Natalia Zubarevich: “The main factor of the new reality is impoverishment”

“The first step is obvious. The strongest devaluation of the ruble, the growth of inflation, the decline in real incomes.

The Central Bank has set the rate for this year at 20%. We will deviate from this.

Inflation of 20% is eating up one-fifth of your income. But we understand that everyone is different, therefore, in general, this is impoverishment. This is the main factor of the new reality.

The second factor of the new reality is the change in the commodity market and the structure of consumption among people. I am speaking not about business, but about people first.

All this means that what is imported into Russia is starting to be imported less and less.

Business is afraid to sell in Russia. Container companies refuse to carry cargo to Russia.

This is not even an embargo, not sanctions... This is a foreign business that is afraid and does not want - that is, these are two components - to work with Russia.

If he doesn't want to, it's a reputational cost. Afraid - does not understand how payments and transactions will take place.

Accordingly, this is a serious impoverishment of the consumer market, especially in terms of medicines.

More than half of the drugs sold in Russia are pure imports.

Say - there are ours. I repeat once again: 80-85% of the so-called substances, the raw materials from which Russian medicines are made, are imported. These are India and China.

China will supply, we pay with it in yuan, but the main supplier is India, this is an international specialization, substances for medicines. How will the payments go there? And how will the cost of substances increase there?

That is, if there may simply be interruptions with purely imported drugs, and we will see this soon, then with the fact that, as it were, Russian, price increases are inevitable as part of inflation, very significant.

Right now, tomorrow, it won't collapse. All businesses have inventory. So far, they've only raised their prices.

Let's sit until the end of March.

But in general - the impoverishment of the market and fewer opportunities to buy.

And from the point of view of everything computer ... You have already seen - foreign companies said that they would not deliver. Well, apparently, waiting for the transition to Chinese products.

This will primarily affect residents of large cities with a modernized consumption structure. In which not 40% goes to food. In Moscow, less than a quarter goes to food, and the rest goes to non-food goods and services.

The situation will affect a bunch of small and medium-sized businesses, of course. Hairdressing salons, I don’t know, but beauty salons, fitness centers, bars-restaurants, further down the list ... This is all a private business.

With a decrease in income, the structure of consumption will shift towards food.

In small towns, this is not to such an extent, people still have a vegetable garden there, it has not reached there.

These consequences concern the most modernized Russian population, those who live in large cities and earn more or less money.

You are losing global mobility, you are losing the opportunity to study outside of Russia.

Yes, all this is quite severe, but, I assure you, for a limited number of Russians. Well, a quarter of Russians, well, 20% of Russians will feel it, and the rest somehow...

Anapa was - Anapa remained, nothing will change much. In addition to prices in the resorts of Anapa. That's how they jump...".

The entire interview with Natalia Zubarevich can be viewed here.