Posted 11 марта 2022,, 13:52
Published 11 марта 2022,, 13:52
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Almaty lawyer Yerzhan Yessimkhanov analyzed in his publication the difficult situation that arose in Kazakhstan in connection with the events in Ukraine. Recall that in early January, Kazakhstan itself experienced dramatic events from which it has not yet recovered: “Of course, there is not enough good for Kazakhstan. You can think of options as much as you like and remember the old stupid saying that in Chinese a crisis means an opportunity, but it is already obvious that the events on the territory of Ukraine have created many problems for our country.
We ourselves destroyed our reputation as such a place for many years over trifles, then it was dealt a severe blow in January, and now we are also a country with an aggressive and unpredictable neighbor, moreover, we are closely connected with it economically. The interest of Russian business, caused by the war, does not count - this is not yet an investment, but a desperate attempt to get out.
Overnight, the logistics chains that helped to import to Kazakhstan everything necessary for everyday life that we do not produce, that is, in principle, almost everything, collapsed. Over the past two weeks, I have talked to various people who import everything to Kazakhstan, from alcohol to diapers, from coffee to industrial equipment. A very significant part of all this production came to us through Russia. These chains will gradually rebuild, but it will take time and create shortages.
Since the exchange rate of our national currency has fallen by twenty percent in two weeks, everything imported will become more expensive. And this, I repeat, is almost everything. But as far as imports are concerned, this is not the only problem.
Kazakhstan imports from Russia a huge amount of essential goods - grain, sugar, meat, dairy products. Yesterday Russia introduced restrictions on the export of sugar and grain. For Kazakh producers, this is not bad, but they are not able to cover all the needs of the market. It is clear that all this will be purchased somewhere else, but this is again time and again a rise in price, which means there is a shortage again. And we are talking about essential goods that absolutely everyone needs, not just about some expensive imports.
As a result of the depreciation of the tenge, the rise in the cost of products and the closure of businesses, we will get a qualitative drop in the standard of living of the population, and in the very near future. And this is fraught with a social explosion. Let's not forget that no matter how the January events ended, they started because of gas prices, that is, because of a social problem.
This set of problems is what awaits us all in the near future. What you need to prepare for at the level of every family, every business and the country as a whole. And the strangest thing is that I see some attempts to answer these problems at the business level. But I do not yet see any clear answer, any clear program to combat these problems at the country level.
January was tough, yes. But after January, we, Kazakhstan, were offered a coherent program. Economic, and even political to some extent. Taking into account education, youth problems, ecology. Two weeks have passed since the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine. No answer to the problems that are now worrying society - and those listed above, and any others - is not yet visible.
There is such an old word "dazed". Literally, it means "stunned by a blow to a helmet". Now there is a feeling that the people who form the strategy in our country, primarily economic, are just stunned and stunned - at a time when every single business is desperately looking for ways to save itself. But now is definitely not the time for that.
You need to work with business, you need to look for problems and answers to many questions on a daily basis that business cannot solve on its own. What to do with Russian business that is looking for ways to relocate? What to do with logistics? How to protect the Kazakhstani market in conditions when customs restrictions do not work? How to close the need for essential goods? What to do in a situation where the population in large numbers will not be able to pay their debts?
And people - people need a clear message. We need a direction of movement. Need a program. Like those that Ukrainian President Zelensky sends to the whole world on a daily basis from the shelled capital. The fact that the state does not just wait for what the neighbor will do and performs its functions in some kind of semi-automatic mode, but controls the situation and understands what to do.
Otherwise, our people will again feel that they are going in approximately the same direction as the Russian warship. With all the ensuing consequences".