Big bargain: why the Arabs refused Biden to increase oil production

As you know, in the hope of finding a replacement for Russian oil, US President Biden decided to turn to the leaders of the oil-producing countries of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia so that they increase the production of this energy carrier. However, they refused telephone conversations with Biden about the situation around Ukraine and the possibility of increasing oil production to reduce world prices, according to The Wall Street Journal .

“The leaders of the two Middle Eastern states refused to negotiate with Biden, who wanted to discuss the situation around Ukraine and the possibility of increasing oil production to reduce world prices.

"There were expectations for a phone call, but it didn't happen," a U.S. official said of Biden's plans for talks with the Saudi crown prince. According to him, it was supposed to be about increasing oil production due to rising energy prices in the face of Western sanctions against Russia.

A similar decision to refuse to conduct telephone conversations was made by the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

After the two leaders of the Middle East countries refused to communicate with the head of the White House, both of them held telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin last week.

It is no secret that Biden started negotiations with the leaders of all the oil-producing countries of the world not from a good life: gasoline prices in the United States are already at a historical high. One-third of Americans drive less due to higher gas prices. At the same time, US relations with oil-bearing countries - Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia - leave much to be desired.

Americanist Malek Dudakov comments on this situation: “The Gulf countries, longtime partners of the United States, simply ignore Biden's persistent calls with requests to increase oil supplies to America. At the same time, the authorities of Saudi Arabia and the UAE prefer to contact Russia instead of the United States - and do not participate in sanctions pressure on Moscow.

Crown Prince bin Salman had a very warm relationship with Trump. Under Biden, they deteriorated sharply: the 46th US president refused to support Saudi Arabia in the Yemen conflict, removed the Houthis from the list of terrorists and condemned the murder of journalist Khashoggi in Turkey.

Riyadh is dissatisfied with the attempt to hastily renegotiate the Iranian nuclear deal - now it is desperately needed for the United States to start importing Iranian oil. If this deal is renewed, Saudi Arabia promises to start developing its own nuclear program to counterbalance Iran.

Now Biden, as expected, received a “response” for taking the risk of breaking off relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf. It was on them that the petrodollar system was kept for the last 40 years. In the context of the actual freezing of these relations, the United States found itself on the verge of an energy crisis in the spirit of the 70s.

To avoid a sharp economic shock, Biden had to soften the embargo on Russian energy carriers - it will allow them to be purchased under old contracts for another 45 days. By this time, the active stage of the Ukrainian crisis will probably be over - then the embargo can be lifted retroactively.”

Network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan also believes that the Arabs' demarche was caused not so much by a desire to please the Kremlin, but by purely intra-regional considerations. However, the analyst believes that the parties will still be able to agree:

“The Kingdom and the UAE demand that the United States support them in the Yemeni conflict and “other” issues of interest to them. Dissatisfaction is caused by the US attempt to remove restrictions from Iran. Realizing the inevitability of the resumption of the "Iranian deal", the Arab monarchies are demanding the inclusion of conditions that limit Iran's ability to provide assistance to its allies from the Ansar Allah group.

The states absolutely do not want to get into this conflict, since it has no prospects for settlement. The civil war in Yemen between North and South is a permanent process. You can draw arrows on the map for years and decades, root for one side or the other of this conflict, but it is practically eternal. The traditional North and the industrial South of Yemen are a conflict between town and country in a stagnating country.

No one can win this conflict.

It is clear that in a situation where the United States suddenly urgently needed something from the Arabs, they are trying to create a negotiating position in order to somehow change the current dead-end balances in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. There is little chance of this, since the States really need to find about 4 million barrels of oil now, and there are three possible sources - Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela. Moreover, all three must be involved, otherwise the problem cannot be solved.

All three countries that suddenly felt their need, naturally, will set conditions. And you will have to negotiate with each separately, without closing the gate for others. Therefore, the demarche of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is most likely temporary. They will bargain for something, but definitely not much.