”, - Yulia Bituse, head of the Mayak real estate agency, told NI. - Banks now do not know what will happen next. But everyone understands that with mortgage lending there will be a high probability of non-payments, and who wants to deal with non-payers? »
“Increasingly, cases of banks refusing to approve mortgages without giving reasons,” our experts report. And some banks have stopped issuing mortgages altogether. "NI" confirmed this in the banks "Opening" and "Tinkof".
“20% for mortgages is actually a restraining barrier that will not allow attracting this money, at least from reasonable people. It is unlikely that they will take a long-term loan at such interest”, - says Alexei Belousov, General Director of the Association of Builders of St. Petersburg.
Experts agree that mortgages will become unaffordable. But then why and due to what such a jump in demand in the housing market?
In fact, there is an active demand in the housing market today for the purchase of apartments for cash. People who, before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, for various reasons, could not and will no longer be able to convert their savings into foreign currency, hastened to invest in real estate. But there are not so many people with cache. The market won't last long on their money...
“Most of all customers in the primary housing market are interested in small-sized inexpensive apartments. As a result, in this segment there will be the highest price growth. At the same time, there is a risk of acquiring a low-liquid asset at a high cost, but not everyone pays attention to this”, - says Mikhail Sofronov, head of the Vladis real estate agency.
According to him, the greatest excitement is now formed around projects that have already been commissioned or projects at a high stage of readiness. Clients think that they are more reliable in comparison with projects under construction or just starting up. Real estate under construction has already added up to a third of the cost. “The planned increase in prices in our company will take place ahead of schedule. Already now we see that real estate under construction has risen in price by 20-30%, in some projects - even more”, - predicts Denis Zasedatelev, head of Lenstroytrest.
The question arises: what will happen to equity holders who bought apartments, for example, at the stage of excavation? After all, the prices of building materials are expected to rise. “I think we are in for a series of bankruptcies, unfinished projects, frozen objects, deceived equity holders. Those who have invested can terminate the contracts and request a refund from the bank. As far as I know, Alfa-Bank has already gone in this regard to meet its customers, they are being returned the money invested in the mortgage”, - Yulia Bituse, head of the Mayak real estate agency, told NI.
Where is the exit?
It seems that developers are entering a difficult period, and they will have to make concessions and manipulate. But do not forget that real estate sellers have other tools to support demand: installment plan, reduced initial payment, trade-in for apartments. But all of this at the snap of a finger will not be able to replace the share of mortgage sales. According to our experts, mortgage lending in Russia has reached 80%.
Will this mean that the construction complex will have problems? Indirectly, this is indicated by the statement of the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Khusnulin, who said that the Russian government is developing an anti-crisis plan that "will prevent the collapse of the construction market." The report says that representatives of the industry discussed with the head of the Ministry of Construction Irek Fayzullin and the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov the need to increase advance payments to state construction contractors up to 100%. This will allow them to purchase building materials directly from factories without intermediaries and overpayments.
"The Russian Ministry of Construction confirms the need for industrial capacity - construction sites will continue to work", - Khusnullin said.
No one doubts that the government will help the construction complex. But who will help equity holders and mortgage borrowers?