Survive in the new reality: what professions will be in demand in the near future

Irina Mishina

Today, the recruitment market is frozen. Job search platforms say that at the moment, companies and job seekers are in shock: they do not know what to do next. However, some trends, if they do not knock on the door, are already clearly visible through the window. This is especially true for IT people, whom the state is trying to keep by any means.

The most sought after and the most capricious

If we compare the current situation with the beginning of February, the number of vacancies has increased by about 25%. Vacancies relate mainly to IT and information technology. But there are a lot of specialists who decided to lie low and see how this whole situation ends, an expert in the search for IT specialists explained to NI.

“Now almost the entire economy works on digital platforms, so IT specialists will be in demand more than others. This is especially true for financial technology. The demand for digital financial services is increasing every day. We have created our own payment system "Mir", which has a huge potential, now, due to Russia's disconnection from SWIFT, there will be a need to create alternative payment systems. In the near future, specialists in the field of information security, as well as monitoring the transparency of transactions, will be in demand”, - Tatiana Abankina, director of the Institute for the Development of Education at the Higher School of Economics, told NI.

Today, the average salary in the IT industry is 108,000 ₽. In Moscow - 150,000 ₽, in St. Petersburg - 120,000 ₽, in other regions - 80,000 ₽. Against the background of the average salary in Russia, which, according to Rosstat, is 48,390 rubles, IT people look more than well off.

The demand for all IT specialists was also confirmed to us in the department of social and labor relations of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia (FNPR). “Now, due to the current situation, the demand for IT specialists will increase even more. Russia needs its own digital platforms in order to develop technologies, to conduct video conferences, it needs its own payment systems, its own software resources”, - Yelena Kosakovskaya, deputy head of the department of social and labor relations of the FNPR, told NI.

However, IT-shniks are in no hurry to respond to proposals. Specialists in the labor market state that IT candidates are increasingly refusing offered vacancies, citing the fact that they are considering the option of moving abroad. This applies mainly to young people. As NI has already reported, after February 24, queues of IT specialists fleeing the country line up at the Russian border. All this was unexpected and at the same time expected: after all, the IT industry primarily implies international interaction. And over the past 2 weeks, software that has been created by the whole world for decades has left the Russian market. What the departure of Microsoft, SAP, Oracle, Cisco Systems Inc from Russia can lead to, no one can predict yet, because absolutely the entire modern infrastructure of the country depends on the supply of IT giants: the work of banks, retail chains, logistics, rail transport and air traffic, and etc. If we do not urgently create our own Russian alternative to all this, it will be difficult to talk about the future of the country.

Having felt the trend towards emigration, the state is trying by any means to prevent the outflow of programmers abroad, where Russian IT specialists have always been highly valued. In early March, President Putin even signed a decree "On measures to ensure the accelerated development of the information technology industry in the Russian Federation". The document provides for benefits and measures to support the IT sector. One of the most interesting and unexpected preferences of the decree was the deferment from the army and the allocation of funds to improve housing conditions for categories of citizens who have yet to decide. In addition, in the list of the Ministry of Digital Development for the stabilization and development of the industry in the conditions of sanctions imposed by the West, there is an exemption for 3 years for employees of IT companies from paying personal income tax.

In addition to IT, in the field of demanded professions with guaranteed earnings, according to experts on the employment market, there will remain the public sector, as well as medicine, education and consumer goods. Because in any case, people need to eat, drink, heal and learn. Also among the popular specialties in recent days, experts call psychologists. This was stated in particular by career consultant Karina Lebedeva. It is obvious that the changing situation, mass layoffs, the uncertainty of the future, require finding a foothold.

Technologists, engineers and… again lawyers with economists?

The FNPR and the Ministry of Labor and Employment confirmed to us that no special programs for the training and retraining of personnel have been created to date, everything is still under discussion. But some predictions can still be made.

“As far as we know, consultations can now be held with the participation of government members and business representatives on the creation of industries that can provide import substitution. The auto industry, the aviation industry - all this will require restoration, so that we do not purchase technologies and spare parts, but produce them ourselves. And for this, in the near future, qualified engineers, technologists and a skilled workforce will be required. It will also be necessary to raise the domestic agro-industrial complex in the near future, for this, technologists and agronomists will also be needed”, - Yelena Kosakovskaya, deputy head of the department of social and labor relations of the FNPR, told NI.

Recently, we have heard a lot about an overabundance of lawyers, economists and philologists in the labor market. The Rosobrnadzor even announced the excessive training of personnel in these specialties. It got to the point that Russian universities were accused of training "extra" personnel in these specialties. Are lawyers and economists really at risk of becoming “superfluous people” in the near future?

“I notice a different trend. Lawyers and economists are never without work. If they are reduced somewhere, they are very quickly in demand in another structure. I think they will be especially needed in the current crisis, when it will be necessary to build difficult relationships with foreign partners. Plus, now the number of legal entities is growing, in the new conditions this will require competent economists and lawyers”, - says Tatyana Abankina, director of the Institute for the Development of Education at the Higher School of Economics.

Philologists are back in value

The traditional question arises about philologists and journalists, who also produce a lot. Not so long ago, a writer, philologist, associate professor at the Department of the History of Foreign Literature at St. Petersburg State University, director of the Nabokov Museum - Andrey Astvatsaturov admitted that most philologists cannot get a job in their specialty. “In the Soviet Union, as you know, there was a planned economy and everything was subject to distribution, philologists went to work in secondary schools as teachers of English, German, French. Or they went to universities to work as language teachers, that is, the philological faculty trains teachers to a greater extent, in other words, it reproduces itself. Philologists create only philologists… The moment is practice-oriented, it must certainly be present,” Andrey Astvatsaturov believes. Especially in the current conditions, when all the work of specialists in foreign languages can be reduced only to communication with students...

However, Tatyana Abankina, director of the Institute for the Development of Education at the Higher School of Economics , believes that well-trained philologists and journalists are now in great demand. “Recently, I got acquainted with a study on the demand for personnel training, which was conducted under the auspices of the Presidential Administration. The demand for word processors was the highest. Writing advertising blocks, blogging, writing texts, creating video content - all this turned out to be among the most sought-after specialties. Moreover, the demand was even for college graduates. Specialists in video conferencing were also in great demand, all employees who can shoot and work with video. I can predict that if we lose ties with foreign producers of films and TV series for a long time, we will need a large number of our own cameramen, screenwriters and directors who will be able to create “import substitution” in this area, Tatyana Abankina believes.

Is salesman a dying profession?

Who can be out of work in the near future?

It is not difficult to predict that due to the fall in the solvency of the population, the trade sector may suffer significant losses. The collapse in the domestic financial market, the further impoverishment of the Russians will inevitably lead to this. “Now the biggest risk is that, while talking about patriotism, about getting up from our knees, they will tell us: well, hold on ... As it was in the 14th year - a big rise in patriotism, the Russian world, democracy, deoligarchization, deoffshorization ... But in fact somehow it didn’t work out with the Russian world either, 2.5 million population decline since 2016, an excess of mortality over births, a sharp drop in living standards”, - says economist Vladislav Zhukovsky.

“All our trade was based on imports, from clothing to medicines. Now it has all crumbled. And no one will need an army of thousands of couriers. No one will need managers of retail chains, especially since everything has now gone online. Although this will affect, by and large, large cities. In small towns, there are no company stores or brands. There, everyone was content with either the Russian Lada or cheap Korean foreign cars and Chinese jeans. The light industry in the regions is budgetary China, Korea, Vietnam and Uzbekistan”, - said Yelena Kosakovskaya, deputy head of the department of social and labor relations of the FNPR.

“Inevitably, there will be big cuts in Retail, in retail. Large networks began to change, during the pandemic they switched to delivery. There will be no need to stand behind the counters in the near future”, - summarizes Tatyana Abankina, director of the Institute for the Development of Education at the Higher School of Economics.

Changes in the labor market can affect thousands of people. Many will have to focus on demand. But there is a choice, and this, perhaps, is the main thing for today.